We're now less than three weeks from the end of the 2026 Major League Baseball season and some of the individual awards races (hello, National League MVP) appear to be over. One that might not be over is the American League Cy Young, though a clear frontrunner has emerged as the likely runner-up falters.
Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler debuted a little over one year ago and now the path looks clear for him to take home the hardware in just his second big-league season. Blue Jays righty Dylan Cease still has a shot, though. It is very clearly a two-man race. To boot, here are the odds for the top four, via DraftKings:
- Cam Schlittler, -1200
- Dylan Cease, +700
- Drew Rasmussen, +8000
- Sonny Gray, +8000
Before we dive into the two main contenders, we should point out that this race is a good illustration of how the paradigm has shifted on pitching awards. Gray is 17-4. If we went back to, say, 1975, he'd be the leader in this race. Instead, he's an afterthought.
Anywho, let's get to it.
Cam Schlittler, Yankees, -1200
I've been predicting all season that, at some point, the Yankees were going to throw Schlittler on the injured list with some mysterious malady to avoid overworking him. After all, between the majors, minors and playoffs last season, he worked 164 innings, his most ever in a single calendar year. Boy, was I wrong. He's up to 30 starts and 178 ⅔ innings. The Yankees surely have designs on making the World Series and it seems it's all systems go with Schlittler.
With that heavy workload, he's been excellent. He's 13-6 with a 2.01 ERA (209 ERA+) to lead the AL. He has a sparkling 0.92 WHIP and has struck out 220 against only 42 walks. The rate stats are incredible and he's racking up the counting stats. This is a very well-rounded case. Sure enough, he leads AL pitchers with 6.7 WAR.
All signs point to Schlittler getting to start on Sept. 13 against the Mets and Sept. 19 in Arizona. Past that, who knows? We'll see how the AL East race shakes out. But it would be shocking to see him not take at least 32 starts this season.
The most recent Yankees to win the Cy Young was Gerrit Cole in 2023. The others: Bob Turley (1958), Whitey Ford (1961), Sparky Lyle (1977), Ron Guidry (1978) and Roger Clemens (2001).
Dylan Cease, Blue Jays, +700
The AL starter in the All-Star Game was the favorite for a while, but he faltered last time out. After coughing up five runs (four earned) in five innings in Sacramento, Cease is now 10-5 with a 2.40 ERA. In 161 ⅓ innings, he's struck out 227 against 67 walks with a 1.04 WHIP. He's at 5.8 WAR, which means Cease is trailing Schlittler in wins, ERA, WHIP and innings pitched. He does have the advantage in strikeouts and leads the AL in the lowest hit rate and home run rate. He's held opponents to a brilliant .177/.266/.268 line this season.
Cease has finished second in Cy Young voting before and it seems like he's headed for another runner-up finish. Again, with Schlittler leading in the rate stats as well as having a decently higher workload, there's little wiggle room here.
There are, however, a few more starts. Cease is scheduled to face the Orioles on Sept. 13 and Rangers Sept. 19. Assuming the Blue Jays are still fighting for a postseason spot (or trying to win Cease the hardware), he'll then take the mound in the final series at home against the Reds.
For Cease to win, he'll need to both finish strong and see Schlittler have a bad outing or two. It's possible, but things sure seem to be heading in Schlittler's direction.
