This is an odd week for our purposes here. Only two divisional games on the entire slate served by this here column (taking the Thursday night AFC South "clash" out of the equation). I can't recall too many weeks like that.
We're still stuck in the doldrums. A lot of bad football being played out there, marred by constant penalty flags, inept offensive lines, coaches making irrational decisions, kickers who can't kick, referees who don't know the rules. It hasn't been pretty. It's still been oddly compelling.
As expected in this space a week ago, Week 4 offered few games where you could see two elite teams slugging it out, but once again featured plenty of wild finishes, mostly including some degree of a kicking failure. And at least one epic officiating fail.
Expect more of the same here, at least in terms of quality of play. The supply of quality kickers can't meet the increasing demand. There aren't many stud un-signed left tackles just hanging out at your local coffee shop. Whacking your head coach in October rarely improves anything, and begs the question -- who the hell are you replacing him with, anyway? Upgrades are few and far between.
Bottom line is there are few teams you can really champion as a true force at this point in the season -- despite many of them remaining undefeated. We get one of them, the Patriots, coming back off the bye, while Miami (thankfully), the Jets, Minnesota and Carolina take the week off.
Drop Everything
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Seattle at Cincinnati
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: It's still not close to January, so I'm not sure how much to read into the result of this game one way or the other when it comes to the Bengals, but a victory here will create even more room on their growing bandwagon and will ramp up even further expectations that this is finally the year the Bengals break through in the postseason. I'm not even sure I know what to make of the Seahawks yet. Andy Dalton is having far and away his finest season, but there aren't too many teams that can boast Seattle's defensive talent and prowess, and especially with Kam Chancellor's legs now more firmly under him after his holdout, this will be Cincy's best test yet. Some might even call this a potential Super Bowl preview. Personally, I can't go there yet, but the Seahawks do need to find a way to start winning games on the road and we'll have to see whether or not Marshawn Lynch can return for this game. He's a player who sets the tone on offense and would be particularly helpful against this tough Bengals' front. Bottom line is it's been a while since we've seen a game that could be billed as a meeting of Super Bowl contenders, and we should celebrate them when we get them.
What To Watch For: Bengals have the fastest starting offense in the NFL, scoring on all opening drives this season and producing touchdowns in three of those games. Seattle, on the other hand, has been as slow a starting team as any in the NFL, and has yet to score any points on the opening drive. The offense generally doesn't get going until the second half of games. If the Bengals can keep the throttle down, maybe they can finally pull away early. Cincy's awesome first quarters have generally been followed by tepid play … Another contrast: the Bengals enter the game with 22 plays of 20 yards or more, tied for the most explosive plays in the NFL, while Seattle is in the bottom five in that department. The continual emergence of TE Jimmy Graham in their offense could change that … Does that officiating-aided wind finally get the Seahawks energized and moving the ball on offense? Can their offensive line be fixed at all … If you gave Jimmy Graham back to the Saints and Max Unger back to the Seahawks, I think both teams are better for it. I like for the Bengals to attack this offensive line early with blitzes … The Bengals have three receivers averaging more than 16.5 yards per catch and three players with at least two receiving TDs already. Dalton has a rating of 139 on balls traveling over 20 yards in the air, second-best in the league among all regular starters … Dalton has been the best third-down passer in football this season … This secondary could challenge Dalton's decision-making, however. Richard Sherman can read eyes and if balls are forced into A.J. Green, Seattle will capitalize. Could be a big game for guys like Marvin Jones, because I expect the Seahawks' big defensive backs to do the job on TE Tyler Eifert … I anticipate a big game from Doug Baldwin against a Bengals' secondary that has some injury issues … Don't look now, but Gio Bernard now has more carries than Jeremy Hill on the season and is averaging a robust 5.5 per carry, but Hill continues to be featured around the goal line … This just feels to me like the kind of game Russell Wilson finds a way to win … The Seahawks got some help last week, but this has still been a pretty-much airtight defense since Chancellor came back, so look for them to deliver some early blows to these receivers to try to take away the middle of the field.
The Kids Can Raise Themselves
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St. Louis at Green Bay
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: The Rams seem to play up or down to their competition, and, with wins already against two of the NFC's top teams -- Atlanta and Seattle -- I tend to think they can give Green Bay a game here, too. They can pack that defense on the road and the Packers have had some offensive line injuries start to manifest themselves and Aaron Rodgers was menaced by the 49ers defense far more than I expected. This could be a bit of a defensive struggle. The Rams are not done beating up quarterbacks and Green Bay may opt for even more of a ball-control look here. Regardless, consider me intrigued by the timing of this one. The Packers are a little beat up after a physical game in San Francisco and the Rams are riding an emotional high after battering the Cardinals last week. Of course, I've cautioned many times before against believing St. Louis could string together a bunch of quality performances in a row. If they do, however, they quickly become one of the more interesting teams in that conference. Handing the Seahawks, Cardinals and Packers all their first losses of the season would be an accomplishment, especially doing so all by Week 5.
