The final game of Week 6 pits division rivals against each other as the New York Jets play host to the Buffalo Bills on "Monday Night Football."
The Jets are coming off a wild week during which they fired head coach Robert Saleh and demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, while elevating defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich as the interim top man. They, like the Bills, have lost two games in a row -- albeit to significantly inferior opponents. Buffalo was embarrassed in back-to-back games, first by the Ravens (on the scoreboard) and then by the Texans (in terms of game management at the end of the fourth quarter), after looking like arguably the NFL's best team through the first three weeks of the season.
And yet, despite their issues, these two teams are actually the best in their division, and the result of this game will elevate one or the other to the top of standings. So, which of these two teams will lay claim to first place in the AFC East by the end of the night? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Jets vs. Bills
Date: Monday, Oct. 14 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -2; O/U 40.5 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
When the Bills have the ball
Buffalo's offense is coming off a pair of its worst performances in recent memory. The Bills got straight-up shut down by the Ravens back in week 4; and last week, Josh Allen went 9 of 30 for 131 yards against the Texans, completing just 1 of 16 throws of more than 10 air yards.
The Jets have been their usual stingy selves in pass defense, limiting opponents to the league's worst EPA per dropback figure, according to Tru Media. Opposing QBs have completed just 57.9% of their passes at an average of a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt, with 2 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. They have generated pressure on 39.8% of opponent dropbacks and a sack on 27.3% of their pressures, figures that rank sixth and second, respectively, in the NFL.
Slot corner Michael Carter II will be out for this contest, which could become an issue if Khalil Shakir -- who notably missed last week's sloppy Bills game -- suits up. Shakir finally got in a limited practice on Friday. He's been by far Allen's most dependable receiving option this season, and could be a very comfortable security blanket against a pass defense that tends to shut down perimeter wide receivers with the Sauce Gardner/D.J. Reed duo enveloping them on the outside.
It would help if James Cook were active as well, after going DNP - DNP - Limited in practices last week. Cook has run extremely well so far this year and has also been a huge part of the passing game. It is easier to run the ball on the Jets than throw on them, and the Bills surely don't want to rely on Allen to be their sole source of offense on the ground. If Cook has to sit, it will be just Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis in the backfield, leaving Allen as by far the most reliable part of the rushing attack.
It'll be interesting to see if New York's defense changes at all with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich promoted to interim head coach. He was already running the defense, but obviously under Robert Saleh's vision. Making any drastic changes probably would not be advised given how well the unit has played both this year and over the past few, but coaches always like to put their own touch on things when elevated to the top spot.
Allen has generally been up and down against this Jets defense over the past few years, with three games over a 100 passer rating and two below 70 against New York over the last four seasons. But he's mixed in some enormous running games against the Jets as well, specifically in terms of rush volume. If he can get going downhill against the Jets and force them to drop extra defenders into the box, that could open some things up down the field.
When the Jets have the ball
After firing their head coach and rescinding their offensive coordinator's play-calling duties, the Jets are a brand-new team!
Except, not really. This show is still being run by Aaron Rodgers, who is still a soon-to-be-41-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. Rodgers has looked for most of the season a) unable to navigate the pocket with his usual alacrity; and b) rather disinterested in pushing the ball down the field. That's not a good combination, folks.
The Jets have unfortunately begun the season against a very strong slate of defenses (49ers, Titans, Patriots, Broncos, Vikings), but they don't exactly get a break on that front on Monday night against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed a score on only 34% of opponent possessions, the eighth-lowest share in the NFL. They've also forced a turnover on 17% of possessions, the fifth-highest rate. The Bills have essentially a league-average pressure rate so far this season, via Tru Media, but they've gotten there despite blitzing less often than any team in the NFL (16.2% of dropback), allowing them to flood passing lanes with defenders and eliminate explosive plays.
If the Bills play on Monday night the way they have so far this season, it's likely to be up to new offensive coordinator Todd Downing to scheme up explosives for the Jets. It's not like we have seen much evidence that such a thing is possible with this unit; and with the way Rodgers operates the offense, there's obviously a chance that any schemed play just gets changed at the line of scrimmage anyway. That's been a very good thing for much of his career; but we've also seen seasons here and there where it has been less about getting into the right play than merely the play Rodgers wants to run at the time. And it has been much more of the latter this year.
The Jets desperately need to get both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson IV going. It's shocking that they have thus dramatically under-performed the level of play they established over the past two years with Zach Wilson under center; Hall is averaging a minuscule 3.0 yards per carry and3 39.4 per game. Wilson has a 57.9% catch rate and is averaging just 8.8 yards per reception. These are not the types of numbers we've come to expect from New York's two star skill-position players.
Buffalo hasn't been particularly effective against the run this season, overall, but much of those struggles can be attributed to one game where they yielded 271 yards to the Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry-led Ravens. Otherwise, they have been solid. With Ed Oliver out on the defensive interior, though, perhaps the Jets have a better chance to get Hall going. Slot corner Taron Johnson is listed as questionable, and if he sits, New York would be wide to get Wilson into the slot for some layup throws from Rodgers to try to create yards after the catch -- especially because much of the downfield stuff is unlikely to be available.
Prediction: Bills 20, Jets 16
The Jets technically have a fresh start after they fired Robert Saleh and demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. But they are still an undermanned team playing against an opponent that has answers for what they want to do. The Bills remain the class of the AFC East and take it upon themselves to prove it on Monday night.
Bonus: Mike Tierney, who is 41-27-4 on his past 72 picks involving the Bills, has released his pick for the Week Bills vs. Jets matchup. Tierney is leaning the Over total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at Sportsline.
