Which active MLB players will make the Baseball Hall of Fame? The six locks, plus who else is on track
Which active players are already Hall of Famers? How about those on track, with a great foundation or work to do?
By
Matt Snyder
•
13 min read
Another Baseball Hall of Fame season is in the books and we now know that Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltrán will join legends in Cooperstown as the class of 2026.
That also means it's time for our annual exercise of which active players already deserve the "future Hall of Famer" tag, who might be on track, who has an excellent foundation of just a few years, and who's a long shot. Let's take a look here at some of the biggest current names.
I'd like to start, though, by examining three very interesting names right now, given the seasons that these guys put up in 2025.
Tarik Skubal
Skubal won the American League Cy Young in both 2024 and 2025, making him the first repeat AL winner in more than two decades. Coming off his age-28 season, he's set himself up pretty well to possibly win a third Cy Young; every pitcher who has done that so far is either in the Hall of Fame (Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Sandy Koufax), is connected to PED (Roger Clemens) or isn't yet eligible for the Hall (Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander).
Further, the only pitchers to have won two Cy Youngs before their age-29 season are Clemens, Maddux, Kershaw, Martinez, Seaver, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Bret Saberhagan, Denny McLain and Skubal.
With 54 wins, and 889 strikeouts in 766 ⅔ innings, Skubal needs to stockpile a ton more counting stats, but there's plenty of time for that. He's been the best pitcher in the world the last two seasons -- or at least neck-and-neck with the next guy we'll discuss -- and if he keeps that going for four or five more years, he'll be in great shape for the Hall of Fame.
Paul Skenes
He's only made 55 career starts, but Skenes doesn't even turn 24 until May 29. He's already finished with a sub-2.00 ERA twice and won a Cy Young while having started the All-Star Game twice. He's struck out 386 in 320 ⅔ innings. It's difficult to compare Skenes to most Hall of Famers because what he's doing is in some ways unprecedented. To wit, the list of pitchers since the Deadball Era to make at least 50 starts with an ERA under 2.00 before they turn 25 is as follows: Paul Skenes.
Yeah, that's it. If we expanded our search to "all time," we could add five others, including Walter Johnson. If we lowered the criteria to 30 starts, at minimum, we still don't get anyone more recent than 1913 other than Skenes.
Nolan Ryan is the all-time strikeout king. He had 356 through age 23. Skenes has 386. Seaver, a young prodigy, had a 2.47 ERA (129 ERA+) through two seasons through age 23. Skenes is at 1.96 (215 ERA+).
He has the eye test and fame factor too. We might really be watching something special here, right?
Cal Raleigh
We just saw something special from the Mariners' catcher. He set single-season records for home runs both as a catcher and a switch-hitter. He hit 60 homers in a season!
One season does not a Hall of Famer make, of course. Raleigh, though, did himself quite the favor with that monster year. He was already an above-average or even well-above-average catcher through his age-27 season. Then he went into the stratosphere at age 28. Avert your eyes from the batting average without taking into account Raleigh being a very good defensive catcher and recognizing the other factors conspiring against him, such as his ballpark. Just lock in on the 153 home runs, 376 RBI and 313 runs with 18.8 WAR heading toward his age-29 season. He's already 46th all-time among catchers in career home runs.
I don't think Raleigh has another season even close to 2025 in him, but he doesn't necessarily need one to be a Hall of Famer. His track is through the power. Only eight catchers have ever reached 300 home runs; Mike Piazza's 427 is the only figure above 389 (Johnny Bench, who sits second).
Given his age, immense power, ability to avoid the platoon due to switch-hitting and skills behind the plate -- which will keep him in the lineup a lot longer than his triple slash line will say he should -- there's a decent chance Raleigh powers his way into the Hall.
Now, onto the rest of the exercise.
The locks: Six players
This means any of the following players could retire right now and make the Hall of Fame. We aren't assuming things will happen in the future. No, the résumé as it stands is already Hall-worthy. Right off the top, this means any players with less than 10 years of service time can't be included, as the Hall of Fame requires 10 years.
- We don't need to spend much time on Mike Trout, Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer. If you don't know they are already Hall of Famers, I have no idea why you'd be reading this (though I'm still grateful, of course).
- Mookie Betts: He's only 33 years old, but Mookie already has four World Series rings along with an MVP, eight trips to the All-Star Game, seven Silver Sluggers and six Gold Gloves. He's a career .290/.369/.512 (135 OPS+) hitter with a batting title and has led the majors in WAR three times. There are those who won't like his counting stats -- 1,767 hits, 394 doubles, 41 triples, 291 home runs, 913 RBI, 1,166 runs and 196 steals -- but his all-around contributions have him already home for me. Keep in mind he was established as an exceptional defensive right fielder and volunteered to move to the infield, last year rating out as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. For JAWS purposes, he's still listed as a right fielder and is eighth all time behind seven Hall of Famers, sitting ahead of players like Reggie Jackson, Paul Waner, Larry Walker, Sam Crawford, Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki, Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero.
