Last week, I made the argument that Matt Eberflus should be the next head coach fired. On Sunday, his Chicago Bears came out and lost, 19-3, to the lowly New England Patriots. That was the easiest remaining opponent on the Bears' schedule, and firing Shane Waldron won't fix everything. So, our friends in the Windy City need to buckle up for what could be a very rough end to the season.
There were other surprising results that came from the NFL in Week 10. The Kansas City Chiefs needed a blocked field goal at the buzzer to remain undefeated, the Dennis Allen-less New Orleans Saints upset Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons and Russell Wilson led the Pittsburgh Steelers to yet another victory.
Speaking of the Steelers, are they legitimate contenders? Defeating Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders is an impressive feat. Let's examine their case as Super Bowl hopefuls, and then we'll talk about the race for the top quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Are the Steelers Super Bowl contenders?
The Steelers won their fourth straight game after losing two straight, and they are averaging 30.8 points per game over those four victories. The biggest change the Steelers made, of course, is at quarterback, as Russell Wilson is finding success. He's a better passer downfield than Justin Fields and has unlocked George Pickens.
I didn't care about the wins against the New York Jets and New York Giants, but defeating the Commanders did raise my eyebrows. Here are some of my big takeaways from that game:
- The Steelers looked like they were going to lose this game. After all, they were down double digits in the third quarter. Pittsburgh had previously lost eight straight games when trailing by double digits in the second half. Sunday was different.
- The Steelers are now 4-1 on the road. Only the Detroit Lions have won more road games this season.
- Jaylen Warren was a breath of fresh air with 66 rushing yards on 14 carries.
- Wilson was inconsistent with some ugly-looking moon balls, but he came up big when it mattered most with the TD pass to Mike Williams.
- The defense again impressed, holding Daniels to 17 of 34 passing. That 50% completion percentage was the worst of his young career, and the 34 passing attempts were his most without a touchdown pass. Washington also went 5 of 14 on third downs and failed on its lone fourth-down attempt -- which sealed the game.
The Steelers are now 7-2 and Wilson is undefeated as the starter. The question has to be asked: Are the Steelers Super Bowl contenders? Let's take a look at some numbers from our simulations, but first, here is the Steelers' remaining schedule:
Steelers' remaining schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
11 | vs. Baltimore Ravens |
12 | |
13 | |
14 | vs. Cleveland Browns |
15 | |
16 | at Baltimore Ravens |
17 | vs. Kansas City Chiefs |
18 | vs. Cincinnati Bengals |
Beating Washington was one thing, but upsetting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens this week would be another. According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Steelers are expected to go around .500 in their remaining eight games. He gives them a projected finish of 4.1-3.9, which brings Pittsburgh's win total to a projected 11.1. Just three teams in the AFC are projected to finish with more wins, including the rival Ravens.
Now, could the Steelers actually be real threats to teams like the Chiefs, Lions and Buffalo Bills? Here's what our simulations say:
Steelers' postseason chances
| Situation | Percentage chance |
|---|---|
Win AFC North | 35.5% |
Make the playoffs | 97.8% |
Win the AFC | 7.3% |
Win the Super Bowl | 3.6% |
What's interesting about these numbers is that the simulations say Pittsburgh has a 64.5% chance to lose its lead in the AFC North. Making the playoffs is a virtual lock, but the Steelers have just a 3.6% chance to win the Super Bowl. There are six teams with a better chance to win it all, including the Commanders, who the Steelers just beat, and Eagles.
The Steelers have an incredible defense and Wilson has brought some consistency to the offensive side of things. They are a good team, but I don't think we can call them "Super Bowl contenders." Pittsburgh has started four different seasons 7-2 or better under Mike Tomlin. They won zero playoff games in the previous three instances.
Who is sitting pretty for the top QB in the draft?
We've talked about "The race for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft" before, but I'm much more interested in the quarterback-needy teams atop the draft order, and who they could end up selecting.
If the season ended today, the Jacksonville Jaguars would own the top pick. They just signed Trevor Lawrence to a record contract, so they probably aren't drafting a quarterback. They could draft another position or trade that top pick to another interested team. Behind the Jaguars are a few quarterback-needy squads.
Let's take a look at CBS Sports NFL Draft expert Chris Trapasso's most recent mock draft, which came out Wednesday.
Trapasso's latest mock draft
| Team | Pick |
|---|---|
1. Jacksonville Jaguars | ATH Travis Hunter, Colorado |
2. New York Giants | QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado |
S Malaki Starks, Georgia | |
4. Cleveland Browns | QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama |
QB Cam Ward, Miami | |
6. New England Patriots | WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona |
7. New Orleans Saints | DL Mason Graham, Michigan |
8. New York Jets | OT Will Campbell, LSU |
EDGE Mykel Williams, Georgia | |
10. Miami Dolphins | WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State |
It's very early in the "draft process," so mock drafts will change drastically from now until March. But right now, Trapasso has three quarterbacks going in the top five. However, there are FOUR quarterback-needy teams in the top five.
It's interesting that Trapasso has the Titans passing on a quarterback with their premier pick, since they will surely be doing their due diligence on signal-callers after Will Levis' 2024 campaign. I also found it interesting that Milroe is going over Ward, who may be my favorite college quarterback this year. The Washington State transfer currently leads all conferences in passing yards (3,494) and passing touchdowns (32) to go along with just six interceptions.
Keep an eye on the Giants, the Titans, the Browns and Raiders as we inch closer to the end of the regular season. Which team can "out-lose" the others?
