I picked the wrong week to get excited about Rome Odunze. For the first time all year, I ranked him as my favorite Bears' wide receiver in Week 12, and he was the only Bears wide receiver who wasn't good in Fantasy. But when you look at the Week 13 projections, they're still bullish on him. What gives?
It's the data.
For starters, Odunze leads all Bears with an average of 13.3 yards per reception. D.J. Moore is averaging 10.5 yards per catch, and Keenan Allen is at 9.4. While Odunze has only caught 56% of his targets, his 7.4 yards per target is also the best of the trio, with Moore at 7.1 and Allen at a miserable 5.2. Moore has a slight edge in per route data, at 1.29 yards per route run, with Odunze at 1.26 and Allen at 1.15. Moore has run 17 more routes than Odunze since the team's Week 7 bye but only four more since Thomas Brown took over as Offensive Coordinator.
Speaking of Brown, in the two games that he has called plays, Allen has 23 targets, Odunze has 20, and Moore has seen only 14. Moore has been the best for Fantasy purposes because he's caught all 14, but that's a huge difference in target share that, if it continues, points towards big problems for Moore and better days ahead for Odunze.
All of that is to say that in my early Week 13 projections, you'll see Odunze at WR25, Allen at WR28, and Moore at WR29. In the rankings, I have moved Moore one spot ahead of Odunze, but they're all number three wide receivers. To justify staying ahead of Odunze, Moore will need a bigger target share, or at least to continue his edge in the red zone, where he has 13 targets to nine of Odunze and eight for Moore. Oddly, Odunze has the most end zone targets with 10, but he's only scored once.
The big takeaway for many people from last week was that Allen still has Fantasy value. I agree, but so does Odunze.
Here is the rest of the Week 13 WR Preview:
Week 13 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play in Week 13 at this time. Here's what it means:
Michael Pittman is a good flex this week.
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There should be more targets in Green Bay for Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
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Numbers to Know
- 30.5% -- Jaxon Smith-Njgba has a 30% target share over the past two games since DK Metcalf returned.
- 29.1% -- Adonai Mitchell has a 29.1% target per route run rate this season. If Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin are out, Mitchell could run a lot more routes this week.
- 10 -- Tyreek Hill has gone 10 straight games without 100 yards, his longest stretch since 2020.
- 12 -- George Pickens leads all wide receivers with 12 end zone targets this season.
- 7 -- Marvin Harrison Jr. does not have more than seven targets in a game since Week 3.
- 16.9 -- Calvin Ridley is averaging 16.9 PPR FPPG since Week 8 when DeAndre Hopkins joined the Chiefs.
- 22 -- Darnell Mooney has 22 receptions of 15 or more yards. That's second to only Justin Jefferson.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Allen is averaging more than nine targets per game over his last five games, and in Week 12, it finally turned into Fantasy production. He's my third-favorite Bears wide receiver, but in a potential shootout against the Lions, he's still a fine No. 3 option. The floor seems to be eight or nine Fantasy points, and he now has two games on the season with more than 20.
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Moore was a big disappointment in Week 12, but if Cedric Tillman is out, he could be a great option in Week 13. Slot wide receivers are exactly the type of receivers who have found success against the Broncos, and Moore will benefit greatly if Patrick Surtain takes away Jerry Jeudy. Since Jameis Winston took over, Moore has two games with more than 16 Fantasy points and two games with fewer than six.
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Legette faces a bad Buccaneers defense that just lost a starting safety. He's still just a flex, but Bryce Young is playing better football, and Legette just posted his second-highest yardage total of the season.
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I don't want to trust Westbrook's run of big plays when there are no teams on bye, but I do want to add him for Week 14. That's because there are six teams on a bye and Westbrook faces a Jacksonville defense that has surrendered the second-most Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
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DFS Plays
McConkey has at least 14 Fantasy points in three of his last five games. He has a great matchup against a Falcons defense that has been much better against the run than the pass. I expect the Chargers to trend more pass-heavy with J.K. Dobbins out because they don't have anyone else who can run the ball effectively.
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Adams might be overpriced based on his production, but I also think he's underpriced based on his targets. He has 46 targets in five games with the Jets, but only one touchdown and zero 100-yard games. He could follow the path of Keenan Allen this week and finally put those targets to good use. He'll be a DFS tournament winner if he does.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 13 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 13. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to find my projections for every position over at SportsLine.
