The San Francisco 49ers have been a powerhouse in their conference of late, reaching the NFC Championship Game in each of the last three seasons and four of the past five. Considering their performance last year, when they pulled even with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos for second on the all-time list by making their eighth Super Bowl appearance, many experts had them playing for the conference title again in 2024.
Given the team's roster, it was quite conceivable to think that those predictions would come to pass. Brock Purdy finished fifth in the NFL last season with 4,280 passing yards and third with 31 touchdown tosses, while Christian McCaffrey was the 2023 rushing leader with 1,459 yards and tied Raheem Mostert of the Miami Dolphins for the league lead with 21 total TDs.
The 49ers' offense also features dual threat Deebo Samuel, wideout Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle. The latter two both eclipsed the 1,000-yards receiving mark last season, with Aiyuk setting a career high (1,342), while Samuel amassed 1,117 scrimmage yards (892 receiving, 225 rushing).
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco ranked third in the NFL against the run (89.7 yards allowed) and points permitted (17.5). It shared the league lead for most interceptions (22) with the Chicago Bears and was tied for seventh in sacks (48) thanks to a pass rush led by defensive end Nick Bosa (10.5) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (seven).
The SportsLine Projection Model certainly had high hopes for the 49ers prior to the 2024 NFL season. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, had the team recording 11.7 victories while giving it a 78.9% chance to win its third consecutive NFC West title and 93.3% likelihood just to make the playoffs.
In addition, the model projected San Francisco's prospects of reaching the Super Bowl at 31% and winning it at 17.8%. Unfortunately for the 49ers, however, games are not played on paper. And injuries all too often are a factor during the NFL season, which the club is finding out the hard way.
McCaffrey has yet to step onto the field this season as he's dealing with calf and Achilles injuries. The 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, who was hampered by ailments during his final two seasons with the Carolina Panthers before being traded to San Francisco in the middle of the 2022 campaign, was inactive for the season-opening triumph over the New York Jets but placed on injured reserve prior to the Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings and has met with a specialist overseas regarding his Achilles tendinitis.
Samuel (calf) and Kittle (hamstring) both missed the 49ers' setback at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, and the former is expected to sit out several more contests. Purdy got banged up in that contest, complaining of back soreness, but an MRI came back clean. However, Hargrave was not as fortunate as he suffered a partially torn right triceps and is likely done for the season.
According to the model, the 49ers projected to post 10.9 wins, win their division 64.1% of the time and have an 82.3% chance to qualify for the playoffs following their 23-17 defeat in Minnesota. The model said they had a 20.4% chance to appear in the Super Bowl and 11.3% chance to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
After squandering a 14-point second-half lead and dropping a 27-24 decision to the Rams, their projections fell even lower. The model now has San Francisco winning 9.7 games and finishing atop the NFC West just 36.6% of the time. It has the team's chances of making the playoffs at 61.7%, reaching the Super Bowl at 12.9% and winning the championship at just 6.6%.
The 49ers' current struggles have them even with the Rams and Arizona Cardinals with a 1-2 record, while the Seattle Seahawks are perched atop the division as one of the five remaining 3-0 teams in the league. But despite the absences of McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle, their offense still is potent as Purdy is second in the NFL with 841 passing yards, Jordan Mason ranks second in rushing with 324 yards and Jauan Jennings is third in receiving with 276 yards following his 175-yard, three-touchdown effort against the Rams.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is hopeful that Kittle returns to practice this week and suits up against the visiting New England Patriots on Sunday. With San Francisco opening as 11.5-point favorites and listed at -10 in the latest odds via SportsLine consensus, he also is hopeful that San Francisco avoids losing three straight games - all as a favorite by four or more points - for only the second time since 1970.
The 49ers endured such a skid from Weeks 6-8 last season. And this year, huge favorites have not fared well in the NFL, as the teams that have been favored by at least seven points have gone 0-4 outright. The Cincinnati Bengals hold the dubious distinction of suffering two of the losses, falling 16-10 to the Patriots as 8.5-point favorites in Week 1 and 38-33 to the Washington Commanders as 7.5-point favorites this past Monday night, while Week 2 saw the Las Vegas Raiders defeat the Baltimore Ravens 26-23 as 8.5-point underdogs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Detroit Lions 20-16 as 7.5-point dogs.
With a victory against New England, San Francisco's outlook improves a bit, according to the model. It projects the club records 9.9 victories and wins its division 43.3% of the time. It also says the 49ers' chances to make the playoffs go up to 66.7%, to reach the Super Bowl increase to 14.4% and to win the Lombardi Trophy rise to 7.4%.
However, the SportsLine Projection Model believes losing to the Patriots would be extremely damaging. It has the 49ers with only 8.8 wins for the season and their chances for the NFC West crown at 27.4%. The club would make the playoffs only 49.1% of the time, and its prospects of reaching the Super Bowl and winning it would be at 9.1% and 4.5%, respectively.
The model is expecting the Patriots to put up a good fight in terms of covering the spread against the 49ers. However, the contest isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the fourth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.
