One of the hot topics coming into the 2024 Fantasy Football season was the huge number of veteran running backs who changed teams this past offseason. I wrote often that historical evidence suggested that veteran running backs who changed teams fared worse than veterans who stayed on the same team. Through three weeks, that has not been the case in 2024.
Saquon Barkley is currently the RB2, Derrick Henry is the RB7, and Aaron Jones is the RB9. J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Tony Pollard are all top 24 backs. Joe Mixon is as well on a per-game basis. It's been a great start to the year for those veterans. If you faded those backs, you probably aren't feeling great about it. If you drafted them, you may be wondering if you should sell high on them.
I am not specifically looking to sell high on all the veterans, but I am on those backs that are more veteran. And that includes backs that stayed on their own teams. Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones are all 29 or older. So is James Conner. You may have missed your sell window with Conner after his dud in Week 3, but I am expecting that window to open back up after he plays the Commanders in Week 4. I do not believe that three outstanding weeks at the beginning of the year does anything to guarantee these older backs will not fall off later in the year. Now is the time they should be fresh.
Just remember what sell high means. I am not suggesting you sell these older backs for what they cost on Draft Day. Sell them based on what they've been, and for Kamara, that's the number one running back in Fantasy Football. He should pull an enormous haul, or he should stay on your roster.
Now, let's get to the rest of the Week 4 RB Preview:
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It is not a great week for running back starters on the waiver wire this week, but Hill could be a good flex. This game with the Bills could easily turn into a shootout, and if the Ravens play from behind, Hill could outsnap Derrick Henry again. He scored 11.5 PPR Fantasy points in Week 1 against the Chiefs, and the Bills have allowed the fourth-most targets to opposing running backs.
Alexander Mattison appears to be the preferred option for the Raiders in short-yardage and on passing downs. He's scored a touchdown each week and has more than double Zamir White's Fantasy production this season. He's no more than a flex for now but could be more if he earns more work.
I wouldn't feel comfortable starting any Bears running back at this point, but Johnson moved into must-roster status with his performance last week. He should be their primary passing downs back moving forward and he was their most effective rusher in Week 3. You just may have to wait a few more weeks before his role is big enough to count on.
The Braelon Allen usage has been frustrating, but Hall is still averaging more than 20 touches per game and more than 20 Fantasy points per game. He's my third-highest projected running back on the main slate, and with a favorable game script, he may be the number one back when all is said and done. He's a great value in comparison to Barkley and Kamara this week.
No one gets too excited to start an underdog on a low-scoring team at running back. But I mostly believe in the Hubbard we saw in Week 3 with Andy Dalton at quarterback. I also believe this Bengals defense is one of the best matchups in the NFL for a running back. Hubbard should see a minimum of 15 highly-efficient touches and will be the best value on the slate if he gets into the end zone again.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
