Heading into last week there was quite a bit of talk about how much deeper tight end is this year. This is nothing new; we do it every year. I think I even did it earlier this year. And it almost always ends up the same way.
The truth is, tight end has been a little bit deeper this year. Through Week 10 we have 12 tight ends averaging at least 10 Fantasy points per game. That's more than we've had each of the past two seasons. But not by much, we had 11 in both 2019 and 2020. And that includes Rob Gronkowski, who has only played four games and George Kittle, who has only played five. It also includes Dawson Knox and Hunter Henry, who have built their house of cards entirely on an unsustainable touchdown rate.
In other words, tight end is still a debacle.
That's what makes it so surprising that Dan Arnold is still only 51% rostered. I think that's at least partially because his time in Carolina pulls down his scoring average. But Arnold has now scored at least 10 PPR Fantasy points in four of his past five games, and that's without a touchdown. He's like Bizarro Hunter Henry, and I'd much rather bet on Arnold's catches and yards holding up than Henry's touchdowns.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 11:
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Arnold is the only tight end widely available who I think is actually more than a streamer. In fact, I think what we've seen the last month is closer to his Fantasy floor than ceiling, because he hasn't yet reached the end zone.
Engram and Arnold are the only tight ends who have scored double-digit Fantasy points in each of their past three outings. Yes, the bar is that low at tight end.
Thomas would be No. 2 on the list if we knew he was actually playing. For now he's more of a stash than a streamer, but he could be a top-12 guy rest of way once he gets back.
It's much easier to pass on Jacksonville than to run against them, so I'd expect a little uptick in volume for Kittle this week against a bad secondary. Kelce is right there with Kittle, but I would expect his roster rate to be higher, which is a nice tiebreaker.
He just saw one target in a game! Does it get any more contrarian than that? In all seriousness, Hockenson's targets have bounced all over the place this season and I expect them to bounce back in Week 11.
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Heath's Projections
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