- Freddie Freeman - I examined his case after the World Series. I think Freeman is safely in now.
- Aaron Judge - I think he's in. Sure, he hasn't hit any counting stat benchmarks (yet) and the Yankees haven't won the World Series with him around, but he's won three MVPs and has been, pretty easily, the best hitter in baseball for the last four years (.311/.439/.677 for a 209 OPS+ from 2022-25).
Special Case: One player
Shohei Ohtani only has eight years of service time, but I think his Hall of Fame credentials are already enough to get him in. Let's imagine -- and hope it doesn't happen, because this would suck -- Ohtani suffers season-ending injuries after one game in 2026 and then after one game in 2027 and retires. He'd still be a Hall of Famer. The only thing missing here in 2026 is his 10 years of required service time.
On the cusp: Seven players
It's possible the following players already have Hall of Fame résumés, but it's also possible they wouldn't make the cut. For some, just stay the course. For others, a slight nudge forward solidifies things. To be clear, I think every player mentioned in this section is going to be a Hall of Famer. They just might not make it as things stand today.
- Paul Goldschmidt - His case is either complete or nearing completion. Goldy has 2,190 hits, 477 doubles, 372 homers, 1,232 RBI, 1,280 runs, 174 steals along with an MVP and is above the Hall of Fame standard, per JAWS, for first basemen (just ahead of Todd Helton and Eddie Murray). He should make it, but it isn't a slam-dunk case.
- Manny Machado - It's difficult to envision any realistic scenario where he doesn't make it. You could argue that I should move him up a tier.
- José Ramírez - I could just repeat what I said about Machado here.
- Nolan Arenado - It's funny. Third base has been long known to be under-represented in the Hall of Fame, but I've got three of them listed here, and I think all three will make it. None of them, at present, are locks, though. Arenado sits 20th in JAWS at the position with Machado 18th and Ramírez 19th. Arenado is the one who has the least left in the tank on the field, too. There's a Coors Field stigma to overcome from the first half of his career, but I have a feeling his earned reputation as an all-time great defender can cancel that out.
- Chris Sale - Though he started slow and missed a chunk of the year due to injury, Sale last season showed he wasn't done after his first Cy Young. He's won 145 games with a 3.01 ERA (141 ERA+) and 2,579 strikeouts in 2,084 innings. I think he gets to 3,000 strikeouts and, when he does, we can move him up to the top tier.
- Bryce Harper - If he retired right now, he might not make the Hall of Fame, but c'mon. We all know he's headed there.
- Francisco Lindor - Through his age-31 season, Lindor now has five straight 5-WAR seasons, 1,664 hits, 339 doubles, 279 home runs, 856 RBI, 1,011 runs and 216 steals. He's a .273 hitter with a 120 OPS+ who plays great defense at an incredibly important position. The most statistically similar player through age 31? Cal Ripken Jr.
On track: Seven players
The following players look like they might be headed toward the Hall of Fame, but there's still a little something holding them back and that could be rectified here in the next few years.
- Jose Altuve: Altuve has an MVP, two World Series rings, three batting titles, 2,388 hits and one of the most prolific postseason dossiers we've ever seen. He would already be a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, but that sign-stealing scandal looms large in his case. I have no idea how it's going to go for him with voters. Beltrán's induction certainly helps his case.
- Giancarlo Stanton - There is just one number to watch here: Stanton has 453 career home runs. If he gets to 500, he's got a good shot to make the Hall. He's 36 years old. Will he make it?
- Gerrit Cole - That Tommy John surgery last year was significant. Cole is now 35. If he has a Verlander-like post-surgery career, he'll make the Hall. If not, I don't think there's enough there just yet. Cole has 153 wins with a 3.18 ERA (130 OPS+) and 2,251 strikeouts in 1,954 innings. He's won a Cy Young and two ERA titles. He's also 152nd in pitcher JAWS.
- Salvador Perez - Sal is now above 300 home runs and 1,000 RBI with an outstanding reputation as a leader and working with the pitching staff. He's 32nd in JAWS among catchers, sitting between Russell Martin and Brian McCann, who both fell off the ballot after one year. I think he gets a reputation boost, though, and it'll be close.
- Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and/or Craig Kimbrel: It's difficult to know how voters will treat the next generation of closers. Billy Wagner made the Hall, but it took all 10 years on the ballot. Francisco Rodríguez is in ballot purgatory and he's sixth all time in saves. Jansen is fourth with Kimbrel fifth and Chapman 12th. Chapman had one of the best years of his career last season. I just don't know here, other than that they'll have a decent chance to make it.
Work to be done: 16 players
Here, I will point out a little bit of what needs to come next, because every player here is short of the Hall of Fame but still has a chance to get there. They just have some heavy lifting in front of them.
- Andrew McCutchen: Things are winding down for Cutch and I think he's going to fall shy, at least on the BBWAA ballot. He's a .271/.365/.457 (125 OPS+) hitter with 2,266 hits, 451 doubles, 332 home runs, 1,152 RBI, 1,290 runs and 220 steals. He won an MVP, but is 28th among center fielders in JAWS and his most statistically similar players are mostly Hall of the Very Good types (Chili Davis, Torii Hunter and Luis Gonzalez are the top three).
- Marcus Semien: The bad news here is that Semien is a volume player and last year had a rare injured list stint while also continuing to take a step back in his rate stats. He's now 35 with 1,613 hits, 323 doubles, 253 home runs, 801 RBI, 968 runs and 49.2 WAR. It looks like he'll end up short, but there's always the chance he flourishes in his first two years in New York and gives himself a chance.
- Jacob deGrom: The late start and extensive injury history probably keep deGrom out. His rate stats are ridiculous (2.57 ERA, 151 ERA+, 10.8 K/9, a 5.37 K/BB rate which is the best all time, etc.), but he still only has 96 wins and 1,851 strikeouts in 1,539 ⅔ innings. He's turning 38 years old this season.
- Christian Yelich: A few injuries also might've done in Yelich's chances, but he's still only 34 with a decent foundation in place. There's a good argument he was the best player in baseball from 2018-19. Since then it's been tougher sledding, but he's a .285/.374/.464 (129 OPS+) hitter with 1,741 hits, 327 doubles, 233 home runs and 221 steals.
- Zack Wheeler: A blood clot and thoracic outlet surgery ended Wheeler's 2025 season. He's now going to get a late start in 2026 and turns 36 in late May. He's 113-75 with a 3.28 ERA (123 ERA+) and 1,820 strikeouts in 1,728 ⅓ innings in his career. There's enough here to start with that if he somehow lasts as long as, say, Verlander and pitches like an ace, he can get to the Hall of Fame. It's just unlikely.
- Blake Snell: Two Cy Youngs is a hell of a starting point. He's 33 years old with 81 wins and 1,440 strikeouts, though. His path starts with at least another Cy Young and maybe two more. Then we could talk.
- J.T. Realmuto: It doesn't feel like he can get there, but he's above Perez in JAWS and within striking range of Yadier Molina. You never know.
- Xander Bogaerts: The only reason he's here is 1,822 career hits heading to his age-33 season. If he somehow gets to 3,000, we'll have to discuss.
- Edwin Díaz: He's 38th in career saves and is heading to the best team/organization in baseball at age 31. Watch the cases of Jansen, Kimbrel and Chapman, first, and then see where Díaz ends up for a guide.
- Would take a big late surge: Matt Olson, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and George Springer
Strong foundation: 13 players
These players are several years away from consideration, but there are some who already have that "Hall of Fame" feel with others are building a nice little foundation.
- Skenes, Skubal and Raleigh all reside here. More on them above.
- Juan Soto: The most statistically similar players to Soto through age 26 are Harper, Ken Griffey Jr. and Frank Robinson. Yep.
- Ronald Acuña Jr.: He's still only 28. He won MVP in 2023 with a season for the ages.
- Bobby Witt Jr.: He already has 722 hits, 151 doubles, 34 triples, 105 home runs, 373 RBI, 403 runs, 148 steals and 21.7 WAR. The only Royals position players with multiple 7-WAR seasons are Witt and George Brett. Witt is 25 years old.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Through his age-26 season, Vlad Jr. is already over 1,000 hits with 183 home runs and 591 RBI.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. - The PED suspension certainly will cost him votes, but by then who knows how the electorate as a whole will feel? The numbers already pop for a 27 year old.
- Julio Rodríguez - He's only 25! He already has 654 hits, 112 home runs, 116 steals and 22.9 WAR.
- Garrett Crochet - Crochet was finally, sort of, a full-time starter in 2024 and was very good, though he was limited to 146 innings in 32 starts. Last year, he finished second in AL Cy Young voting to Skubal after going 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 255 strikeouts in 205 ⅓ innings. A few more of those and this becomes a pretty serious discussion.
- Others to watch: Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, Elly De La Cruz
