You might say that the Oklahoma City Thunder arrived ahead of schedule last season, but, to general manager Sam Presti, they still have to earn their arrival and there has never been a schedule. Let's just say, then, that the 17-game jump the Thunder made in the standings was even more remarkable than the 16-game jump they made the previous season. Now, the team that finished first in the Western Conference (and lost a tightly contested second-round series) is armed with reinforcements. Josh Giddey wasn't going to be happy in a sixth-man role, so he's out. In are Alex Caruso, who will play any role he's asked at 1000% intensity, and Isaiah Hartenstein, who addresses Oklahoma City's biggest weakness -- and I don't mean rebounding.
To be clear, Hartenstein will help OKC on the glass, and some extra chances definitely would have come in handy against the Dallas Mavericks. If there was one reason the Thunder lost that series, though, it was that they were exposed offensively. They lost their flow, slowed their tempo and allowed Dallas to dictate terms. Hartenstein, who is immediately their best screener and perhaps their best passer, is the kind of player who can prevent this from happening again. OKC will still play 5-out with Hartenstein on some possessions, but, generally speaking, the offense won't look the same when he's out there. It will be less drive-and-kick-heavy, less reliant on creating advantages off the dribble and, crucially, less predictable.
Caruso fits this style of play, too. Think of him as the Thunder's version of Derrick White, albeit with a less reliable jumper. Given that both he and Hartenstein are elite defenders -- Caruso is already "annoying as hell" to deal with in practice, per franchise player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -- it is easy to pencil in OKC as the favorite out West. Development isn't linear, but if you assume there will be some natural progression from Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, it's not even particularly difficult to imagine them winning the whole damn thing. Today, to predict that they'll be the 2025 champions isn't half as bold as it was to predict a 17-game jump this time last year.
The state of play
Last year: Gilgeous-Alexander was the MVP runner-up, Holmgren was the ROY runner-up and Daigneault won COY in a landslide. In the regular season, the eventual-champion Celtics were the only team to top OKC's 57-25 record or its plus-7.3 point differential. The Thunder's fourth-ranked defense held up well in the playoffs, but their third-ranked offense got a bit stagnant in the second round against Dallas. They almost overcame this, only to drop Game 6 by one point on the road after SGA fouled P.J. Washington in the corner in the final seconds.
The offseason: In June, OKC swapped Giddey for Caruso, then drafted a potential Giddey replacement (Nikola Topic) with the No. 12 pick. It also sent New York five second-round picks for the No. 27 pick (Dillon Jones) and, with some more maneuvering, nabbed the No. 38 pick (Ajay Mitchell). It's going to be incredibly difficult for any draftee to crack this rotation for a while, though, in part because, in July, the Thunder signed Hartenstein to a deal they knew the Knicks couldn't match, then re-signed Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins on team-friendly deals.
Best case for 2024-25: Holmgren and Williams join SGA in the All-Star Game and several prominent podcasters make the case that Hartenstein -- who averages six assists and anchors the best defense in NBA history -- deserves a spot, too; with the rebounding problem solved, the Thunder's lack of glaring issues becomes suspicious in itself, leading to a national conversation about how they will handle adversity in the playoffs, a question they emphatically answer by storming through the Western Conference gauntlet with relative ease and winning the title in what is immediately lauded as the most captivating Finals since 2016.
Worst case 2024-25: The Thunder remain elite defensively, but the new offense never quite clicks; when Presti elects to stand pat at the trade deadline, he is accused of both making rash moves to chase a championship too early (by acquiring Hartenstein and Caruso the previous summer) and not acting with enough urgency (by failing to plug the appropriate holes midseason), criticisms that he addresses during a seven-hour press conference following a first-round loss in the 4 vs. 5 series.
The conversation
Thunder believer: How do other teams' executives feel when they look at this roster, salary-cap situation and stockpile of draft picks? I genuinely can't recall any team in the history of the NBA ever being this good and this well-positioned for the future at the same time. Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are among the most Thunder-y players imaginable, and Sam Presti didn't even have to give up any picks to get them. The vibe is reminiscent of when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden were in OKC and the possibilities seemed limitless, but this team is way better! Look at the depth of talent. Look at the versatility. I'm in awe.
Thunder skeptic: Personally, I'd wait until this version of the Thunder win a playoff series against one good team -- the Zion-less Pelicans don't count, obviously -- before declaring them better than the Durant-Westbrook-Harden group that went to the Finals. Don't you feel like you (and all the other Presti stans out there) might be a tad over-exuberant? There's a lot to be excited about, don't get me wrong, but Presti himself is always preaching patience. This team's best players are 26, 23 and 22. Why must we be in a rush to anoint them?
