D'Andre Swift has been one of the most disappointing running backs in Fantasy Football, maybe the most. He's only picked up 48 yards on 24 rush attempts (2.0 YPC) and 24 yards on six targets (4.0 YPT). Amongst backs with at least 20 touches this season, his 2.57 yards per touch ranks dead last, and more than a yard worse than Ezekiel Elliott. This all comes even though Swift has seen eight men in the box at a very low rate.
All of that is to say that you probably do not want to start Swift in Week 3. I say probably because he is facing a Colts defense that has give up 175 rushing yards per game to running backs, the most in the league. They are also bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed and Fantasy points per game allowed. This is truly a matchup of a running back who has done nothing against a defense that will seemingly allow anything.
These are the types of decisions we have to make early in the year. Do we trust a back we thought was an RB2 against a dream matchup or do we believe what he has shown us through two weeks? The flip side of that question is Devin Singletary, who looked awesome in Week 2 against the Commanders but now faces a much better Browns defense. I'm starting Singletary over Swift this week, but they both rank as flexes.
As always, you can find my full projections -- position by position -- over at Sportsline.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 3 RB Preview:
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Travis Etienne should dominate running back touches for Jacksonville.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
76.2% -- Jordan Mason has handled 76% of the 49ers rush attempts this season. That is the highest mark in the league.
5.04 -- J.K. Dobbins has averaged 5.04 yards before contact per rush attempt. He may be a league winner.
5.24 -- Brian Robinson is averaging 5.24 yards after contact per rush attempt, which leads the NFL.
46.2% -- Amongst qualified backs, Devin Singletary ranks first with a 46.2% avoided tackle rate.
18.5% -- Tony Pollard's 18.5% target share ranks fifth amongst running backs. He looks like a feature back in this offense.
4.0 -- Alvin Kamara is averaging an astounding 4.0 yards per route run. There is regression coming, but he has been wildly efficient in all areas of the game.
Isiah Pacheco is out for six to eight weeks and as of Tuesday morning it appears Carson Steele is the first option to lead the Chiefs backfield. At the very least, we would expect Steele to be the short yardage back, which gives him a chance to be a touchdown-dependent flex. It's possible he sees 15 touches and functions as a true RB2. Assuming Kareem Hunt does not sign, you can spend up to 20% of your FAB on Steele.
Perine is likely just a spoiler for Carson Steele, handling the majority of passing downs and a handful of carries. But Steele is a rookie and has already fumbled once, so there is upside beyond that for the veteran. I will be looking to spend 5-10% of my FAB on Perine on the hope that he receives a bigger share of the load.
Joe Mixon is battling an ankle injury and Akers looked surprisingly spry in Week 2 action. If both Mixon and Dameon Pierce are out, we could see 15 touches from Akers, though he does have a difficult matchup. Don't spend too much on him and view him as a high-end flex if he gets a start.
Hunt is visiting the Chiefs on Tuesday. Until he signs he's a speculative add in deep leagues. If Hunt signs, we wouldn't expect him to have a big role in Week 3 but he would have the upside of becoming a starter in the Chiefs offense for up to a month after he gets back in game shape. If he's a Chief before your waiver run he's worth up to 10% of FAB.
The Dolphins are treating Achane like a workhorse and as long as he holds up to that role you should expect him to be one of the most productive backs in Fantasy Football. We're expecting Skyler Thompson to start in Week 3 and he has targeted running backs on more than 25% of his career NFL pass attempts. Thompson is bad news for everyone in this offense except for Achane, who should have a busy day both in the air and on the ground.
Charbonnet was terribly inefficient on his way to 17.9 PPR Fantasy points and now he's gotten a price bump because of the production. I would expect that will make him unpopular in Week 3 despite the fact he faces a Dolphins defense that was just gashed by James Cook. With Skylar Thompson at QB for the Dolphgins I expect Seattle to be playing from ahead, and Charbonnet to top 20 touches.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
