Top prospect Konnor Griffin, Pirates reportedly interested in extension: What could long-term deal look like?

In about a month's time, we'll learn whether shortstop and hotshot prospect Konnor Griffin has done enough to win an Opening Day roster spot with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Griffin, the No. 9 pick in the 2024 Draft, won't turn 20 until April 24. If he makes the team, he would be the first teenage position player to appear in a big league game since Juan Soto in 2019.

Griffin made his case for the shortstop job emphatically Monday, going 2 for 4 with two home runs against the Boston Red Sox. That includes a two-run shot off $130 million lefty Ranger Suárez and a 440-foot tank out of the stadium.

"I heard very good things about him. Great, great ballplayer. A very good hitter and you can see that," Suárez told MLB.com after the game. "I suppose when you're the top prospect in the game that people expect that from you, and he did it today."

CBS Sports ranked Griffin as the No. 3 prospect in baseball, thanks to his undeniable talent. He hit .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs and 65 steals last year, and reached Double-A as a teenager. Pittsburgh's current shortstop is Nick Gonzales, a second baseman with minimal shortstop experience and poor defensive numbers. Hardly an obstacle.

Here's our prospect write-up on Griffin headed into the 2026 season:

The rap on Griffin during his amateur days was that he had every tool but the hit tool, the most important of the bunch. It was encouraging, then, to see him ease concerns about his swing-and-miss during his first pro season. He connected on more than 75% of his attempts while showing off the power (he cleared the 114 mph threshold) and speed (he stole 65 bases) combination that gave him a high ceiling. Griffin even kept his strikeout rate under 24% during a 21-game stint in Double-A, suggesting that he wasn't just feasting on younger pitchers or those with less raw talent. Knowing when to adjust priors is one of the trickiest parts of evaluating players. Given everything about Griffin's year, it would be silly to ignore how much higher his chances of reaching his star ceiling are now than they were 365 days ago.

There are valid reasons to send Griffin back to the minors to begin 2026. He's never played in Triple-A, has only 21 career games in Double-A, and, again, he's 19. Sending him down for a few months for some fine-tuning -- those two homers are his only two hits in the early going this spring -- ahead of a second half call-up would be perfectly reasonable defensible.

At the same time, the Pirates invested heavily (relatively speaking) to boost what was MLB's worst offense a year ago, and clearly they need a shortstop. Griffin is a special talent and special talents do special things, like debut as 19 year olds. Pairing Griffin with Paul Skenes for as long as possible should be the priority. Putting Griffin on the Opening Day roster would accomplish that.

Regardless of when they call him up, the Pirates surely want to keep Griffin in Pittsburgh as long as possible. The two sides are said to have mutual interest in a long-term extension, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Of course, that doesn't mean a deal will get done. He and the Pirates could have very different opinions of his value and be far apart on dollars.

There is a great benchmark for extending a top prospect before his MLB debut: Jackson Chourio, who inked an eight-year contract worth $82 million with the Milwaukee Brewers in December 2023. Like Griffin, Chourio was one of the top prospects in baseball at the time, and he played only six career games in Triple-A. A deal of that size for a minor leaguer was unprecedented.

It more than worked out though. The Brewers put Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster and he rewarded them with a 3.9 WAR season and a third-place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. Milwaukee identified Chourio as one of their best players in 2024 and beyond, locked him up, and put him on the roster. The Pirates are at a similar point with Griffin.

Chourio's extension is working out well, plus there are two years of salary inflation to consider, so we would have to adjust upward for Griffin. An eight-year deal would take him through his age-27 season and likely run upwards of $100 million. Chourio's contract includes two club options, something Pittsburgh would surely push for in talks with Griffin.

An eight-year extension would allow the Pirates keep Griffin beyond the usual six years of team control, and he would get a big locked-in payday as a teenager, and also potentially a chance to still test free agency in his 20s. That's when players really get paid. Teams have shown they will pay top dollar for a player's peak years (not so much his 30s).

FanGraphs projections give the Pirates at 43.2% chance to reach the postseason. They're at a point where every win they add to the roster would boost their postseason odds significantly. Griffin could flop. He could also be an enormous, season-swinging upgrade over Gonzales. Extension or no extension, putting him at short has to be a serious consideration.