Ranking potential AFC wild card teams: Where do the Chiefs, Bills and others stack up?

With just five weeks left in the regular season, the field seems as wide-open as it has ever been. At least in recent years, I cannot remember a season that felt like this one does, where nobody knows who the favorite is or should be this late into the year.

That's especially the case in the AFC, where there are two teams whose records stand out above the rest but who do not necessarily fit the traditional look of heavy favorites. Behind those teams (the Patriots and Broncos) is a group of eight squads that are fighting for five playoff spots -- two division titles and three wild cards. 

Each of the Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Chargers and Chiefs has a record between 6-6 and 8-4, and they all have a chance to make it to the postseason, either by winning their division (the AFC North and South teams) or by landing one of the wild-card spots. 

So in the space below, we're going to rank these eight teams by how much trust we have in them at the moment. That doesn't necessarily mean we're ranking their actual likelihood to make the playoffs, to be clear -- just how much we trust them to get a win in any given week, which will obviously help them along the way.

1. Houston Texans

The Texans are here mostly because they have the single-best unit out of every team in contention for an AFC wild card spot. Their defense is not just the best among this group of teams, but arguably the best in the NFL. With Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter pressuring quarterbacks and a smothering secondary, they can shut down just about any team in the league. Their offense is also improving in recent weeks. If they can be elite on defense and above-average on offense, that might be enough to contend in the AFC, given how wide-open the conference seems to be at the moment. 

2. Buffalo Bills 

The Bills have shown this year that they can reach a high ceiling, but also that they have a decently high floor. They have several different ways they can win games because of their power rushing attack (led by an offensive line that has looked very, very good except when playing against the Texans defense) and the presence of Josh Allen, who obviously can win a whole lot of games by himself. The defense is good but not great, mostly because pretty much anyone can run the ball on the Bills pretty much at will. So, there are flaws here. But they can be overcome by the extreme strengths in the right circumstances.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 

Yes, we are still going with the Chiefs here. And, cards on the table, we originally had them at No. 2 before remembering that the Bills are really good at running the ball and the Chiefs are, well, not. The Chiefs have better underlying numbers pretty much across the board than they did last season. They just cannot seem to win the close games this year that they have consistently won otherwise during the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era. Even when it looks like the offense is operating in a small box, they still find a way to be efficient and put points on the board, and the defense is basically a league-average unit. This is a good team that's gotten some bad luck.

4. Los Angeles Chargers 

It might seem strange to have the Chargers next given all of their injuries to the offensive line, and now to quarterback Justin Herbert. But even after left-hand surgery Herbert should be back in short order, and this ranking is more about a level of confidence in their defense than it is about their offense. Jesse Minter's group is one of the more smothering units in the NFL, particularly against the pass, and that's a good basis around which to build a potential contender. You can run the ball a bit on the Chargers, but if you can't throw it at all, that's not much comfort. If Omarion Hampton comes back healthy, the offense should get a boost, too. 

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5. Baltimore Ravens 

It's really hard to put much faith in the Ravens right now given the way they have looked even while going 5-1 in their last six games. The defense has gotten better as it's gotten healthier, but the offense has been a slog even with Lamar Jackson back in the lineup -- mostly because Jackson does not look healthy, and that has knock-on effects for the entire rest of the operation. But at any time, we could get LAMAR JACKSON back and the entire thing could be flipped on its head. The Ravens have among the easier tracks to actually get to the playoffs among this group of teams because all they have to do is beat out the Steelers, and then they get to play at least one home game. But you're still just betting on the hope that the QB gets healthy.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars 

Yeah, I do not trust the Jaguars at all. Sue me. They've won four of their last five, including one against the Chargers in blowout fashion; but their other three wins came against the Raiders, the Cardinals in overtime and the Titans. I'm not exactly impressed just yet. Trevor Lawrence is probably playing better than he was earlier in the year but will also still throw the occasional mind-boggling pick. The run game has been very inconsistent despite Travis Etienne's fantasy scores. And the defense can stop the run but doesn't rush the passer as well as it should given the dual presences of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. There's just something about this team that leaves me cold.

7. Indianapolis Colts 

All that said, I am more confident in the Jags right now than I am in the Colts, whose quarterback is playing on a fractured leg and looks like he can't really move, and who just lost Sauce Gardner for several weeks due to injury. They've now lost three of four and have scored 20 points or fewer in all three of those losses after scoring 29 or more in seven of their first eight games. The Colts were already treading a very narrow path given that they were relying on Daniel Jones not turning into a pumpkin, and that path has gotten even narrower due to these injuries. Jonathan Taylor can carry a team in any given week, but it's a lot to ask to do it over the final five weeks of the season and into the playoffs. 

8. Pittsburgh Steelers

They're technically still alive but I do not see the path at all.