It's been a fun season for DFS, and I hope you came out in the black. Let's take a look at some strategies for the Week 17 slate, then some player picks, and thanks for reading along all season.
Week 17 tournament strategy session
The deal with Week 17 DFS is you have to be on top of the news. Salary will not be much of an object, as there will be plenty of cheap options getting full-time run. That will include quarterbacks, and there will be cheap stacks available for consideration that can allow you to load up on top names elsewhere if you desire.
At the same time, while one or a few backups will — or at least could — hit, these players aren't starters for a reason, and the ceiling games we're chasing in DFS may be difficult to come by. We saw that with Mike Boone last week, and we've seen it with countless others throughout this season.
That doesn't mean backups don't have ceilings, because they do. And a low-priced guy scoring in the teens can be helpful in its own right. But the all-important ceiling of your roster as a whole is the most pressing thing to keep in mind while you build Week 17 tournament lineups, and that probably means not going too far overboard on the backup plays.
The teams most likely to sit their starters are the Ravens, Bills and Vikings, and each of their coaches have at least addressed the issue in some capacity this week. We seem to be trending toward plenty of backups from those three rosters, and of them I think the Bills are actually the roster I'd be most inclined to target.
Bills backup quarterback Matt Barkley has shown some upside at times in his career, and the Bills are at home against a beatable Jets defense. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III will lead the Ravens against a Steelers team that needs to win, and I'm disinclined to trust Sean Mannion against the Bears should he start for Minnesota.
Then there are more opaque situations like the Texans and Rams, with their coaches each offering somewhat confusing remarks this week. And players like Leonard Fournette, who popped up on the injury list as questionable with a neck injury, could be limited or held out altogether. Fournette has the second most touches in the NFL this season, behind only Christian McCaffrey, and has mostly only been productive as a result of a huge workload.
Malcolm Brown and Ryquell Armstead would both be very interesting options if Todd Gurley or Fournette were to sit, but there's little to suggest those are real possibilities just yet. The Week 17 slate is always fluid, so be ready to react to late-breaking news.
Here are some of the plays I like most as of Friday afternoon.
Position
Even after their disappointing Week 16 loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys still have a shot to make the playoffs if they get a little help. But they need to take care of business first, and I expect them to do that back at home where Dak thrives, against a beatable Washington secondary.
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Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, Jameis threw for more total air yards than any quarterback in any game this season. Prone to chucking the ball around regardless of which team might be coming down with it, Winston's ceiling will always be there, and he's an easy guy to stack this week in what could be a shootout against the similarly pass-happy Falcons.
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McCaffrey's chasing history, as he sits 67 receiving yards shy of joining Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to become just the third player ever with 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He also currently sits 11th in NFL history in yards from scrimmage in a season, but is within 100 yards of the top three and is 215 yards from the all-time mark held by Chris Johnson. The Panthers have made no secret that they are aware of these marks, so if McCaffrey gets hot early, expect a huge workload to aid him in his pursuits.
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Williams returned to a 53% snap share in Week 16, and now Spencer Ware is on IR. The Chiefs need to win, and while we can expect LeSean McCoy to be active, Williams should again lead the backfield and see a combination of solid receiving work and red-zone opportunity. That combination helped him to an easy 18.2 PPR points last week as he caught three passes and scored, and reminded of his big upside if he hits a big play or two.
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Jones showed off his upside once again in Week 16, but that means he's no longer cheap nor will he go under-owned. But that might not matter with Jamaal Williams ailing, as a larger workload for Jones typically leads to points. On turf against Detroit's lackluster defense — and in a game where a Packers win would mean securing a bye — Jones is a guy I want to be overweight on.
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Most of the stats from Week 16's Bengals-Dolphins shootout need to be put in context, but one stands out — Ross saw a ridiculous 283 air yards. I don't care that Andy Dalton threw 56 times, that's still a ridiculous figure. Though Ross caught just six of 13 targets for 84 yards, he played a 79% snap share and the Bengals clearly made an effort to get him the ball down the field. If even half of that carries over to Week 17, he'll have plenty of volume to improve on his Week 16 output.
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Brown got shadowed by Marshon Lattimore in Week 16, which explains his two targets. But because he's a superstar in the making, he still took an end around 49 yards to the house and added a 34-yard catch in a big spot late. Brown is clearly the No. 1 in this offense, and in a better matchup and a game the Titans need to win, I expect him to get back to one of his gaudier stat lines.
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Watson wasn't very productive on his 10 targets in Week 16, catching just five for 43 yards with a score. But they were high-value targets, and he racked up 161 air yards, so I'm willing to go back to the cheaper of the two current starting Buccaneers wide receivers. Breshad Perriman is also very much in play, though.
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Howard has now seen at least five targets and posted at least 45 receiving yards in four straight games. He's finally seeing consistent usage, and the main reason he hasn't posted a better Fantasy total yet is a lack of touchdowns. But he still has plenty of talent and there's simply not enough competition for targets in Tampa Bay to deny him solid opportunity.
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Zach Ertz is banged up, and while he may tough it out in Week 17, he's not a lock to make it through the game. But the reality is Goedert doesn't need Ertz to be out of the lineup; over the past five games, the duo are first and second in targets for the Eagles at 49 (Ertz) and 39 (Goedert). And Goedert's coming off his biggest game of the season, with the Eagles needing a win to get into the playoffs and needing to lean on whatever reliable pass-catchers they have healthy.
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