Though it might have to wait until a litany of free agents find their homes, all signs point to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado being traded this offseason. That's the direction the Cardinals are headed and Arenado himself seems on board -- so long as he likes the destination enough to waive his no-trade clause. He's reportedly even open to moving to first base.
Arenado is owed $59 million over the next two seasons, though $10 million of that is being paid by the Rockies and it's always possible the Cardinals pick up some of the remaining money in order to facilitate a trade. Then, in 2027, Arenado is set to make $15 million in his age-36 season.
The eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glover hit .272/.325/.394 (101 OPS+) with 16 homers, 71 RBI and 2.5 WAR last season all while continuing to prove a very capable defender at third base. There's more concern with his drop in slugging, especially with the higher offensive bar a move to first base would entail. That said, he also posted 7.7 WAR and finished third in MVP voting just two years ago, so it's possible there's something left in the tank.
Here are 10 teams that might make sense as a trade partner for the Cardinals. Purely speculative, of course, but enough lines up that it would be doable for any of these ballclubs.
Astros
The Astros immediately come to mind because Arenado is a pull-heavy hitter (per FanGraphs, last season Arenado ranked 23rd in MLB in pull% and it wasn't an outlier) and the Crawford Boxes in Houston could help resurrect his slugging. Arenado will want to join a contender and there aren't many teams listed as obvious contenders in the way the Astros are, given that they haven't missed the playoffs since 2016. There could be an opening at third base if Alex Bregman walks in free agency, but the Astros could also take Arenado up on his offer to move to first base and try to fit both in their payroll. Last season, Houston rolled out a combination of José Abreu and Jon Singleton at the cold corner. In other words, an upgrade wouldn't be difficult.
Yankees
The top priority this offseason for the Yankees is obviously Juan Soto. Once the dust settles there, we'll see where they stand. They have an opening at first base after letting Anthony Rizzo walk in free agency. They could also put Arenado at third and play Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second. Such a move would improve the Yankees' defense -- which proved to be their undoing in Game 5 of the World Series -- but the ballpark doesn't do Arenado's bat any favors, given how little he ever hits the ball to right field.
Mets
Pete Alonso is a free agent while the Mets are hot on the trail of Soto. This means the Mets surely wouldn't be a factor here until after at least Soto is signed and maybe even after Alonso signs. If the Mets bring back Alonso, it doesn't really seem like there's a fit with Arenado. If Alonso signs elsewhere -- yes, even if the Mets land Soto -- Arenado would work.
Mark Vientos, coming off a breakout power season with 27 homers and 71 RBI in 111 games, is probably better suited to play first base than third long term. Moving him across the diamond and putting Arenado at third works.
The component of going to a contender would be satisfied with the Mets' run to the NLCS last year in addition to how they appear set up for the future.
Diamondbacks
The D-backs made the World Series in 2023 and improved to 89 wins last season, though this time around it meant they missed the playoffs. They would probably much rather just bring Christian Walker back in free agency, but if he signs elsewhere, the D-backs would have a void to fill. They could either put Arenado at third and move Eugenio Suárez to first base or just plant Arenado at first.
We know Arenado is plenty familiar with the NL West and Chase Field is a hitter-friendly environment, even if it isn't Coors Field.
Mariners
The Mariners are in a situation where they've grown accustomed to contending. They've won 90, 90, 88 and 85 games, respectively, each of the last four seasons. They have pitching to spare and desperately need offense. We know Jerry Dipoto isn't bashful about trade talk.
It looks like Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore might be slotted at third, but he won the award as a utility player, not a third baseman. Luke Raley could be the first baseman, but, again, he's more of a utility guy. The Mariners have enough flexibility to make Arenado fit and they certainly have the money.
Would Arenado go there, though? T-Mobile Park was the single worst park in the majors for hitters from 2022-24. He's already dealing with declining offense and has a no-trade clause. It seems like this is something he might want to avoid.
Blue Jays
The Jays are in a tough spot in that they are trying to convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. they are doing enough to contend so that he'll sign a long-term contract extension. They're also trying hard to convince Juan Soto they are set up well enough that he'll sign there. If you're going all-in, it can't hurt to make a play for Arenado.
Ernie Clement is currently slotted in at third, but he's a utility man. Arenado could stay at third here beside Bo Bichette -- who is surely in line for a bounce-back season here in his final year before free agency -- with Guerrero at first.
Could the Jays pull of a Soto signing and Arenado trade? That would be pretty interesting.
Red Sox
There have already been whispers about the Red Sox moving Rafael Devers off third and across the diamond to first. The opening at third would be an easy fit for Arenado and, coincidentally enough, it would be next to his former Rockies teammate Trevor Story. Remember how I mentioned above that Arenado is one of the most pull-heavy players in baseball? Hello, Green Monster. Arenado would have plenty of fly balls to left field turned into home runs or doubles. The ballpark is a great fit.
Such a maneuver -- Devers to first, Arenado to third -- would likely trigger the Red Sox to deal Triston Casas, unless they wanted to use the DH spot heavily with this trio and move an outfielder. It's a trickier fit, but it could happen and a Casas deal could be used to shore up the pitching staff.
Tigers
The Tigers are coming off a run to the ALDS and are looking to capitalize on the momentum, at least in theory. They don't have much money on the books moving forward, so this should be a fit. Adding Arenado would either block Jace Jung at third or move Spencer Torkelson from first to permanent DH at a young age, so it might not sound ideal, but there's a fit in there. Jung wasn't good in 34 games as a rookie last year, so it's not like he's a sure thing who must play every day in 2025.
Royals
The 2024 Royals had one of the most remarkable turnarounds in MLB history, going from 106 losses to the ALDS in a single season. They are set up to contend again behind MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. and a pair of aces in Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo. They already traded from strength by sending pitching for offense, acquiring Jonathan India. Vinnie Pasquantino is at first, so this would be another team who would, correctly, leave Arenado at third base. Maikel Garcia is the incumbent third baseman, but he hit .231 with a 72 OPS+ and 1.2 WAR last season. Arenado is an upgrade. It would be a pretty fun move.
Dodgers
No way, right?
Well, we know the money won't be an obstacle and Arenado would surely jump at the chance to play for them. They'd have to lose out on Soto and concede that Betts was going to be their right fielder, but then the Dodgers could use Max Muncy at second, Gavin Lux at shortstop and Tommy Edman in center field. That leaves third base open for Arenado.
It actually works. Don't count it out.
