We are now just a day away from the conference title games. In the first of Sunday's two contests, the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens will host the No. 3 seed Kansas City Chiefs for the right to call themselves AFC champions.
In our effort to break down these matchups from every conceivable angle, we're going to use this space to do a little tale of the tape type of comparison, breaking down which team has the edge at every different position. We'll do the same for the NFC finalists.
Without further ado...
Quarterback: Chiefs
Lamar Jackson is likely going to be named NFL MVP in a few weeks. He had a fantastic season, completing a career-best 67.2% of his passes at a career-high 8.1 yards per attempt, with 24 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, and he added 821 yards and five additional scores on the ground. It wasn't quite as legendary as his 2019 MVP campaign, but it was still really damn good.
Patrick Mahomes had a down season by his standards, matching Lamar with a 67.2% completion rate, but averaging a career-low 7.0 yards per attempt, with 27 touchdowns against a carer-high 14 interceptions. Obviously, we know all about the Chiefs' offensive struggles throughout this season and how Mahomes was consistently let down by his offensive line and especially his wide receivers; but still, Mahomes finished the regular season ranked just 10th in EPA/dropback, per Tru Media, the first time in his career he's finished outside the top 3.
And yet, Mahomes is playing in his sixth consecutive AFC title game, having won three of the previous five. I find it extremely hard to bet against him in any scenario, and although Jackson had the better season, there is at the same time little doubt in my mind that Mahomes is the better player. That doesn't necessarily mean the Chiefs will win, just that Kansas City has the edge at the game's most important position.
Running back: Chiefs
If Baltimore's running backs were healthy, this would be more of a debate. J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell bring a greater level of explosiveness than do Gus Edwards and Justice Hill (or Dalvin Cook), who mostly gain the yards that are blocked and not much more. Among the 68 running backs with 50-plus carries this season, they ranked 43rd (Edwards) and 45th (Hill) in explosive run rate. Isiah Pacheco was far ahead of both, even if he only ranked 26th, and he has proven to have far more utility as a pass-catcher than Edwards, in particular. Pacheco's ability to create yards after contact with his violent running style is key for Kansas City's offense.
Wide receiver: Ravens
This one is almost no contest. Kansas City has exactly one wide receiver whom opponents need to worry about on any level: Rashee Rice. He's been better this season than anyone on the Ravens (who have their own explosive rookie wideout in Zay Flowers), but the rest of the Chiefs' receivers are such a disaster that the Ravens can't help but have a better group. Kansas City wideouts had a sky-high 6.1% drop rate on the season, and drops were far from their biggest problem. The fact that Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are clearly the better group is a wild turn of events, considering the issues the Ravens have had at receiver in recent years.
Tight end: Chiefs
Travis Kelce remains the best tight end in football, even if he -- like Mahomes -- had a down season by his standards. He re-emphasized that reality last week with a huge game against the Bills. Mark Andrews is in the conversation for the next-best player at the position, but if he comes back this weekend he is unlikely to be at full strength. Isaiah Likely is a really good player, but he's not on Kelce's level, either.
Offensive line: Ravens
When the Chiefs embarked on their offensive line makeover after being torn asunder by the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl a few years ago, it was never supposed to be in the cards that they'd be working at a deficit up front. But their decisions at tackle this past offseason -- signing Jawaan Taylor to a massive deal and Donovan Smith to a smaller one -- did not work out. Meanwhile, the Ravens are once again one of the NFL's best in the trenches, even with Ronnie Stanley not being quite himself. Particularly on the right side of the line with Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses, Baltimore can just maul opponents, and center Tyler Linderbaum has given the group more athleticism.
Defensive line: Ravens
Chris Jones is the best individual player on either defensive line, a singular game-wrecking force on the interior. George Karlaftis is a good complimentary rusher. Mike Danna, Charles Omenihu, Derrick Nnadi, Tershawn Wharton and rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah are solid. Baltimore just has much more overall talent among this group, not least because we have to include players like Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy, who are listed as linebackers but operate as edge rushers. There's also Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce, Brent Urban, Travis Jones, Broderick Washington and Odafe Oweh. That's just more than what the Chiefs have to offer.
Linebacker: Ravens
Nick Bolton, Willie Gay Jr., and Drue Tranquill are a good group. But they are not Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen.
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Defensive back: Ravens
The Chiefs have a really good secondary. Trent McDuffie was named an All-Pro! L'Jarius Sneed might be even better than him in coverage. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are solid. Justin Reid, Mike Edwards and Deon Bush are a pretty good safety trio. But Baltimore might have the best and most versatile secondary in the NFL. It starts with Kyle Hamilton, one of the most dynamic second-level players in the league. Marlon Humphrey (when healthy) is fantastic, but even players like Brandon Stephens, Arthur Maulet and Geno Stone have shined at times this season. Marcus Williams didn't have his best year, but "not his best" is still really damn good.
Specialists: Ravens
Justin Tucker alone is probably enough to give Baltimore the edge here, but Devin Duvernay is also a very good return man and the Chiefs' return units have been a mess at times. (They use wide receivers Mecole Hardman and Richie James for most returns. Go figure.) So even if Harrison Butker and Tommy Townsend are good in their own right, we have to give the edge to the Ravens.
