There are currently 11 tight ends averaging double-digit Fantasy points per game. That's a pretty normal year, and it doesn't include Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, or Sam LaPorta, all of which most people still seem to be starting. That might lead some people to talk about how the position is finally deep in Fantasy. I would not be one of those people. Not this time.
I do want to take a second to talk about Kincaid because it's getting harder to believe he's going to turn into the must-start option we projected. He's averaging 8.8 FPPG this season and Week 8 was just the third time all year he's scored double-digit Fantasy points. This isn't an opportunity problem either. He had six or seven targets in each of his last five games. He's averaged 43 yards per game in that stretch.
Kincaid's problem is that he has been mediocre at turning targets into yards and Fantasy points. He's one of 17 tight ends to see at least 100 targets since the start of 2023. He ranks 15th in yards per catch (9.6), 12th in yards per game (40.5), and 11th in yards per target (7.2). Only three tight ends in that group have scored fewer touchdowns than him.
I understand why people are still starting Kincaid. He's a tight end with a 20% target share from Josh Allen. I'm just not sure that's ever going to turn into the type of Fantasy production it seems like it should. And there's a chance Amari Cooper starts to cut into that 20%.
Kincaid has a few weeks to change my mind but I'm not sure we'll be holding him through his Week 12 bye. And if Cade Otton is still available in your league, I'd rather have him rest of season.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 9:
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Dissly has seen an 18% target share over the past two weeks. He ranks stop five at the position in yards per route run. He has three straight games with at least four catches. None of this has shown up in his Fantasy production because he hasn't scored yet, but that's coming.
Henry would be my favorite stream if Drake Maye was starting, but for now we're projecting Jacoby Brissett. Still, he had a 100-yard game earlier this season with the veteran and cored 9.5 PPR Fantasy points without a touchdown last week.
The best tight end in Fantasy Football, George Kittle, is on bye this week. The second best is rookie tight end Brock Bowers and he has a good matchup against a mediocre Bengals defense. Bowers had three straight games with double-digit targets before Spags locked him up. I would expect he jumps right back on the high volume train versus the Bengals.
Ferguson has been a disappointment this season, but I like his chances to bounce back in a game against the Falcons with an over.under of 52.5. He has seen seven or more targets in four of his last five games, he just hasn't reached the end zone this year. I bet that changes in Week 9.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 8 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 8. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
