Patrick Mahomes was my No. 1 quarterback coming into the 2024 season. Four weeks into the season he sits at QB18 per game. He has lost his top two wide receivers and number one running back to injury. He's thrown five interceptions in four games and doesn't have a 300-yard or three-touchdown game yet. 

This week, he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest Fantasy points to opposing QBs. Next week, he's on a bye. The week after that, he's traveling to San Francisco. 

This all begs the question we never thought we'd be asking: Should you drop Patrick Mahomes?

The answer is complicated. In an eight or 10-team league where only one quarterback is started? I wouldn't blame you. In a league where Andy Dalton or Daniel Jones is the best quarterback on the waiver wire? I wouldn't consider dropping Mahomes. For everyone in the middle, I'm probably not, but I am certainly looking at other options to start in Week 4.

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Mahomes has simply not been a great Fantasy QB since 2022. Including the playoffs, he only has one 300-yard game in his last nine starts, and the Chiefs won all of them. They have a great defense, a questionable offensive line, and very limited weapons in the passing game. Unless you get Fantasy points for back-breaking game-winning drives, Mahomes may not be special in Fantasy this year. 

If you're looking to sit him this week, check the waivers section below.

Let's get to the rest of the preview:

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Week 5 QB Preview

Numbers to Know
Matchups That Matter
Waiver Wire Targets
DFS Plays
Projections
QB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 58.4 -- Mahomes has a 58.4 passer rating when holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. In 2023, that number was 83.7. For his career, it is 95.
  • 1,182 -- Geno Smith leads the NFL with 1,182 passing yards but has thrown just four touchdown passes. A little regression, and he's going to be a must-start Fantasy QB.
  • 35.1% -- Deshaun Watson has been pressured on 35.1% of his dropbacks. He's also had a league-high eight passes dropped.
  • 4.9% -- Baker Mayfield has been off-target on less than 5% of his throws, second only to Smith.
  • 7.5 -- Lamar Jackson is averaging a career-high 7.5 yards per rush attempt.
  • 82.1% -- Jayden Daniels leads the NFL with an 82.1% completion percentage.
  • 12.7 -- Anthony Richardson's intended air yards per attempt is still two full yards higher than anyone else.
QB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
Patrick Mahomes QB
KC Kansas City • #15
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs NO KC -5 O/U 42.5

OPP VS QB

30th

PROJ PTS

21.2

QB RNK

15th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

904

RUYDS

61

TD

6

INT

5

FPTS/G

17.3
Deshaun Watson QB
CLE Cleveland • #4
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ WAS WAS -3.5 O/U 44.5

OPP VS QB

24th

PROJ PTS

21.7

QB RNK

17th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

727

RUYDS

117

TD

5

INT

3

FPTS/G

15.7
Jordan Love QB
GB Green Bay • #10
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ LAR GB -3.5 O/U 48

OPP VS QB

29th

PROJ PTS

22.4

QB RNK

4th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

649

RUYDS

6

TD

6

INT

4

FPTS/G

28.3
Geno Smith QB
SEA Seattle • #7
Age: 33 • Experience: 12 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs NYG SEA -6 O/U 43.5

OPP VS QB

30th

PROJ PTS

20.4

QB RNK

11th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

1182

RUYDS

74

TD

5

INT

4

FPTS/G

19.2
Dak Prescott QB
DAL Dallas • #4
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ PIT PIT -2.5 O/U 43

OPP VS QB

31st

PROJ PTS

18

QB RNK

8th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

1072

RUYDS

21

TD

7

INT

2

FPTS/G

20.7
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
Deshaun Watson QB
CLE Cleveland • #4
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ WAS WAS -3.5 O/U 44.5

OPP VS QB

16th

QB RNK

17th

ROSTERED

55%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

727

RUYDS

117

TD

5

INT

3

FPTS/G

15.7
Yes, I know how bad Watson has been. And I know Kyler Murray just struggled against this defense. But he's one of the few QBs in the last calendar year who haven't lit this defense up. Daniel Jones scored 20 Fantasy points against them just three weeks ago. I expect a big time bounce back from both Watson and Amari Cooper in this spot. For the record, I would strongly prefer Sam Darnold, but he's only available in 32% of leagues.
Trevor Lawrence QB
JAC Jacksonville • #16
Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs IND JAC -3 O/U 46

OPP VS QB

12th

QB RNK

16th

ROSTERED

62%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

729

RUYDS

61

TD

4

INT

1

FPTS/G

14.3
The streaming options this week aren't great, but with four teams on a bye, Lawrence qualifies. This is a good matchup against a banged-up Colts defense, and Lawrence is coming off his first two-touchdown game of the season. This was a brutal schedule to start the season, but I still believe Lawrence's best football of 2024 is ahead of him.
One To Stash (QB Preview)
Drake Maye QB
NE New England • #10
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie

Weekly Breakdown

vs MIA NE -1 O/U 35.5

OPP VS QB

14th

QB RNK

NR

ROSTERED

12%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

22

RUYDS

12

TD

0

INT

0

FPTS/G

2
Every couple of weeks I just need to remind you that Drake Maye is available in more than 85% of leagues and there will likely be a rush to the waiver wire as soon as the Patriots decide to start him. He has the ability to be one of the top seven or eight rushing QBs in the league and enough young talent around him that he could be a streamer against the right matchup.
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DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Lamar Jackson QB
BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CIN BAL -2.5 O/U 50.5

OPP VS QB

19th

PROJ PTS

27.4

QB RNK

1st

YTD Stats

PAYDS

858

RUYDS

308

TD

7

INT

1

FPTS/G

25.2
The only way I could see Jackson having a bad day against this defense is if Derrick Henry scores four touchdowns. He might, but maybe you just play one cash game lineup with Jackson and one with Henry. Jackson is averaging 291 yards per game against some of the toughest defenses in the NFL. This will be a welcome break in terms of defensive opponent, but I do expect the Bengals to score enough to keep pressure on him. So does Vegas, as this game has the highest total on the slate.
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Deshaun Watson QB
CLE Cleveland • #4
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.
The Commanders are terrible defensively, and Watson's struggles have caused his price to plummet. So we get a cheap QB at a low roster rate against a bad defense. Did I mention that the cheap QB is averaging 37 pass attempts and 5.5 rush attempts per game? He has massive upside if the Browns can do even a little bit to protect him.
QB Preview
Heath's projections

My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 5. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.