Thunder believer: Let me guess, you were one of the people who thought all us "Presti stans" were too high on OKC last year, right? It turned out we were all too low, and that should be instructive for you: "I want to see them prove it first" is not just a lazy take, it's a foolish one. There is no virtue in being super late to the party because you're scared of being slightly early. Yes, this team's core is young, but this team's core is also incredibly good, right now, on both ends. The Thunder don't play a helter-skelter brand of basketball, and it does not require some wild leap of faith to believe they can win the title. The 2023-24 season made that blindingly obvious, which is why Presti made the exact type of moves that a contender should.
Thunder skeptic: I'm not saying it's bad to believe in the Thunder! I'm not even necessarily saying that Presti has done anything wrong. Go ahead and make your optimistic predictions. Just don't assume that this is going to be a smooth upward trajectory. Please remember the Durant-Westbrook-Harden team that you brought up! Please remember that it felt like it should be a dynasty, like at least one title was inevitable. Of course expectations should be high for this new generation, but the hype is getting out of control. There could be some regression coming for one or more of the key guys. There could be difficulty integrating one or both of the new guys. Everybody's building up the Thunder right now, and everybody's going to delight in tearing them down if/when they stumble.
Thunder believer: Thanks for trying to protect the Thunder from the expectations that they've earned, but it's a bit patronizing. I assure you they don't want people to tamp down their enthusiasm or whatever it is you want me to do here. What I love about them, in fact, is that they don't seem to care what people outside of the organization think. From Presti to Mark Daigneault to, like, Cason Wallace, who had one of the most mature, businesslike rookie seasons I've ever seen, they're all about individual player development, forging an identity as a team and piling up wins as a byproduct of the work they do every day.
Thunder skeptic: Ugh, I didn't realize you'd been fully indoctrinated by Thunder U. All I'm trying to say is that A) winning is hard, especially for young teams, and B) I have some questions about this particular young team. One pretty big question: Uh, who's starting? A related question: Can Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren play together?
Thunder believer: I'm actually a professor at Thunder U, thank you very much. And as such, I'd love to answer your hard-hitting questions. When it comes to the starting lineup, they're keeping their options open for now. Maybe they start one big, maybe they start two bigs. Personally, I'd love for this to be a fluid, matchup-based situation. The virtue of this roster -- and the thing that separates it from last year's -- is that it is built to solve an array of different problems. Daigneault has always experimented with lineups, but the infusion of talent this summer allows him to experiment with styles. This is going to be a season of discovery, and that starts with getting everybody comfortable with Chet-at-the-4 lineups, regardless of whether or not the Thunder start games that way. As for your second question, yes, they can obviously play together. Holmgren is hardly a traditional 5, and Hartenstein is not some sort of post-up dinosaur, either. Get ready for some sick high-low passes.
Thunder skeptic: Aside from that "season of discovery" mumbo jumbo, it seems we're finally talking about basketball -- hooray! I don't understand why you think it's "obvious" that the two bigs will work well together, though. OKC had an elite offense last year, largely because of their 5-out spacing. Holmgren won't have the same matchup advantages at the 4 that he did at the 5. After the Dallas series, I thought, Holmgren needs to be a better stretch 5 (i.e. speed up his release, shoot from even deeper), and I didn't for one second think, Chet needs to be a 4. Before he'd even played an NBA game, the Thunder established themselves as the league's preeminent drive-and-kick team. It's fair to say that the driving lanes aren't going to be the same with Hartenstein in the paint, isn't it? Am I allowed to think that Mikal Bridges would have been a better target, or am I just supposed to bow to the most brilliant, forward-thinking front office of all-time?
Thunder believer: Holmgren still needs to make those improvements, and I bet he will. He will also, however, keep growing in all sorts of other ways, including as an off-the-dribble creator. Positions are antiquated nowadays, so I kind of regret even referring to "Chet-at-the-4 lineups" earlier. With Hartenstein playing "point center" or whatever you want to call it when a very tall person operates as a hub, it will become more apparent that Holmgren is just an all-around skilled basketball player. You'll see him cut like he's never cut before! This is the effect that Hartenstein -- and, to some extent, Caruso, an extremely underrated offensive player -- will have on the whole team. It's not going to be drive-and-kick barrage anymore, since we saw the limits of that approach against the Mavericks. It'll be a barrage of various actions all over the court, and the defense won't know what's coming. Bridges is a better player than Hartenstein in a vacuum, and I wouldn't have been opposed to trading a bunch of picks for him, but he wouldn't have expanded the menu on offense this way.
Thunder skeptic: Maybe the size of the menu wasn't the problem, though. Maybe all Presti needed to do was improve a couple of ingredients. The Mavericks series was a coin flip, but it seems like his takeaway was that the team needed more size, more movement and much more passing. I admit that he could very well be proven right, and all of this could come together beautifully, but I'd feel better about the two bigs if the spacing around them were pristine. Caruso is a better shooter than Josh Giddey, but that's not saying much. You saw how Dallas treated Dort. SGA has never been an awesome catch-and-shoot guy. Isaiah Joe is the only movement shooter on the roster. I have no doubt that this team will win a ton of regular-season games again, but I'm just as sure that, in the playoffs, opponents will pack the paint again.
