AFC North win totals: Take the Over on Joe Burrow and the remade Bengals defense

The AFC North is going to be very different in 2026. Mike Tomlin is no longer with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens fired John Harbaugh and the Cleveland Browns parted ways with two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski. Who would have thought Zac Taylor would be the longest-tenured coach in the division entering 2026?

What's fascinating about the AFC North is that every fan base is upset with how this past season went. The Steelers won the division thanks to a missed field goal from Tyler Loop, but they never appeared to be a serious contender that had a chance to hoist the Lombardi. The Cincinnati Bengals and Ravens both have elite quarterbacks that should have them in the mix every single year. Instead, both missed the playoffs with losing records. Then, there's the Browns. Myles Garrett recorded an NFL-record 23 sacks while Carson Schwesinger won Defensive Rookie of the Year for a unit that ranked top four in yards allowed per game. However, inconsistencies from the quarterback position left the Browns reeling with their second-straight double-digit loss season. 

What will happen in the division this season? Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule has been released, we can really start to break down the league. Let's dissect the 2026 win totals for each AFC North team, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 11.5 (Over +115, Under -140)

When it comes to the discussion of preseason win totals, the Ravens are the most fascinating team in the NFL. Despite missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, Baltimore is the first team on record (1989) coming off a losing season to have the highest preseason win total at 11.5, according to CBS Sports Research. That's tied with the Los Angeles Rams. For that reason, I am automatically going to take the Under here. Any time the Ravens have had a preseason win total of 11 or higher, they have gone Under. 

I like the hiring of Jesse Minter more than the hirings of Todd Monken and Mike McCarthy, but how many first-year coaches have ever gone 12-4 or better in their very first season? Plus, Lamar Jackson is averaging 3.0 games missed per season over the last five years, and really struggled after suffering the hamstring injury last season. He needs to stay 100% healthy if the Ravens are going to cash this Over.

Verdict: Under 11.5

Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -145, Under +120)

I'm high on the Bengals this year, and Joe Burrow is too. That's notable because it felt like he was going the way of Andrew Luck back in December. But after a big offseason, he's ready for another run at a Super Bowl.

The Bengals offense can be one of the best in the league if everyone remains healthy, and then if the defense can take a simple step forward in the second season of the Al Golden era, the Bengals should get back to the postseason. The defense added Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Cashius Howell and Boye Mafe on the line, plus Bryan Cook and Tacario Davis in the secondary. I'm not saying the Bengals are going to automatically turn into the Seattle Seahawks, but this defense should be improved. Plus, Cincinnati was given the third-easiest schedule in the NFL. I say the Bengals get back to the playoffs in a do-or-die season for Zac Taylor, and I'll take them to win the AFC North at +210.

Verdict: Over 9.5

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Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 6.5 (Over +105, Under -125)

The Ravens and Bengals are expected to play some pretty easy schedules in 2026, but the easiest strength of schedule belongs to the Cleveland Browns (.429 opponent win percentage in 2025). Check this stat out: The AFC team with the easiest schedule has finished with a winning record in eight straight seasons, so maybe this is the year the Browns finally turn it around.

I say it all hinges on the play of Deshaun Watson, who is expected to be Cleveland's starting quarterback once again. The Browns have a talented defense headlined by sack king Myles Garrett, and Andrew Berry has drafted just as well as any NFL general manager over the last couple years. It's rare when that doesn't translate to wins. If the Browns can get average quarterback play, they are a team that will improve. I'm going to go out on a limb and take the Browns to get to 7-10 at plus money. 

Verdict: Over 6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)

Steelers fans were probably ready to embrace the organizational reset that comes with parting ways with Mike Tomlin. The Steelers could bring in a young defensive/offensive mind, reset at quarterback and start building for the future. Instead, the Steelers hired the 62-year-old Mike McCarthy, and are running it back with Aaron Rodgers.

The Steelers did make several notable additions this offseason, such as Michael Pittman Jr. at wide receiver, Rico Dowdle at running back, and Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker in the secondary. Pittsburgh's draft was solid as well, and I'm super intrigued by Navy playmaker Eli Heidenreich. He should have been selected before pick No. 230. 

Pittsburgh has famously gone 22 straight years without a losing season, but that streak is in danger of ending in 2026. I truly view this line as a coin flip. I don't think the Steelers will be in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick by any means, but I'll take them to go 8-9.

Verdict: Under 8.5

Odds to win the AFC North in 2026