When it comes to the NFL preseason, the games are generally viewed as being pretty meaningless. What happens during the preseason doesn't really translate to whether a team will have any success in the regular-season. (Just ask the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns about that. Both teams went 4-0 in the preseason before going 0-16 in the regular-season.)
Although the preseason doesn't really serve as a good predictor for the regular season, there has been one stat that has somehow translated to regular-season success and that's point differential. And if you're a fan of the Chicago Bears, this is where you're going to want to start paying attention.
Thanks to their 34-21 win over the Chiefs on Thursday night, the Bears will finish the preseason with a record of 4-0. In those four games, the Bears outscored their opponents by 68 points. As someone on Reddit pointed out, that was the highest preseason point differential by any team since 2013.
So, does a high preseason point differential mean anything? It turns out that it might.
We dug a little deeper and found an interesting trend: The Bears are the seventh team since 2009 to finish a preseason with a point differential of +60 or more, and the six previous teams ALL MADE THE PLAYOFFS, including two teams that went on to win the Super Bowl.
Let's check out the other six teams on the list:
2009 New Orleans Saints
- Preseason record: 3-1
- Point differential: +69
- Regular-season: 13-3
The Saints started the regular season 13-0 on their way to winning the NFC South. In the playoffs, things got even better as they ended up winning the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
2011 Detroit Lions
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +67
- Regular-season: 10-6
After going 11 years without a playoff berth, the Lions drought finally ended. It came during a season where they blew everyone out in the preseason.
2012 Seattle Seahawks
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +78
- Regular-season: 11-5
During Russell Wilson's rookie year, the Seahawks blew out everyone in the preseason and then proceeded to also dominate during the regular season. After finishing second in the NFC West, the Seahawks won a wild-card playoff game before losing in the divisional round to the Falcons.
2013 Seattle Seahawks
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +73
- Regular-season: 13-3
Pete Carroll clearly took his preseason football seriously, because for the second straight year, not only did the Seahawks go 4-0 in the preseason, but they once again outscored their opponents by at least 70 points. The 2013 season ended with Carroll and the Seahawks hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after beating the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.
2014 Denver Broncos
- Preseason record: 3-1
- Point differential: +62
- Regular-season: 12-4
During Peyton manning's penultimate season in Denver, the Broncos rolled through the preseason with two of their three wins coming by at least 24 points. Their preseason dominance translated to the regular season during which they won the AFC West. However, they did get upset by the Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs.
2019 Baltimore Ravens
- Preseason record: 4-0
- Point differential: +66
- Regular-season: 14-2
John Harbaugh loves to play to win in the preseason and we know that because Baltimore once won an NFL-record 24 straight preseason games. During that streak, this was the only season where the Ravens outscored their preseason opponents by at least 60 points. In the regular season, not only did the Ravens finish with the best record in the NFL, but Lamar Jackson also won MVP.
The Bears are now the seventh team to outscore their preseason opponents by 60 or more points. If history holds, that means they'll be headed to at least the playoffs.
The Bears do have a young quarterback in Caleb Williams, but several teams on this list actually fit that mold. As we mentioned, the Seahawks had a rookie QB in Russell Wilson in 2012. When the Lions ran through the preseason in 2011, they had a third-year QB in Matthew Stafford. And let's not forget about Lamar Jackson, who was just in his second season when he led the Ravens to a 14-2 record in 2019.
