The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills clash on Sunday night on CBS in one of the most anticipated playoff matchups imaginable. Both teams are eyeing a potential date with the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game and ultimately their first Super Bowl trips since drafting their respective superstar quarterbacks.
Part of the excitement of this matchup will be the MVP debate. Both are very deserving. Consider there's been three instances in NFL history of a player with 40+ total touchdowns, 500+ rushing yards and fewer than seven interceptions in a season. It's 2024 Josh Allen, 2024 Lamar Jackson and 2019 Lamar Jackson. Jackson was the unanimous NFL MVP in 2019. Most years either quarterback would win easily.
Most would say the NFL MVP race is over, especially considering last week's All-Pro vote. Lamar Jackson was voted AP first-team All-Pro over Josh Allen, by the same voters who will decide the NFL MVP award. In fact, in case you were wondering, Sunday's game will have no impact on the MVP race as the votes were already cast after the end of the regular season and before the playoffs.
The last time the first-team All-Pro quarterback and MVP quarterback were different players was 1987 when John Elway won MVP and Joe Montana was first-team All-Pro. Despite the history, this race is not a done deal. Maybe history could even repeat itself. Montana finished third in 1987 NFL MVP voting (18 votes) after splitting votes with teammate Jerry Rice (30 votes, second place) following an NFL-record 22 touchdown catches. Elway finished first with 36 votes.
It's unlikely Derrick Henry will steal MVP votes from Lamar Jackson, but if there's any parallels to 1987, he could at least alter the perception of who is the "most valuable" player after rushing for over 1,900 yards this season.
Even though the All-Pro vote is almost always a precursor to who wins MVP, let's also consider how close this vote was. Jackson got 30 first-place votes for first-team All-Pro and Allen got 18. It was the closest vote since 2003 when it was also separated by 12 votes. Peyton Manning was first-team All-Pro over Steve McNair, but they split the NFL award, the last time the NFL had co-MVPs.
There are also some parallels in 2024 to 2003. One, Manning had a better supporting cast with Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Edgerrin James, than McNair did. There was also a 2,000-yard rusher (Jamal Lewis) in 2003 that stole MVP votes (five). Whose to say Saquon Barkley won't steal a few MVP votes from say, voters who picked Jackson as their first-team All-Pro choice? Also, perhaps more emphasis will be placed on "most valuable" over "best season" when flipping from the All-Pro to MVP vote.
The debate for the people's MVP award leading up to -- and after -- Sunday's playoff game will be entertaining needless to say. I'm here to tell you the MVP race is still alive, and break down all the narratives in the closest race in decades.
Who had the 'best' season?
If the All-Pro vote wasn't enough evidence, this race is indeed very close when you look at the numbers. By most quarterback rating systems, Jackson and Allen couldn't be much closer. Jackson was second in EPA per play (0.28) among qualified quarterbacks and Allen was third (0.27). Both trailed Jared Goff (0.29). Allen was first in ESPN's QBR (77.4) and Jackson was second (77.3). Separated by 0.1!
Both were very close when it came to total touchdowns, total yards and turnovers. Remember, Allen didn't play the last game of the season, either; he only started to keep his streak of consecutive starts going.
They had virtually the same turnover rate, reliance on YAC and explosive pass rate. You couldn't draw up a more compelling MVP race!
NFL MVP race tale of the tape (with QB ranks)
| 2024 Stats | Jackson | Allen |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 12-5 (6th) | 13-4 (5th) |
EPA per play | 0.28 (2nd) | 0.27 (3rd) |
ESPN's QBR | 77.3 (2nd) | 77.4 (1st) |
Total TD | 45 (T-1st) | 41 (4th) |
Total yds | 5,087 (2nd) | 4,269 (9th) |
Turnovers | 9 (T-7th) | 8 (4th) |
Turnover pct | 1.4% (4th) | 1.3% (3rd) |
Sack pct | 4.6% (7th) | 2.8% (2nd) |
YAC per comp | 6.6 (2nd) | 6.5 (3rd) |
Avg pass length | 8.7 (8th) | 8.3 (12th) |
Explosive pass rate | 17.7% (6th) | 17.6% (7th) |
It's as even as it gets, which is why we are having this conversation in the first place. I would still give the slight edge to Jackson in terms of who had the "best" season because of his rushing impact. He was the first quarterback ever with 40+ touchdown passes and 600+ rush yards in a season, and the first with 4,000+ pass yards and 800+ rush yards in a season. He was also the first with 40+ passing touchdowns and fewer than five interceptions. Even just his passing was historic.