What To Watch For: Have the Rams finally found an offensive identity? Could it be? Rookie RB Todd Gurley's amazing second half against Arizona certainly gives them some hope in that regard, and might just salvage that offensive line, too. Jeff Fisher covets a physical style on offense to compliment his defense, and Gurley's breakthrough (15 rushes for 144 yards after doing very little in his first six quarters back from a significant knee injury) might be a panacea, because pass protection remains a critical issue. How much of a workload can Gurley really take must be monitored closely as well … There seemed to be some old frustration rising on the Packers' sideline with some of their red zone woes creeping up in San Francisco. Rodgers wasn't a happy camper at times … Rodgers has been historically good at home for years. At some point he has a total clunker, right? He is human? … The Rams return game can be difference maker: Benny Cunningham has taken six of his eight kick returns for 20 yards or more and Tavon Austin is third in NFL with two punt returns of 20 yards or more … If the Packers win this game, Randall Cobb has a big game and several catches over 20 yards (catching the Rams in a heavy blitz).Does Rams DC Gregg Williams temper the aggression at all against a quarterback who is so adept against pass pressure?
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Washington at Atlanta
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: These are two of the more surprising teams in the NFL, without a doubt, and in a year in which so few powerhouses abound, hope springs anew in Washington and Atlanta. Talk all you want about how Atlanta's schedule isn't that tough, but a move to 5-0 here would put them in tremendous position, while the Skins could end Week 5 on top of the NFC East. Crazy league. Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan knows Washington's personnel well from his time there and after leaving that organization on less-than-stellar terms, and he'll have a little extra for this game. He brought several former Redskins over with him to help run his offense for the Falcons, so the revenge factor will be considerable. Both of these teams want to play the ground control game as much as possible and keep things simple and are being rebuilt in a similar likeness. This could be an old-school throwback game here, with both defenses performing more admirably than they personnel might suggest as well and both offensive coordinators -- Bill Callahan and Shanahan -- arguably their team's first-quarter MVPs.
What To Watch For: Ball control. Skins lead the NFL with 11 drives of five minutes or more; Atlanta is second with 10. They are tied for the NFL lead with nine scoring drives of five minutes or more. And, you guessed it, they are the NFL leaders in time of possession (WSH: 36:19; ATL 34:17). The Redskins are actually rushing for a much higher average in terms of per rush and per game (Falcons only 3.7 per carry), but then again, Washington doesn't have Matt Ryan at quarterback, either … Devonta Freeman is displaying an uncanny nose for the end zone with six scores the past two weeks … It could be another week where the Falcons try not to have to rely as much on Julio Jones as he nurses through some ailments. Shanahan will be moving him all over the field -- even as a back in an I-formation at times -- regardless when he is on the field … The loss of TE Jordan Reed to a concussion is another huge blow at that position for the Redskins. Sapping the offense of some bread and butter … The Redskins went back to featuring Alfred Morris on the ground last week but that could change by the week. Matt Jones won't be a forgotten man … Kirk Cousins last-second, comeback drive in Week 4 should springboard that offense, which hopes DeSean Jackson is back soon … Atlanta's defense remains suspect but the critical element has been opposing teams rushing against them an NFL-low 19 times per game. The Redskins will try to shift that paradigm, obviously.
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Denver at Oakland
Sunday, Oct. 11, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: Heart-breaking loss for the Raiders last week, but this is a resilient bunch and they have some gumption and I'm interested to see how many top teams they can put a real scare into this season, if not defeat outright. Derek Carr seems up for a challenge every week and this has become one of the more entertaining offenses in the NFL, and if Oakland can hold well against this opponent things bode well for the rest of the season. All Denver does is continue to win, meantime, led by what has become a ferocious defense, with the expectation that the offense just won't do too much to screw it up. Two picks from Peyton Manning last week nearly tipped the game in Minnesota's favor until the potent pass rush bailed the Broncos out, again, and that defense will probably carry the day here again. But at some point it's going to take a more balanced program if Denver is going to get where it wants to go.
