The 2024-25 NBA season tipped off Tuesday night with the Celtics throttling the Knicks and the Lakers starting the JJ Redick era with a win over the Timberwolves. There are 10 games on tap for Wednesday and every team will play its first game by Thursday night.
Before the season really gets going, it's time to stick the old neck out with some bold predictions for the season. Nine of them, to be exact. Why nine? I don't know. Mostly because these are the predictions that can reasonably qualify as bold that I feel relatively comfortable making, but also because I think it's dumb we always see the need to put a round number on everything.
Call it my annoyance with triple-double obsession and .300 batting averages. With that out of the way, let's get to some predictions.
1. Celtics go back-to-back
The Celtics are not going to win 73 games, but I'm getting some 2015-16 Golden State Warriors vibes with this team that I think is going to be on a nightly mission to use last year's championship as a catapult into even greater heights of dominance.
Count 'em up pic.twitter.com/R3x6a4M3xp
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) October 23, 2024
Jaylen Brown wasn't invited to the Olympics. Jayson Tatum basically didn't play in the Olympics. The two best players having an edge like that is going to trickle down, and this team is just so damn good. When Kristaps Porzingis comes back, forget about it. Even in this era of parity, Boston is a notable notch above everyone else and will win a second straight title.
2. Lakers land in lottery
They looked great on opening night. Anthony Davis was a monster. But I just don't think LeBron James and Davis can stay as healthy as they did last season, when they played 71 and 76 games, respectively. James is going to be 40 years old in December. Davis has been a walking injury until last season. I'm just playing the odds here. With how good the West is even down near the No. 10 seed, the Lakers could easily end up a low-40 or even high-30-win team if the two big guns miss even a decent amount of time. And five of our nine experts picked the Lakers to finish at No. 11 in the West.
3. Luka Doncic wins MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be on his heels the whole way, but this is Luka's season. I think OKC wins the West, but Dallas coming in as the No. 2 seed will be enough for Doncic, whom I also think wins the scoring title for a second consecutive year and has a real shot to win the assist title too, to claim his first MVP in his seventh NBA season, the same career point at which Joel Embiid won his first MVP.
4. Wemby joins rare block company
Only one player in NBA history has averaged five blocked shots per game: Mark Eaton, who did it in the 1984-85 season for the Utah Jazz. Victor Wembanyama, my pick for Defensive Player of the Year, will become the second this season.
Wemby averaged 4.3 blocks per 36 minutes last season and 4.6 blocks per game after the All-Star break. The only reason(s) he probably won't break Eaton's record is teams shoot so many 3-pointers these days and the Spurs might still be somewhat watching his minutes.
5. Kevin Durant shoots 50-40-90
Only 10 players in history have finished a season by shooting at least 50% overall, 40% from 3 and 90% from the free throw line while playing in at least 60 games. Durant, who did it in 2012-13 with the Thunder, will do it again this season.
KD showing the bounce ☄️ pic.twitter.com/nCj0k8hfXk
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) October 18, 2024
He nearly did so last season with 52/41/85 shooting splits. All he was missing was the free-throw mark, and it should be noted he was 91% in each of the previous two seasons. Durant is still perhaps the best overall shooter in world not named Stephen Curry, and I think Mike Budenholzer is going to get him the ball in his most comfortable spots more often than Frank Vogel did.
With a big season for Durant in mind ...
6. Suns pull top-four surprise
I think we're sleeping on the Suns. Tyus Jones ties some stuff together, and Mike Budenholzer is going to unlock the offense that somehow, against all odds, was the worst fourth-quarter team in the entire league last season; with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, that should be impossible, but they pulled it off. There's just no way that happens again. In fact, I say the Suns jump all the way into a top-four seed.
Booker and Durant are coming off huge Olympic performances, and that has always boded well for players coming back the following season. I think Phoenix shoots more 3s under Bud and Bradley Beal, who is sort of like a bonus on this team, makes the offense great enough to not have to be a defensive monster, which I think Frank Vogel was more suited to encourage. Good coach fit, two superstar players, this is a good team that too many people are willing to write off because it didn't go all that well last season.
7. A big name will be traded
It could be Brandon Ingram, who has largely grown out of place in New Orleans but doesn't seem to have much of a market, either, with a major contract extension looming, or Jimmy Butler, whose Heat have been put on the clock by Pat Riley, or Trae Young, whose Hawks have seemingly hit a pretty low ceiling with him as the best player.
What if the Bucks stumble? Could Khris Middleton hit the trade block? What about Damian Lillard? I would not rule out someone taking a long shot on Kawhi Leonard summoning one more best-player-in-the-league playoff run if and when the Clippers finally admit they are finished and go in search of some draft capital back.
Down a level from there, it could be Jarrett Allen, who is very good and very expendable if Evan Mobley steps up to the plate (a deal with New Orleans, a team without a center, is practically begging to be made), or Julius Randle, who might end up being a really bad fit as a non-spacer in Minnesota and is on an expiring contract.
Collin Sexton can help a lot of teams and the Jazz wants to lose enough to keep their 2025 first-round pick that is top-10 protected. Is anyone desperate enough to take on Zach LaVine? Probably not.
But Jerami Grant? Darius Garland? The former is completely unnecessary on Portland's timeline while the latter is redundant with Donovan Mitchell in Cleveland. Whether it's one of these guys or someone nobody sees coming, I feel pretty safe in saying at least relatively big name will be moved by the February deadline because there are so many teams that believe they are one piece away from real contention in a league that is very balanced beneath Boston.
8. Scoot Henderson wins Most Improved Player
Henderson missed 16 of his 19 3-point attempts in the preseason, but he shot 41% from deep over his final seven games last season. Both are small samples, of course. But it's indicative of the wild card that Scoot's shooting is in terms of his potential to make a major leap in his sophomore season.
Henderson doesn't need to be a good 3-point shooter. He probably needs to be serviceable, but make the improvement on his efficiency inside the arc. I believe he'll do that while cutting down on turnovers. He can put up pretty big numbers on a bad Portland team, and given how low of a basis he established last season there's room for major improvement even without having a huge season.
I think he end up with the award in part because so many people will be paying extra attention to him after how poorly things went in Year 1.
9. Jamal Murray answers the bell
I don't have a tangible standard for what constitutes "answering the bell" for Murray, but he's under a pretty hot spotlight to play All-Star-level well (though he almost certainly won't make the actual team) this season after a poor playoff showing and even worse Olympic performance and I believe he'll do that.
I believe endlessly in Jamal Murray. He's an A1 shotmaker when he has it going, which he doesn't always have to do with the nighty mastery of Nikola Jokic to lean on, but this season the Nuggets need a legit 1-2 punch to keep pace with the Western Conference horses.