Edge: Lamar Jackson
Who was more 'valuable' to their team?
One point being brought up by Allen MVP supporters is his supporting cast in terms of the value he brought. The Bills traded his No. 1 WR this offseason in Stefon Diggs, while the Ravens signed Derrick Henry, who rushed for over 1,900 yards. Excluding Jackson, the Ravens offense boasted four Pro Bowl selections and two All-Pros. The Bills offense sported one Pro Bowl selection not named Josh Allen (Dion Dawkins) and no All-Pro selections.
The supporting cast narrative appears to support Allen, but let's dive a little deeper. Let's not forget the Bills still have a very productive running back in James Cook. Cook actually ranked ahead of Henry (second vs. fourth) in EPA per play among running backs with 200+ touches this season. If anything, that shows Cook is definitely underrated, but Henry still had a bigger impact with a big edge in yards per touch (6.1 vs. 5.2), plus 847 more scrimmage yards.
Jackson had more to work with on offense in general. He led the NFL in average target separation (4.3 yards) per NFL Pro insights, while Allen ranked 11th (3.6). I think most would agree Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are a better collection of pass catchers than Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid.
You could argue Jackson had better weapons but Allen had a better offensive line. Buffalo allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks, including one in the final seven regular-season games. However, the Ravens actually ranked ahead (third) of the Bills (fourth) in ESPN's pass block win rate and significantly better in run block win rate (third vs. 17th).
Overall, Allen did more with less than Jackson.
Edge: Josh Allen
Who was better vs. NFL's best competition?
I threw a stat out there a few weeks ago in favor of Josh Allen's MVP candidacy. The Bills were the first team in NFL history to beat two 15-win teams between the 15-2 Lions and 15-2 Chiefs. Allen had 747 total yards, six touchdowns, one turnover and was not sacked once in those two games as the Bills snapped the Lions' franchise-record 11-game win streak and the Chiefs' franchise-record 15-game win streak, including playoffs.
Tough to beat that MVP statement, but Jackson boasts some impressive feats of his own. On 'X' my Allen MVP note was met with arguments that Jackson was 7-3 vs. playoff teams this season, and Allen was 2-3. Let's unpack that.
The Ravens finished with a +112 point differential vs. playoff teams in 2024, the third-best mark in NFL history behind the 2023 Ravens (+114) and 2007 Patriots (+118). A total of 407 QBs have had 200+ pass attempts in a season vs. playoff teams since 1970. Jackson's 2024 season ranked first in yards per pass attempt (9.1), second in passer rating (119.9) and fifth in pass touchdown-to-interception ratio (22-3, 7.3).
That's very compelling, but outside of record, Allen's numbers are right there with Jackson's against playoff teams and one of those losses was a 44-42 defeat to the Rams, where the Bills became the first team in NFL history to lose a game with at least six touchdowns and no turnovers.
This season vs. playoff teams
| 2024 Stats | Jackson | Allen |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 7-3 | 2-3 |
Total TD | 25 | 13 |
Turnovers | 6 | 2 |
Total YPG | 283.0 | 311.5 |
| EPA per play | 0.29 | 0.25 |
The Ravens played the 10th-hardest schedule in terms of opponent's final record (.529) this season, while the Bills tied for the third easiest (.467). Let's zero in on the defenses they faced, though. They put up nearly identical numbers vs. playoff teams and vs. top-10 defensive units this season, as measured by expected points added. The one caveat is Allen caught the Lions' 10th-ranked defense very undermanned when Buffalo beat them 48-42 in Week 15.
Jackson and Allen vs. top-10 defenses this season
| 2024 stats | Jackson | Allen |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 4-2 | 4-1 |
EPA per play | 0.27 | 0.29 |
Total TD | 15 | 11 |
Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
The Ravens played a tougher schedule, but Jackson and Allen put up very similar numbers vs. top competition. The Bills beat the best two teams in the NFL this season, but the Ravens beat the Bills head-to-head. In terms of who was better vs. the best competition, it's even for me.