What To Watch For: Can DeMarcus Ware keep this up all season, at his age? He's actually defying age in a way many others are not, though I still have my suspicions as to whether he can maintain this pace in December and January … Is this the week Aldon Smith awakens? He has a month under his belt now, and is facing a weak offensive line. It's time to start feasting. He has just once sack for five yards this season and just 10 tackles … It's a big week for Raiders RB Latavius Murray. He can't turn the ball over and has to establish some tempo against a dominant defense … Denver still can't run the ball. Ronnie Hillman broke one for 72 yards and a score last week but every other carry went nowhere. On the bright side, this is one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and provides a rare chance for Manning to make something happen downfield … Weekly update on Manning in the shotgun (since it's the cure-all, and all): Ranks 27th in the NFL with a rating of 80.9, with 4 TDs, 3 INTs and 5 sacks. Averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt … The Raiders have allowed 108 offensive points scored, second-most in the NFL.
Well, It Is Professional Football
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Pittsburgh at San Diego
Monday, Oct. 12, 8:25 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Why To Watch: Pittsburgh had nine days to stomach its loss to Baltimore last week and figure out how to adjust to at least a few more games without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The team knows if it can go .500 or so in October than it is primed to take off in the second half when its passer returns. San Diego has struggled against the AFC North thus far this season and was lucky as heck to beat Cleveland last week after getting pushed around by the Browns for a good part of that game. With Denver still undefeated, if any potential AFC West rival is going to push the Broncos for a division title it had better get on a winning streak. Like now.
What To Watch For: Do the Steelers open up the offense a little more for Michael Vick this week? I think they might, especially against a Chargers defense that can't seem to do much right. Expect Martavis Bryant to make an immediate impact in his return from suspension as well … The Chargers get Antonio Gates back from suspension just in time after being down to three healthy receivers last week … Danny Woodhead is something else. Not many backs do it better in a two-minute and four-minute drill … Chargers have to figure out a way to get to the quarterback, soon … Antonio Brown's streak of consecutive games with at least five catches and 50 yards is over, but I bet he starts a new one here … The Chargers' offensive line injuries remain a significant concern … So it's Week 5 and the Steelers are already on their fourth kicker since the start of preseason. After last week's special-teams debacle, new kicker Chris Boswell opens on the road in what should be perfect conditions. He needs to get a few under his belt before he gets to the challenge of Heinz Field … The Chargers caught a major break with their rookie kicker when he got a do-over at the end of regulation thanks to an idiotic penalty from the Browns. We'll see if it served as a confidence-booster or not.
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Buffalo at Tennessee
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: I'm not quite sure what to make of this Bills team. They're very inconsistent in everything except managing to be inconsistent, and rack up a ton of penalties each week. Playing out-of-control football with a first-time starting QB and without LeSean McCoy and Sammie Watkins near 100 percent is not a smart way to go about trying to win football games, and it's undermining the Bills just about every other week. Now this should be a week where their on-again/off-again defense shines, especially against a rookie quarterback, but the Titans are coming off the bye and Marcus Mariota has been very, very good and this team has a chance to hang around in an abysmal AFC South.
What To Watch For: Mariota is the NFL's top-ranked passer on first down, going 20-for-33 for 270 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs and a rating of 126.3 … Stop the Bills running game -- as the Giants did last week -- and you stop the Bills, especially given some of their injury woes. The problem is for the Titans is that they have the second-worst first-down rushing defense in the NFL, allowing over 6 yards per carry … Can Rex Ryan get his team to calm down and play disciplined? Buffalo has 121 yards in personal fouls from its defense -- the NFL average is 41 -- and has the only two players in the NFL with three personal fouls (Jerry Hughes and Preston Brown) … Ryan's defense is also not nearly as explosive as normal. Buffalo is dead last in the NFL with only -49 negative yards created for opposing offenses (only three teams have fewer than their five sacks); the NFL average is -88 yards. Can they reverse that here?
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Cleveland at Baltimore
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: This has been a remarkably one-sided rivalry for the most part, but the Ravens have rarely been this vulnerable. Yeah, they finally won a game and beat Pittsburgh, and they come in off a long rest, but do so without the only proven playmaker on their offense (Steve Smith) and with their best defensive player out for the year (Terrell Suggs) and possibly with their left tackle (Eugene Monroe) still out as well. And while the Browns lost a tough one in San Diego, and while their defense is still a total mess, they did get the offense moving with Josh McCown and I think this could be a good spot for them to push for a win in Baltimore, which has been a rare occurrence for them indeed.
