Happy Thanksgiving to all. For some, this holiday is about reconnecting with loved ones and enjoying pumpkin pie. For others, it's about putting on a happy face for the in-laws while keeping one eye on the TV and the other on your Caesar Sportsbook app. Like it or not, Thanksgiving is turning into an NFL gambling holiday, much like the Super Bowl. It's a special day where you can zero in on three games and add some monetary excitement to what is already supposed to be a special day.
Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys-Las Vegas Raiders and then the Buffalo Bills-New Orleans Saints nightcap. It should be a fun day, and between spreads, Over/Unders and player props, there are plenty of opportunities to turn your Thanksgiving into a lucrative one. Let's take a look at some bets we are high on.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
This first holiday matchup has to do with the quarterbacks, as Andy Dalton will start in place of Justin Fields after the rookie suffered a ribs injury, while the Lions sound like they are ready to return Jared Goff to the starting lineup after he missed last game. While Fields is the future and a young player with an incredibly high ceiling, Dalton actually has the upper hand in several statistical categories when he's on the field. According to TruMedia, with Dalton under center, the Bears are averaging .5 more yards per play, .7 more yards per rush, the sack percentage is down from 16 to 7 and Dalton also is converting 12% more third downs.
These two teams met in Week 4, when the Bears recorded a 24-14 victory. Chicago relied on the run game, and rushed for 188 yards on 39 carries -- the most rushing yards in a single game all season for the Bears. It's fair to expect this could be the game plan here again in Week 12, but Chicago will also have to prepare for the Lions' star running back. D'Andre Swift has rushed for over 130 yards in each of the last two contests, and can hurt defenses as a receiving back as well.
The Total is so low at 41.5 that I'll either not touch it or take a flier on the Over. This is a spread I wouldn't touch either. I have a lean to the favorites in Chicago since the Bears are 4-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record, but with quarterback changes, I'm not betting the house on this one.
Prediction: Bears (-3) 24-20 over Lions
A prop from Tyler Sullivan's betting guide
David Montgomery total rushing yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Detroit is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, averaging 140.5 yards per game on the ground. Those numbers are even worse when you look at the Lions' last three games (188.3 yards rushing per game). This sets up Montgomery nicely to have a breakout performance since coming back from injured reserve.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
The Cowboys are coming off of a deflating, 19-9 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but return home for the holiday --where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Arlington. We may not have a pulse on how legitimate a contender the Cowboys are at this point in the season, but they still appear to be one of the better teams in the NFC. They should be able to defeat a reeling Raiders club on Thanksgiving.
Derek Carr's squad has been through a lot this season with the Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III sagas. While the Raiders put together a two-game win streak after Gruden's exit, Vegas has now lost two straight by double digits. You would think that this Cowboys offense can show up and drop some serious points on the Raiders, but Dallas' offense statistically hasn't been as great over the past few weeks, and Dak Prescott will be without Amari Cooper and potentially CeeDee Lamb.
My lean is to the Cowboys, but I would consider buying a full point. I think my strategy will be to buy the Cowboys down and place them in a same-game parlay with a couple of other alternate player props. I have a lean to the Under as well, as the Under is 4-0 in the Cowboys' last four games.
Prediction: Cowboys (-7.5) 30-21 over Raiders
A prop from Tyler Sullivan's betting guide
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: Over 49.5 (-120). With Cooper and possibly Lamb out for this game, their targets will need to go somewhere and Schultz is third on the team in targets on the season. He also has a strong matchup against the Raiders, who are allowing opposing tight ends to average over 66 receiving yards per game on roughly 10.6 yards per reception.
Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
The Bills were blasted by the Indianapolis Colts 41-15 on Sunday, but quarterback Josh Allen says they are fortunate to be playing on a short week so they can quickly turn their attention to another opponent. The Saints are struggling right now, as Sean Payton may need to revisit starting Trevor Siemian. To go along with quarterback issues, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are injured, as are several members of the offensive line.
While I'm not bullish on the spreads for the first two Thanksgiving games, I am on this one. Bills -6 is one of my top five picks of the week. According to TruMedia, the Saints have lined up in man coverage on 36 percent of their defensive snaps this season, which is the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks against man coverage this season, as he has a completion percentage of 63% (ninth-highest among 34 qualified quarterbacks), 7.7 yards per pass attempt (10th-most among qualified quarterbacks), and has thrown eight touchdowns against man coverage (tied for seventh-most among qualified quarterbacks).
Prediction: Bills (-6) 28-20
A prop from Tyler Sullivan's betting guide
Devin Singletary total rushing yards: Over 24.5 (-115). Singletary is averaging nearly double this prop on the season and has gone over this total in eight of his 10 games played this season. The Saints also just allowed two different backs (and Jalen Hurts) to rush for over 60 yards last week.
Special Thanksgiving prop bets
Most Turkey Day passing yards
Dak Prescott +220
Josh Allen +220
Derek Carr +260
Trevor Siemian +1200
Andy Dalton +1200
Tim Boyle +1400
I love these Thanksgiving specials, and this one is pretty intriguing. I'm not expecting any kind of wild upset here, as the winner has to lie in that top three. I might sprinkle on Allen and Carr, and root for one of them to come out on top.
Most Turkey Day rushing yards
David Montgomery +350
Alvin Kamara +350
Mark Ingram +400
Ezekiel Elliott +425
D'Andre Swift +450
Josh Jacobs +550
Tony Pollard +600
I think Elliott or Swift have a legitimate chance to win this bet.
Highest scoring team on Thursday
Dallas Cowboys +160
Buffalo Bills +300
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Chicago Bears +700
New Orleans Saints +750
Detroit Lions +1200
As stated above, I'm pretty confident in the Bills. I think they are getting good value here at +300 as well.
Best bets
1. Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards: Over 32.5 (-115). St. Brown is one of the more underrated rookies in this class because he plays for a winless team, but he's had at least 46 yards receiving in each of the last two games with Goff.
2. Daniel Carlson Over 1.5 made field goals (+130). Carlson has made at least two field goals in four out of the past five games. Harrison Butker made two against the Cowboys last week and Brandon McManus of the Denver Broncos made three against Dallas a couple of weeks ago. I like that we are getting plus money here.
3. Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170). It's definitely juicy, but throw it in a same-game parlay if you'd like.
Lottery ticket props
1. David Montgomery to score two or more touchdowns (+300). Montgomery rushed for two touchdowns the last time he played Detroit.
2. Ezekiel Elliott first touchdown scorer (+460). Elliott has had some solid Thanksgiving games and could be in line for another this year.
3. Last touchdown scorer: Josh Allen (+900). Maybe an Allen rushing touchdown at the very end of the game puts this one out of reach.
