After four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Washington Commanders find themselves in an unfamiliar position. That would be first place in the NFC East with a 3-1 record, while the two teams that have dominated the division over the last eight years - the Dallas Cowboys (four titles) and Philadelphia Eagles (three) - both are 2-2 and surprisingly underachieving.
Yes, Washington won its ninth NFC East title in 2020, but it did so with a 7-9 record as Dallas, Philadelphia and the New York Giants - who are 1-3 thus far in 2024 - all were even more disappointing. Including that season, the Commanders franchise has gone seven consecutive years without a winning record, with its best mark being 8-8-1 in 2022.
Things did not start smoothly for Washington this campaign, as it suffered a 37-20 road loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in its opener. But the club edged the Giants 21-18 in Week 2 without even scoring a touchdown and followed with road victories versus the Cincinnati Bengals (38-33) and Arizona Cardinals (42-14) to give the fan base a reason for optimism.
Much of the enthusiasm comes as a result of the play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. After a stellar 2023 season at LSU that earned him the Heisman Trophy, the 23-year-old was selected by the Commanders with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft and has not disappointed.
Daniels ran for a pair of touchdowns while completing 70.8% of his pass attempts in his NFL debut, then was 23-for-29 (79.3%) against the Giants in Week 2. He threw for two TDs and ran for another in the triumph over Cincinnati, completing all but two of his 23 passes, and was 26-for-30 with one score through the air and another on the ground versus Arizona.
Through his first four outings, Daniels leads the league with an 82.1% completion percentage - the highest over a four-game span since 1970. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 85% of his attempts in back-to-back contests and, with 218 yards on the ground, joined Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (November 2019) as the only signal-callers with at least 200 rushing yards and a 75% completion percentage (minimum of 50 attempts) in one month.
With the help of Daniels, the Commanders rank third in the NFL in rushing with an average of 169.3 yards per game and lead the league with 10 touchdown runs. Daniels has recorded four of them, tying him for second-most by a QB over his first four NFL contests in history, while Brian Robinson Jr. has posted three - two shy of his career high - and Jeremy McNichols has notched two after registering one in his first 40 NFL games.
Washington is third in the league in scoring, averaging 30.3 points. Excluding kneel-downs, it has cashed in on 77% of its offensive drives - the highest rate by a team through four games since at least 2000. The Commanders have recorded 13 touchdowns this year, while kicker Austin Seibert has converted all 10 of his field-goal attempts since being signed prior to Week 2.
It obviously will take a much longer period of time to determine whether or not Daniels is Washington's quarterback of the future. After all, many felt Robert Griffin III filled that bill following his performance in 2012 that earned him NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. But injuries limited Griffin to 22 games over the next three seasons and Washington released him in March 2017.
Regardless of the small sample size, nearly every observer has been impressed by Daniels thus far. One of them certainly is the SportsLine Projection Model, which correctly picked the California native to win the Heisman Trophy last year at +2000 odds.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, also says Daniels will complete more than 70% of his pass attempts over the remainder of the season while throwing 21 additional touchdown passes and rushing for seven more scores.
However, it took a while for Daniels to convince the model of his ability. Prior to the season, it gave the Commanders just a 6.2% chance to make just their second playoff appearance in nine years. And after the Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay, the model had Washington qualifying for the postseason a mere 2.9% of the time.
That number increased to 6.1% following the team's home-opening victory against New York and soared to 24.8% after the Commanders topped the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Last Sunday's dominant effort at Arizona in which Washington racked up 449 yards of offense persuaded the model to increase its playoff chances to 64.8%.
As they prepare to host the 1-3 Cleveland Browns in Week 5 on Sunday, the Commanders' prospects of winning the NFC East are at 45.4%, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. Conversely, it says Dallas' prospects of capturing the division title are at 29.1% and has Philadelphia's chances of taking the crown at 25%.
The model also projects Washington to reach the Super Bowl in 3.7% of its simulations and win the Vince Lombardi Trophy 1.3% of the time.
The all-time series has been one-sided as Cleveland owns a 35-12-1 record against the Commanders - the best record for a team against any opponent in NFL history (minimum of 45 meetings). The Browns are coming off a 20-16 setback against the Las Vegas Raiders but are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss.
The model is calling for a close game between the Commanders and Browns this weekend. The matchup is one of four with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the fifth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.
