The projections you see below and the rankings on our rankings page all assume T.Y. Hilton and Will Fuller are going to miss Thursday night. But they're both listed as questionable and game time decisions, so let's take a look at their prospects early to prepare for the possibilities of them playing.
Hilton has seen a 27% target share so far this season and saw a season-high 11 targets in the Colts' Week 7 game against the Texans. Even at his reduced efficiency this year, I'd project him for six catches and 75 yards with a very good chance for a score. That would make him a borderline No. 1 receiver if it wasn't for his re-injury risk.
Fuller scored 53.7 PPR points in Week 8 against the Falcons. He's scored 43.3 points over the rest of the season. He is the very definition of a boom-or-bust wide receiver and he's also one of those guys who makes the whole project of doing projections seems pretty silly.
I'd expect him to see six or seven targets which would mean something like 4 catches for 50 yards and a coin flip shot at a score. That's a No. 3 with upside, but also with a risk of re-injury.
Week 12 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 12 at this time. Here's what it means:
Deebo Samuel could be a solid No. 3 or better.
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N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers will both have more opportunity.
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Alex Erickson should see a boost in targets.
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James Washington looks like the Steelers No. 1 receiver in Week 12.
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James Washington looks like the Steelers No. 1 receiver in Week 12.
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N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers will both have more opportunity.
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Numbers to Know
- 1,192 - Air yards for John Brown, second in the league to Mike Evans. It's a difficult schedule upcoming, but I can't sit him.
- 50% - Share of Texans' air yards the past month for DeAndre Hopkins.
- 8.2 - Michael Thomas needs to average 8.2 catches per game to break Marvin Harrison's record for receptions in a season.
- 218 - Air yards for D.J. Chark in Week 11. The return of Nick Foles seems like a good thing for Chark.
- 3.2 - Average depth of target for Larry Fitzgerald in Week 11. Even with the touchdown, I'm not excited about holding him through his bye.
- 55 - Targets for D.J. Moore in his past five games. The touchdown regression hasn't hit yet but he's still been awesome in PPR.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
Washington may just be the No. 1 receiver for the Steelers against the worst defense in football. My only hesitation is Mason Rudolph's propensity to check down and the fact that the Steelers may not need to throw much.
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Slayton has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants and could be the second option in the passing game if Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are both out. He saw 14 targets in his last game and has four touchdowns in his last three.
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Brown has been up and down this season but as of Thursday we're projecting Corey Davis to be out for Week 12 and that should mean more opportunity, even if that wasn't the case the last time we saw the Titans. The rookie is averaging 9.9 yards per target this season and he'll face a Jaguars defense playing their second consecutive road game.
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The Patriots will do their best to take away Amari Cooper on Sunday which should leave openings for both Cobb and Michael Gallup. Cobb has topped 100 yards in each of his past two games.
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Both Meyers and N'Keal Harry are in play. I prefer Meyers for Week 12 but Harry could have more upside in the Fantasy playoffs.
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If Tyler Lockett's injury flares back up, Gordon could find a significant role catching passes from Russell Wilson.
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DFS Plays
This might feel like chasing points, but it's every bit as much about chasing matchups. The Buccaneers cannot defend in the secondary and are very good against the run. Matt Ryan should throw 40-plus passes and Ridley should see at least eight of them. This game has the highest over-under on the slate.
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It doesn't seem to matter what DeVante Parker does, no one wants to trust him again. I'll keep playing him at low ownership.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | NON PPR FPTS | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 15.88 | 25.54 |
2 | 2 | 14.85 | 21.39 | |
9 | 3 | DeAndre Hopkins | 12.19 | 20.26 |
7 | 4 | 12.56 | 19.96 | |
5 | 5 | 13.18 | 19.87 | |
8 | 6 | 12.26 | 19.72 | |
3 | 7 | Mike Evans | 13.50 | 18.94 |
4 | 8 | D.J. Chark | 13.40 | 18.92 |
12 | 9 | D.J. Moore | 11.20 | 18.18 |
6 | 10 | 12.58 | 17.92 | |
10 | 11 | 11.95 | 17.23 | |
18 | 12 | John Brown | 10.38 | 16.43 |
17 | 13 | 10.43 | 16.32 | |
13 | 14 | 10.86 | 16.22 | |
15 | 15 | 10.53 | 16.17 | |
16 | 16 | 10.49 | 16.02 | |
11 | 17 | D.K. Metcalf | 11.30 | 15.79 |
19 | 18 | 10.19 | 15.36 | |
14 | 19 | 10.60 | 15.32 | |
23 | 20 | 9.73 | 15.25 | |
20 | 21 | 10.16 | 15.25 | |
21 | 22 | 9.89 | 15.24 | |
26 | 23 | 9.34 | 14.22 | |
28 | 24 | 9.16 | 14.04 | |
25 | 25 | 9.53 | 13.37 | |
35 | 26 | 7.94 | 13.30 | |
24 | 27 | 9.54 | 13.29 | |
22 | 28 | 9.82 | 13.29 | |
27 | 29 | 9.30 | 13.00 | |
30 | 30 | 8.92 | 13.00 | |
32 | 31 | 8.47 | 12.75 | |
29 | 32 | 9.04 | 12.64 | |
31 | 33 | 8.57 | 12.59 | |
34 | 34 | 8.07 | 12.23 | |
39 | 35 | 7.46 | 11.97 | |
33 | 36 | A.J. Brown | 8.33 | 11.92 |
41 | 37 | 6.95 | 11.43 | |
40 | 38 | 7.18 | 11.26 | |
36 | 39 | 7.89 | 11.16 | |
38 | 40 | 7.66 | 11.12 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 12 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
