AFC South win totals: Don't believe the hype around Colts, Jaguars regressions

There are surprises in the NFL every single year, but the AFC South ended up being one of the most interesting divisions this past season. The Jacksonville Jaguars came out of seemingly nowhere with Liam Coen to win the division with a 13-4 record. The Houston Texans weren't too far behind at 12-5 thanks to one of the best defenses in the league.

The Indianapolis Colts looked like the best team in the NFL after an 8-2 start, but then the wheels fell off as Daniel Jones attempted to play through a fractured fibula.  As for the Tennessee Titans, they are still considered the bottom team in the division, but there's reason for optimism. The Titans have a new head coach in Robert Saleh, who is regarded as one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and a prospective franchise quarterback in Cam Ward. The front office revamped the defense, and Ward has a few new weapons with Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, so are the Titans poised to take a step forward? 

Now that the full 2026 NFL schedule is released, let's dissect the win totals for each team in the AFC South, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Houston Texans: Over/Under 9.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

What do we make of the Texans? I like DeMeco Ryans' defense better than the Seahawks unit that just won the Super Bowl. But C.J. Stroud's play has held this team back. After his historic 2023 campaign in which he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud has failed to improve. His 7.1 yards per attempt over the last two seasons ranks worse than Geno Smith, and his 89.6 passer rating is below that of Kyler Murray. Stroud has solid weaponry in Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz and new running back David Montgomery, but the remade offensive line remains a question mark. I'm unsure of who I love the most in the AFC South, but I'll take the Texans to get to 10-7 with one of the seven easiest schedules. Houston has won double-digit games in each season where Stroud has been the QB. Imagine if he starts playing good football again.

Verdict: Over 9.5

Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

Somewhat of a confusing line here. The Colts hit the Over on this number last year despite losing their last SEVEN games! Indy re-signed Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce to lucrative long-term extensions, added some talent on defense in the draft with linebacker CJ Allen and A.J. Haulcy, and got a top-five easiest schedule this season. 

I won't place money on the Colts to win the Super Bowl, or even the division, for that matter. I wonder if this defense can be good enough for a team that wants to be a contender, but I still think the Colts can get to 8-9.

Verdict: Over 7.5

Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)

After the Jaguars' impressive 2025 season, you can say Jacksonville got worse this offseason. The Jags lost linebacker Devin Lloyd, running back Travis Etienne and cornerback Greg Newsome II in free agency, then general manager James Gladstone put together a confusing draft class. You never want to harshly judge a group of players before they even take the field, but the Jaguars drafted a 25-year-old backup tight end with their first selection. With that said, I'm a believer in this coaching staff with Liam Coen, Grant Udinski and Anthony Campanile. The Jaguars accomplished all they did in 2025 without No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter, plus Brian Thomas Jr. was a disappointment in his second season. What if both of those players become difference-makers in 2026? Or maybe Gladstone trades BTJ and some picks to the Philadelphia Eagles for wide receiver A.J. Brown, you never know. I have a hard time believing the Jaguars will regress by five wins in 2026.

Verdict: Over 8.5

Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 6.5 (-110)

The Tennessee Titans have not registered a winning season since the infamous playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021 and are coming off back-to-back 3-14 seasons. There are reasons to be excited. Saleh brings defensive experience to Nashville, and the Titans worked hard to completely revamp that side of the ball with new starters such as John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson II, Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott. The Titans also have one of the most beneficial schedules in the NFL. Not just because of their opponents, but because of how it's constructed. The Titans get a full week of rest before each game, a bye directly in the middle of the season, and aren't exactly racking up time zones crossed on the road either. Their 12,706 expected miles traveled rank sixth-fewest in the NFL, per Bookies.com. 

This Over/Under of 6.5 is a true coin toss, but if I'm taking the Over on the rest of the AFC South, I have to lean Under for Tennessee. Still, going 6-11 is a step in the right direction for the Titans.

Verdict: Under 6.5

Odds to win the AFC South in 2026