NFL playoff picture: Who has the edge in crowded NFC West with five games left in 2024 season?

There is no division in the NFL through the 2024 season's first 13 weeks more tightly contested than the NFC West. 

Just two games separate the first place Seattle Seahawks (7-5) from the last place San Francisco 49ers (5-7) with the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams tied in the middle with 6-6 records. With that in mind, let's check in on all four teams and determine which of the four is most likely to come away with the NFC West crown four weeks from now. 

* Future division odds via Caesars Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers (+1200 to win NFC West)

Record: 5-7

Remaining strength of schedule: 14th-toughest in NFL (.533 opponent win percentage) 

Scoring offense: 22.5 PPG (16th in NFL)

Scoring defense: 24.6 PPG allowed (24th in NFL)

The San Francisco 49ers are experiencing their darkest possible timeline in 2024. They're in last place and in the midst of a season-worst three-game losing streak. San Francisco has been outscored by a brutal 43 points in their last two games combined (73-20) across a 38-10 loss at the Green Bay Packers and a 35-10 loss at the Buffalo Bills. That marked consecutive losses by 25 or more points for only the fourth time in franchise history (2005, 2006, 2015). It also made the 49ers the only defending conference champion since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to lose back-to-back games by 25 or more points. 

The primary reason for San Francisco's struggles this season are injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey, the 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, recently joined wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk in the club of 49ers difference makers out for the year after suffering a PCL tear in Buffalo on Sunday night. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) and 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa (hip, oblique) also haven't played in the last two 49ers losses.

How big a deal are these injuries to CMC, Williams and Bosa? Well, just take a look at how different San Francisco is in these players' respective 49ers careers when they play versus when they are sidelined. It's a night and day difference. 

San Francisco 49ers with and without top stars

• 23-8 with McCaffrey and 4-5 without him in his 49ers career
• 43-25 with Williams and 3-8 without him in his 49ers career
• 54-24 with Bosa and 5-12 without him in his 49ers career

While 11 teams in the last 19 seasons have made the transformation from having a losing record to ending the regular season on a winning streak of five or more games, it's unlikely to happen for this injury-plagued San Francisco outfit. SportsLine's simulation model gives the 49ers a 7% to win out and a 7% chance to make the postseason, so San Francisco fans needn't get their hopes up for a miraculous turnaround. 

Los Angeles Rams (+285 to win NFC West)

Record: 6-6

Remaining strength of schedule: 16th-toughest in NFL (.517 opponent win percentage)

Scoring offense: 21.2 PPG (20th in NFL)

Scoring defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (21st in NFL) 

The Los Angeles Rams are in the exact same spot they were in a year ago at this time through 12 games with a 6-6 record. Last year, they won four of their last five games to reach the postseason. However, they have been outscored by a combined 36 points this season, which is the worst point differential among .500 teams or better. It is worth nothing that much of that damage came in a 41-10 Week 2 loss at the Arizona Cardinals. 

A piece of good news for the Rams is that quarterback Matthew Stafford is starting to heat up. He threw nine touchdowns to seven interception in the rams first nine games of the year, but the last three weeks, two of which have resulted in Los Angeles victories, Stafford has thrown for eight touchdowns and no picks. The bad news is their final five games in the regular season aren't a cakewalk: vs. the Bills in Week 14, at the 49ers in Week 15, at the Jets in Week 16 and then home games in Week 17 (vs. the Cardinals) and Week 18 (vs. the Seahawks). 

Could the Rams pull another rabbit out of the hat and make a similar late season push in 2024 like they did in 2023? Perhaps, but it won't be easy. 

Arizona Cardinals (+175 to win NFC West)

Record: 6-6

Remaining strength of schedule: 6th-easiest in NFL (.393 opponent win percentage)

Scoring offense: 22.2 PPG (17th in NFL)

Scoring defense: 21.6 PPG allowed (11th in NFL)

Entering their Week 11 bye, the Arizona Cardinals were humming and on a four-game winning streak that had them out to a 6-4 record and sole possession of first place in the NFC West. They have since lost their last two games with a 16-6 defeat at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12 and a deflating 23-22 road loss at the Minnesota Vikings, a game in which they led 19-6 late in the third quarter. 

Quarterback Kyler Murray's ball security has slipped during the slide with three interceptions in the past two games after only throwing three in the team's first 10 games in 2024. Simply put, Arizona needs the efficient version of Murray back on top of his explosive dual threat ability: the Cardinals are 5-0 when he has at least two total touchdowns in a game, and they are 1-6 when he has one total touchdown or less. 

Murray has started to find the team's fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. more and more of late: he's caught three touchdowns in his last five games while averaging 61.2 receiving yards per game after catching four in the team's first seven games while averaging 42.9 receiving yards per game. Arizona tight end Trey McBride is currently producing at a clip not previously seen by a tight end in the modern NFL: he is the only tight end since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with consecutive games with at least 12 catches. Oddly enough, he has yet to catch a touchdown this season despite having the third-most receptions by a tight end this season (73) and the second-most receiving yards by a tight end this season (781). 

If Murray can find his top targets in the red zone more frequently, the Cardinals could pull off a rare worst to first NFC West finish from 2023 to 2024. 

Seattle Seahawks (+160 to win NFC West)

Record: 7-5

Remaining strength of schedule: 9th-toughest in NFL (.583 opponent win percentage) 

Scoring offense: 22.7 PPG (15th in NFL)

Scoring defense: 22.1 PPG allowed (12th in NFL)

The Seattle Seahawks are starting to round into form at the right time. They're on a three-game winning streak led by first-year head coach Mike Macdonald's defense. Seattle has allowed just 14.7 points per game during their three-game winning streak, the second-best mark by a scoring defense since Week 11 behind only the Detroit Lions' 10.7 points per game figure in the same span. The key has been limiting the big play as they have allowed only one play from scrimmage to go for 25 or more yards the last three weeks, the fewest allowed in the entire league in this span. 

Seahawks defense, last three games

Their efforts of late on that side of the ball have been spearheaded by defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who has 4.5 sacks, six tackles for loss and a pick six in the last two weeks. His efforts in the team's 26-21 Week 13 win at the New York Jets -- two sacks and a pick-six -- earned him NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors. 

Pairing that kind of defensive output with quarterback Geno Smith, whose completion percentage is the fifth-best in the entire NFL (68.8%) while throwing for the third-most yards in the NFL (3,241), makes the Seahawks a much more complete squad down the stretch. 

Verdict

The outcome of this division may come down to whoever wins the Week 14 matchup on Sunday between the Cardinals and Seahawks in Arizona. Should the Seahawks emerge victorious, they would have the head to head tiebreaker on lock while being up two games in the standings. Seattle has won six in a row against the Cardinals, including three straight in Arizona. 

However, should Arizona win in Week 14 to even their records at 7-6 apiece, the Cardinals have the much easier path to the division crown. Seattle still has games against two NFC contenders in the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and the Green Bay Packers (9-3) plus a matchup against a Rams team starting to heat up. For now, it appears the Seahawks defense will be the difference maker between these two teams on Sunday, thus giving Seattle the definitive edge in the NFC West hunt with an essentially three-game edge in the standings when factoring in the head-to-head tiebreaker.