The weather in Green Bay for Thursday's game between the Dolphins and Packers is expected to be dry and cold with wind around 10 mph. The temperature could be in the high 20s, and that's not good for Tua Tagovailoa based on history.
Tagovailoa is only 1-7 with nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions when the temperature is below 50 degrees. He's not worried about that, but Fantasy managers might be concerned.
"I'm excited to kill narratives, so let's go," Tagovailoa said Sunday. "Bring it on."
He's playing well of late with at least 21.5 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, including at least 29.5 points in his past two outings at home against Las Vegas and New England. But along with the weather, this Packers defense is a tough opponent.
Green Bay is No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and only Jalen Hurts in Week 1, Sam Darnold in Week 4 and Trevor Lawrence in Week 8 have scored at least 20 Fantasy points. That includes matchups with Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff and Caleb Williams.
No ad available
I'm hopeful that Miami's new style of play this season -- get the ball out quick and have sustained drives -- helps Tagovailoa in Week 13, but I'm skeptical. I would only start him in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
As for Jordan Love, I'm slightly more confident in him than Tagovailoa despite the Dolphins being No. 3 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but I would prefer to use Love in just Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
Love only has one game with more than 20 Fantasy points in his past four outings. And only three quarterbacks against Miami have scored at least 20 Fantasy points (Kyler Murray in Week 8, Josh Allen in Week 9 and Gardner Minshew in Week 11). Love also could be without Romeo Doubs (concussion) as well.
No ad available
This should be a game where De'Von Achane and Josh Jacobs do most of the damage. As for the quarterbacks, this might not be the best week to trust them given the weather for Tagovailoa and the way both defenses have played the entire year.
QBs to Start
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Herbert was a disappointment in Week 12 against Baltimore with just 17.6 Fantasy points, and he failed to throw a touchdown for the second game this season. He was off to a great start with a rushing touchdown on the Chargers' opening drive, but he also had some bad drops from Quentin Johnston during the game. Prior to Week 12, Herbert scored at least 21.8 Fantasy points in four games in a row, and he should get back to that level against the Falcons. Five quarterbacks in a row have scored at least 21.8 Fantasy points against Atlanta coming into Week 13.
| |||||||||||||||
Richardson took advantage of a great matchup against the Jets in Week 11 with 30.1 Fantasy points, and he struggled in a tough matchup against Detroit in Week 12 with 12.9 points. This is another favorable matchup against the Patriots, and I like Richardson as a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. New England has allowed eight touchdown passes in the past two games against Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa, and four of the past five quarterbacks against the Patriots have scored at least 21.3 Fantasy points. It's not ideal that Richardson doesn't have Josh Downs (shoulder), but Richardson should still excel in Week 13, given the matchup.
| |||||||||||||||
Nix continued his push for NFL Rookie of the Year with another strong performance in Week 12 against Las Vegas with 23.4 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 20.1 Fantasy points in six of his past eight games, including three in a row. The Browns have allowed three of the past four quarterbacks to score at least 22.5 Fantasy points, and Nix should be considered a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues in this matchup at home.
| |||||||||||||||
Stafford got a late touchdown in Week 12 against Philadelphia to score 23.2 Fantasy points, and he has now scored at least 21.9 points in four of his past five games. Two of the past four quarterbacks against the Saints have scored at least 28.1 Fantasy points, and I consider Stafford a borderline starter most weeks when Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are on the field.
| |||||||||||||||
Goff is back home for Thanksgiving, and both of those scenarios have been positive for him. Goff is averaging 31.8 Fantasy points in his past three games in Detroit, and he has scored at least 21.6 Fantasy points in his past two games on Thanksgiving. The Bears are No. 2 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but Jordan Love and Sam Darnold each scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points against Chicago in the past two weeks. I'll trust Goff in this matchup as a low-end No. 1 quarterback in all leagues.
| |||||||||||||||
Sleepers (Start/Sit)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Smith has struggled the past two games against San Francisco and Arizona with fewer than 16 Fantasy points in each outing, but he should rebound this week at the Jets. Five of the past six opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 19.9 Fantasy points, including Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson, each scoring at least 30.1 points. This is a game where Smith can use his legs since the opposing quarterback against the Jets has run for 59 yards or scored a rushing touchdown in six games in a row. Smith has two rushing touchdowns and three games with at least 30 rushing yards this year.