Edge: Even
Who was more clutch?
Another aspect of the "Who stepped up when it mattered most" argument is the clutch factor. The Bills found themselves in very few clutch situations this season. The one that stands out is Buffalo's 23-20 loss in Week 5 in Houston. Josh Allen finished 9-of-30 passing in that contest, including 0 of 8 in the fourth quarter, the worst 0-fer by any player in the fourth quarter in 11 years! The Bills scored three points in four drives in the final period. But, let's not forget one of the best plays of 2024 when Allen ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down in the fourth quarter to seal the Chiefs' first loss of the season.
On the other hand, Jackson won two track meets vs. a division rival and MVP contender Joe Burrow. Jackson was 24-for-33 passing for 346 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in the fourth quarters of those games vs. the Bengals. That's an insane stat line for essentially a half of football. Jackson also stepped up late in losses to the Chiefs and Steelers that could have ended differently.
Overall, Jackson had a big advantage in EPA per play in the fourth quarter and overtime with a chance to tie or take the lead this season (0.25 vs -0.02), so he's the pick here.
Edge: Lamar Jackson
Who finished stronger?
Could "recency bias" factor into the MVP race? I doubt much at all, but, hey, every edge counts. Allen and Jackson combined for 43 total touchdowns and seven turnovers in the second half of the season.
Allen beat the Chiefs in Week 11 and the Lions in Week 15. In December, he became the first player in NFL history with 18+ total touchdowns and one or fewer turnovers in a calendar month. Jackson had two of his four worst games of the season in losses to the Steelers and Eagles while Baltimore clobbered the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns to close the season.
Slight, slight edge to Allen's stronger finish.
Edge: Josh Allen
Will voter fatigue have an impact?
Is this a thing? I think we naturally normalize greatness, but Jackson was so, so great this season and he got the edge in the All-Pro vote, so I don't think "voter fatigue" will hurt his case. Yet "voter energy" might help Allen's.
Allen finished top five in NFL MVP voting in three of the past four seasons and took a big leap in the one area that was keeping him from an MVP. He turned the ball over 22 times in 2023 but only eight times in 2024. There's evidence to support he actually played the "cleanest" football in NFL history. Only 4.2% of his plays resulted in a sack, fumble or interception this season, the lowest rate by any quarterback with 500+ plays in a season since the merger. Jackson was fourth in the league in that category this season (5.8%).
Could Allen's "leap," especially after the Stefon Diggs trade, sway voters psychologically? I can't get in their heads, but maybe. It shouldn't be too significant, but it could be a slight factor.
Edge: Josh Allen
Verdict
History points to Lamar Jackson after he won the tightest All-Pro quarterback vote in 21 years. He had one of the best statistical seasons of all time, one that was even better than his previous two MVP seasons. His Ravens beat Allen's Bills 35-10 in Week 4. Baltimore had one of the best offensive seasons in NFL history as Jackson and Henry formed arguably the most electric duo ever.
It's a very compelling case. Allen put up an equally impressive season that nearly matched Jackson statistically. He played maybe the most mistake-free football ever after the Bills traded Stefon Diggs in an offense with less star power. Buffalo beat the teams with the two best records in the NFL, and Allen was nearly flawless in those games.
In the end, I think Allen wins MVP in one of the closest votes of all time and bucks history that says the first-team All-Pro quarterback will win MVP.
Projected winner: Josh Allen
NFL MVP race tale of the tape
| Edge | |
|---|---|
Best season | Lamar Jackson |
Most valuable | Josh Allen |
Best vs. best teams | Even |
Best in clutch | Lamar Jackson |
Recency bias | Josh Allen |
Voter fatigue | Josh Allen |
NFL MVP | Josh Allen |
For those who are hoping for a tie, that would be nearly impossible after the MVP voting format changed in 2022. The nationwide panel of 50 sports journalists has five votes as opposed to one, now. The weighted system (10 points for first place, five for second, three of third, two for fourth and one for fifth) means a lot more points and almost zero chances there's a tie.
