A new season is upon us! That means a fresh batch of new faces, with plenty of anticipation especially at the quarterback position. It also means we get further and further away from the 'old guard' at the position, which gave me an opportunity to reflect and analyze how teams have fared after their all-time great quarterback departed.
Spoiler alert. It's really bad! When I think of the changing of the guard at quarterback, I think of big names like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning retiring, and Aaron Rodgers going to the Jets. There were also a handful of other Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks who changed teams or retired in recent years between Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton.
Here's how the teams they became stars with have done since they've left (In case you're curious, I was somewhat scientific here and looked at Pro Football Reference's Hall of Fame monitor to make sure I had the biggest names). I counted two teams for Brady and Peyton Manning because they won Super Bowls (and did other awesome things) with multiple franchises.
Okay, the results. Not a single one of these 13 franchises have ranked top 10 in the league in win percentage since their legendary quarterback left. None have made a Super Bowl trip.
Franchises after all-time great quarterback departed
| Team | Quarterback | Last Year | Win Pct Since |
|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Manning | 2011 | .531 | |
Peyton Manning | 2015 | .373 | |
Tom Brady | 2019 | .433 | |
Eli Manning | 2019 | .381 | |
Philip Rivers | 2019 | .463 | |
Cam Newton | 2019 | .284 | |
Drew Brees | 2020 | .490 | |
Matthew Stafford | 2020 | .480 | |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2021 | .559 | |
Matt Ryan | 2021 | .412 | |
Russell Wilson | 2021 | .529 | |
Tom Brady | 2022 | .529 | |
Aaron Rodgers | 2022 | .529 |
If these stretches were combined into one franchise, they would be the laughing stock of the NFL. For fun, let's pretend all the seasons from these teams collectively form a sad franchise known as the 'quarterback wilderness'. There's 50 seasons, 13 playoff trips and no Super Bowl appearances.
'Quarterback Wilderness'
Seasons | 50 |
Win pct | .455 |
Playoff trips | 13 |
Super Bowl trips | 0 |
Head coaches | 31 |
QB drafted in first round | 10 |
Guess what the Browns (the actual dumpster fire franchise in recent memory) have done in the last 50 seasons? Thirteen playoff trips and no Super Bowl appearances.
Browns' last 50 seasons
Seasons | 50 |
Win pct | .419 |
Playoff trips | 13 |
Super Bowl trips | 0 |
Head coaches | 20 |
QBs drafted in first round | 5 |
The 'quarterback wilderness' franchise has also gone through 31 different head coaches and 10 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over its half-century of seasons. This 'franchise' would be the butt of a lot of jokes if they actually existed.
Life after Brady, Peyton Manning, Brees and Co., has been tough, as it should be. Here's a look at each team's situation entering 2024:
Colts since Peyton Manning left
The Colts looked to be set with the perfect Packers-esque succession plan when they drafted Andrew Luck No. 1 overall after letting Manning go to the Broncos. It certainly seemed that way after Indianapolis rattled off three straight 11-win seasons to start Luck's career, but before you knew it Luck suffered a few injuries and then retired early.
They haven't had much success or continuity since and Anthony Richardson is actually going to be the first Colts quarterback to start in Week 1 in back-to-back years since Luck from 2015-16. There's still plenty of question marks around Richardson too after he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last year. He needs patience though to live up to his immense potential. Remember, he only has 493 career pass attempts between college and the pros.
Broncos since Peyton Manning left
The Broncos have had eight straight seasons without a playoff trip since Manning sailed into the sunset after Super Bowl 50. It's the longest streak ever by a team after a Super Bowl title. You can't say they haven't tried, but the Paxton Lynch first-round pick and Wilson trade were both all-in attempts that failed. There's promise with the Sean Payton and Bo Nix combination, but how that will work is still mostly a mystery. Nix will be the second Broncos rookie quarterback to start in Week 1, along with John Elway in 1983.
Patriots since Tom Brady left
The Patriots have already drafted two quarterbacks in the first round since Brady left: Mac Jones and Drake Maye. It could take a while for the latter to develop with one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL, one that was no help to Jones.
Giants since Eli Manning left
The Giants succession plan from Manning to Daniel Jones has been a roller-coaster highlighted by a playoff win vs. the Vikings, a lot of injuries and now a giant contract. One stat sums it up best. Jones hasn't thrown at least three touchdown passes in a game since he was a rookie. There's been 376 individual games with three-plus touchdown passes throughout the league since Jones last had one. Instability at the position led New York to look into trading up for a quarterback this spring. It didn't materialize, but Jones' days in a Giants uniform seem to be numbered.
Chargers since Philip Rivers left
The handoff from Rivers to Justin Herbert has gone about as well as possible. Herbert got a long-term contract extension and has the most passing yards through four seasons by anyone in NFL history. He looks every bit like a franchise quarterback and Jim Harbaugh should be able to get him his first career playoff win sooner rather than later.
Panthers since Cam Newton left
The Panthers have the worst record in the NFL since Newton was first released in 2020. They have had five different coaches in that span and Bryce Young is coming off one of the worst seasons by a rookie quarterback ever. There's still hope he will have a Year 2 leap that many No. 1 overall quarterbacks have had after early struggles.
Saints since Drew Brees left
The Saints have not made the playoffs in three seasons since Brees retired, and they still have not drafted a quarterback in the first round since Archie Manning in the early 1970s. Derek Carr does not appear to be the answer after a subpar debut in New Orleans last year.
Lions since Matthew Stafford left
The Lions are one of the few success stories here despite Stafford winning a Super Bowl in his first season with the Rams. They are coming off their first playoff win since 1991 and locked up Jared Goff to a lucrative contract extension. It's Super Bowl or bust now!
Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger left
Well, safe to say things did not work out for first-round Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh. He has the lowest touchdown rate (1.8% of passes) in NFL history and lasted two seasons with Pittsburgh. It's been so mediocre since Roethlisberger retired that the Steelers went the low-cost route this offseason with Wilson and Justin Fields. I wouldn't be surprised if neither was great in 2024, but somehow the Steelers still went 9-8.
Falcons since Matt Ryan left
Atlanta is coming off back-to-back 7-10 seasons since Ryan went to the Colts (and eventually retired). They gave up on Desmond Ridder and went the surprising route of signing a veteran quarterback to a monster contract (Kirk Cousins) and drafting his successor in the first round (Michael Penix Jr.). Good luck figuring out how that will play out.
Seahawks since Russell Wilson left
Geno Smith has been one of the best stories in the NFL since Wilson was traded. If Mike Macdonald could actually put an average defense on the field, maybe Smith will win his first playoff game.
Buccaneers since Tom Brady left
Baker Mayfield was another great story last year, leading the Buccaneers to a playoff win in their first season after Brady retired. Is he actually a long-term solution in Tampa Bay? We'll see.
Packers since Aaron Rodgers left
The Packers are in the best situation of any team on this list. Jordan Love's new deal is tied for the largest in NFL history ($55 million per year) and he led Green Bay to a playoff win last year after a great second half to the season.
Still, Brady, Peyton Manning, Brees and others aren't walking through these doors anytime soon (unless I missed some Brady news). For most of these teams it's been a tough grind walking through the quarterback wilderness. As exciting as a new blue-chip quarterback is like Maye, Nix or Penix Jr., the chances they have half the careers as some of the legends they are replacing are slim.