|
Stroud has scored fewer than 20 Fantasy points in six games in a row, but he came close to ending that streak in Week 12 against Tennessee with 19.7 points. He needs to eliminate the turnovers since he has five interceptions in his past three games, but he has a great matchup against the Jaguars in Week 13. Jacksonville is No. 1 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and only three quarterbacks this season have failed to score at least 20.6 Fantasy points. Last year, Stroud scored at least 24.6 Fantasy points in each game against the Jaguars, and this game feels like the perfect slumpbuster for Stroud in Week 13.
|
Carr is playing well coming into Week 13 against the Rams, and hopefully, he stays hot at home. He scored at least 22.7 Fantasy points in each of his past two games against Atlanta and Cleveland. And he's reached that threshold in three of four games at home this season. Three of the past five quarterbacks against the Rams have scored at least 21.9 Fantasy points, and Carr is a strong starter in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 13.
|
QBs to Sit
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The Murray roller coaster continued in Week 12 at Seattle when he scored 10.3 Fantasy points, which is the second time in three games he scored 10.3 points or less. He's also scored 16.2 Fantasy points or less in three of five road games this season, and the Vikings come into Week 13 at No. 13 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Only four quarterbacks this season have scored more than 20 Fantasy points against Minnesota, and the Vikings are No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks this year at 95 yards with one rushing touchdown.
| |||||||||||||||
Rodgers has actually scored 20.1 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, and he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 7 at Pittsburgh. But I don't love this matchup for him, and Seattle just held Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy to a combined 444 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the past two games. Purdy had a rushing touchdown to get over 20 Fantasy points, but Murray was held to 10.3 points in Week 12. And the Seahawks have allowed six passing touchdowns and six interceptions in their past five games against Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Purdy, and Murray.
| |||||||||||||||
Cousins has four games all season with more than 20 Fantasy points, and two of them came against Tampa Bay. He hasn't accounted for a touchdown in his past two games, and he has combined for 15.1 Fantasy points over that span against the Saints and Broncos. Now, the Chargers have struggled lately against Will Levis, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson, who each scored at least 23.1 Fantasy points in the past three games. But most of the quarterbacks who have done well against the Chargers this season have done so with their legs, and Cousins isn't going to help himself in that area. He's only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues.
| |||||||||||||||
Winston has scored at least 29.6 Fantasy points in two good matchups this season against Baltimore and New Orleans, and he scored 13.5 points or less in two bad matchups against the Chargers and Pittsburgh. This is a bad matchup at Denver, so you should sit Winston in the majority of one-quarterback leagues. The Broncos are No. 5 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and Lamar Jackson, in Week 9, is the lone quarterback with more than 20 Fantasy points against Denver this season. Winston is only worth using in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 13.
| |||||||||||||||
The Colts aren't a good matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and Maye is only worth starting in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 13. In their past five games, only Sam Darnold had a huge outing with 25 Fantasy points in Week 9, which includes matchups with C.J. Stroud (14.4 Fantasy points), Josh Allen (18.1), Aaron Rodgers (20.1) and Jared Goff (10.8). Maye has scored 17.7 Fantasy points or less in four of his past five games, and I don't expect him to post a huge stat line against Indianapolis, given the recent track record of opposing quarterbacks.
| |||||||||||||||
Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
Projections powered by
Sportsline
It's hard to bench Darnold, given what he's done lately, but this is a tough matchup against the Cardinals. Darnold has scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points in four of his past five games, and he's been exceptional the past two weeks against the Titans and Bears with a combined 52.7 points. But Arizona has also been exceptional against opposing quarterbacks of late, as Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, and Geno Smith have all scored 16.7 Fantasy points or less in five games in a row. Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jordan Love are the only quarterbacks with more than 20 Fantasy points against the Cardinals this season, including matchups with Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy. I would only start Darnold in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues in Week 13.
| |||||||||||||||