It's been difficult to rank Kyler Murray at times this season, including Week 10 at the Jets. He's played well in tough matchups and struggled at times in others, but hopefully, this is one of his better performances at New York.
In Week 9, we saw the worst of Murray, who scored a season-low 4.8 Fantasy points against the Bears. He only passed for 154 yards with no touchdowns, and he ran for just 6 yards.
But in the two previous games against the Chargers and Dolphins, Murray scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points, and that's the quarterback we hope shows up against the Jets. As of Wednesday morning, I have him ranked at No. 13, which makes him a low-end starter in all leagues.
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Now, this isn't an easy matchup on paper since the Jets are No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and C.J. Stroud was held to 11.5 Fantasy points against New York in Week 9. But prior to that, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and the combination of Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett each scored at least 19.9 Fantasy points against the Jets.
Allen, Wilson, and Maye all had rushing touchdowns, and Maye ran for 46 yards and a touchdown in the first half before suffering a concussion in Week 8. I'm hopeful Murray will make plays with his legs -- and plenty of them -- in this game.
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For the most part, I consider Murray an auto start at quarterback. I'd love for him to be more consistent and avoid what happened against the Bears, but that's not realistic. That said, he has too much upside to ignore, and I'm hopeful that upside is on display against the Jets this week.
QBs to Start
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Darnold comes into Week 10 having scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points in each of his past two games, and he should stay hot against the Jaguars in this matchup. Jacksonville is No. 1 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and six of the past seven quarterbacks against the Jaguars have scored at least 24.8 Fantasy points. Darnold has top-five upside in Week 10.
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Two quarterbacks in the past four games against the Saints have scored at least 28.1 Fantasy points, and New Orleans just traded its best cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, to Washington on Tuesday. Cousins has scored at least 23.8 Fantasy points in each of his past two games, and he should stay hot this week on the road. He has top-five upside heading into Week 10.
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We got a little lucky that Stafford scored 21.9 Fantasy points in Week 9 at Seattle because his second of two touchdowns came in overtime. That said, Stafford was also unlucky that Puka Nacua was ejected in the first half for throwing a punch. Nacua and Cooper Kupp will be on the field against the Dolphins, and that receiver combination puts Stafford in play as a top-10 Fantasy option in Week 10. Miami has also allowed the past two opposing quarterbacks to score at least 26.2 Fantasy points.
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Goff's first outdoor game of the season in Week 9 at Green Bay wasn't great, with his Fantasy production at 11.6 points, but he should rebound in Week 10 at Houston. In four games prior to Week 9, Goff scored at least 21.5 Fantasy points in each outing, and he should be in that range again in Week 10. The Texans have allowed three of the past four opposing quarterbacks to score at least 22.8 Fantasy points, and Goff gets Jameson Williams back in Week 10 following his two-game suspension.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Tagovailoa had a solid outing in Week 9 at Buffalo, where he missed on just three of 28 pass attempts for 231 yards and two touchdowns, and he scored 21.5 Fantasy points. I'm expecting another quality performance from Tagovailoa against the Rams, who have allowed the past two opposing quarterbacks to score at least 22.2 Fantasy points. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, and the expected point total is 50 points. That bodes well for Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford having a shootout.
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Herbert is getting hot at the right time, and he has scored at least 23.5 Fantasy points in each of his past two games. He's worth starting again heading into Week 10 against Tennessee, and the Titans have allowed two of the past three opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21.7 Fantasy points. Herbert could end up as a top-12 quarterback in Week 10.
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Jones scored a season-high 28.4 Fantasy points in Week 9 against Washington, and I'm expecting him to stay hot against the Panthers in Germany. Carolina is No. 4 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and two of the past three quarterbacks against the Panthers scored at least 28.8 Fantasy points. Jones has played four games outside of New Jersey this season, and he scored at least 22.3 Fantasy points in three of them. I hope the matchup, along with playing abroad, helps Jones have another big game in Week 10.
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QBs to Sit
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Nico Collins (hamstring) could return in Week 10 against the Lions, but I'm not sure that's enough to trust Stroud as a starting Fantasy quarterback. Collins played in the first five games of the season (he left Week 5 against Buffalo after catching two passes for 78 yards and a touchdown), and Stroud only had two outings with more than 17.9 Fantasy points. Without Collins, Stroud has scored 11.5 Fantasy points or less in three of four games, and Houston also lost Stefon Diggs (knee) for the season in Week 8. Detroit is No. 9 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and has done well to limit Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford to 18.3 Fantasy points or less this season. I would only start Stroud in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 10.
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Rodgers has scored at least 21.3 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, including a season-high 26.3 points in Week 9 against Houston in the first game where Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams did something of significance at the same time. But I don't know if the Cardinals qualify as a good matchup after holding Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Caleb Williams to 16.7 Fantasy points or less in each of the past three games and the only quarterback to score more than 18.5 Fantasy points against Arizona this season without a rushing touchdown was Jordan Love in Week 6. Rodgers is more of a bust alert than a must-sit quarterback, but I don't love the matchup for him this week.
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Mayfield continues to surprise us despite the loss of Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring), and he also didn't have Jalen McMillan (hamstring) in Week 9 at Kansas City when he scored 22 Fantasy points. That's now 50.3 Fantasy points in two games without his top receivers, but it's tough to feel confident about Mayfield against the 49ers in Week 10. Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 18.7 Fantasy points against San Francisco this season and none since Week 5, including matchups with Geno Smith, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott. Mayfield is more of a bust alert than a must-sit quarterback, but I don't love the matchup for him this week.
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Nix had the chance for a better game at Baltimore in Week 9, but he missed some open receivers for big plays. He ended up with 17.7 Fantasy points, which is fine, but that was a favorable matchup. I don't like the matchup at Kansas City in Week 10, and Nix is only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues. The Chiefs have only allowed three quarterbacks to score more than 18.9 Fantasy points and one since Week 2. I'm expecting Nix to stay under 20 Fantasy points in Week 10.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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Mahomes just had his best game of the season in Week 9 against Tampa Bay with 30.5 Fantasy points, and it's also the first time all year he has consecutive outings with at least 20 Fantasy points (he had 22.2 points at Las Vegas in Week 8). But after facing the Raiders and Buccaneers in back-to-back games, things should get a little tougher against Denver, even at home. Only one quarterback has scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Broncos this season, which was Lamar Jackson in Week 9. Mahomes combined for just 24.9 Fantasy points against Denver in two games in 2023, and I'm not expecting a big performance from him in Week 10. He's only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
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