AFC playoff picture: Comparing seven wild-card contenders to see which have best chance at nine wins

The AFC playoff picture can be summed up like this: Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs and then a dogfight.

Through seven weeks, the two-time defending Super Bowl champs once again look like the class of the NFL. Kansas City (6-0) is the league's only undefeated team and already owns a 2.5-game lead in the AFC West. And the team figures to only get better with the addition of receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is set to be traded from the Titans to the Chiefs this week, according to multiple reports on Wednesday.

Behind Kansas City, the race for the final six playoff spots, especially the three wild card spots, in the AFC is shaping up to be a wild playoffpalooza. To summarize, the Texans, Ravens and Bills lead the other three divisions, at 5-2. The Steelers (5-2), Colts (4-3) and Broncos (4-3) currently hold the three wild card spots. The Chargers (3-3), Bengals (3-4), Dolphins, 2-4, Jets (2-5) and Jaguars (2-5) also are in the hunt.

According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the SportsLine Projection Model, "Because the AFC is top-heavy, a lot of teams at .500 and under still have pretty high playoff percentages, and just nine wins may be enough for the No. 7 seed."

The biggest beneficiary of the AFC's top heaviness is the Chargers. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects L.A., which is in third place in the AFC West, to finish with 9.2 wins and gives coach Jim Harbaugh's team a 59.2% chance to make the playoffs. That's a bigger percentage than both the Broncos (49.8%) and Colts (26.3%), who are both ahead of the Chargers in the standings entering Week 8. Los Angeles has six games remaining against teams that are currently under .500.

Meanwhile the Jets, who made the most high-profile acquisition of the trade deadline so far by adding Davante Adams and were blown out 37-15 by the Steelers last week, still have just a 17.4% chance to reach the postseason. 

The Bengals (40.3% chance to make the playoffs), Jaguars (16.1%) and Dolphins (7.0%) also are not projected to make the playoffs, according to the model.

Here's how the model projects the race for the final two wild card spots (after Pittsburgh) and those teams' chances to reach nine wins:

As for Week 8, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Chargers and Saints on Sunday. However, that game isn't one of the two with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 8. You can find those top-tier Week 8 NFL picks at SportsLine.