What To Watch For: Will Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman resist the urge to get too cute with literally no weapons in the pass game besides QB Joe Flacco and pound the ball on the ground? Cleveland's rush defense has been poor for years, Baltimore finally got Justin Forsett going last week and if Browns corner Joe Haden returns as expected, with no top wideout to worry about, there will ample chance to jump routes all over … The speed of Travis Benjamin could give Baltimore's poor-tackling secondary fits … Baltimore badly needs TE Crockett Gillmore back for this game, words I never thought I'd type. That could be the biggest key in their passing game … Can the Browns keep multiple backs productive and involved as they finally did a week ago? Makes them an infinitely more difficult team to play if they can do so … Look for a deep shot early from Flacco to new Ravens WR Chris Givens, who finally injects some semblance of speed -- albeit with limited ability -- into the lineup.
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New England at Dallas
Sunday, Oct. 11, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: I liked this matchup a whole lot more when Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were supposed to be playing in it. Now, it looks like it could amount to an extended bye week for the Patriots, who might be the best team in football, while the Cowboys are trying to stay relevant in hopes of a better second half if/when the reinforcements return from injury. Brandon Weeden's last-minute drive likely saved his job for a while, but Matt Cassel could get a look soon with Romo out until Week 11. As much as the Patriots deny it, we all know they are mega-motivated by the Deflategate mess and might just mess around with an undefeated season for a while and I doubt they take this one lightly even with Dallas' injuries.
What To Watch For: How long before the cart comes out on the field? The rate at which the Cowboys are losing key players is staggering but sadly judging from Sunday night, shows no signs of slowing down … Can Greg Hardy make an immediate impact in his first game with Dallas following a suspension? It could be a critical injection of speed off the edge. I'm less convinced of the impact Rolando McClain makes in his first game back from suspension … The Cowboys need Terrance Williams to build off his diving end zone catch last week and spreading the field against the Pats is much easier this season … New England is allowing nearly six yards per carry on first down; with a backup quarterback and Tom Brady on the opposite sideline, this is no time for Dallas coordinator Scott Linehan to get too cute … Should be another big week for Rob Gronkowski here. Even doubling him won't really slow him down … Expect to see more LeGarrette Blount as the season moves on.
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New Orleans at Philadelphia
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: Wasn't all that long ago that these two met in the playoffs with the Saints still an annual Super Bowl contender under Sean Payton and Chip Kelly seen as one of the most innovative offensive coaches in quite some time, who was building a title contender in Philly. Yeah. Not so much. Now they pretty much run offenses over-reliant on check downs and dink passes (Payton has an excuse given Drew Brees's shoulder situation) and hope and pray someone breaks an outside run here and there. How the mighty have fallen. Now one of them is keeping his fingers crossed he gets his second win of the season and the other may be plotting his next landing spot. Sure, there is plenty of time left and, yes, no one is going to run away with either of their divisions (I guess), but this is close to a must-win October game.
What To Watch For: Saints coordinator Rob Ryan can't resist blitzing and few quarterbacks have looked more lost when facing pressure than Sam Bradford. Bradford has also been prone to very slow starts to games, all the more reason to blitz him coming off the bus. Bradford ranks 38th, yes 38th, among all qualified NFL quarterbacks against the blitz (7-for-20 for 55 yards and no touchdowns for a 43.8 rating) and Philly's offensive line is barely holding on from week to week. Bradford will quickly chuck and duck (Trivia question: Guess who is tops in the NFL vs. the blitz this season? Hint -- his initials are NF and Kelly used to coach him) … Might start to see more of old familiar faces like Riley Cooper and Brent Celek featured more in this offense … How long before DeMarco Murray just verbally unloads on a coach on the sidelines? Does Kelly plan to give him any regular work? … You know Darren Sproles will be fired up to face his old team, but could C.J. Spiller on the opposite sideline beat him at his own screen game? … Neither of these teams has a dependable kicker should someone need to win a game late.
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Arizona at Detroit
Sunday, Oct. 11, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: The Lions have to win a game eventually, right? How much longer can this go on? It can't get any worse than the Megatron fumble and ensuing officiating debacle from Week 4, right? It might be a bad time to catch the Cardinals after they got knocked off for the first time this season a week ago, and the Detroit defense in particular could be in trouble here. Even in defeat last week, against a punishing Rams defense, the Cardinals had no shortage of big plays and their speed on offense could be very problematic here. Detroit's schedule continues to do it no favors, but that often happens when you come from nowhere to reach the playoffs; the climb gets deeper the following year.
What To Watch For: Five more passes of 20 yards or more from Carson Palmer last week. He's tied with Dalton for the most in the NFL (20) thus far in the season, and tied with Dalton for second in the NFL with three touchdown passes of that length. The Lions' suffering secondary could be in for a long day … Have to worry about Matt Stafford against this defense. He will throw it up for grabs and there are too many playmaking defensive backs on Arizona's roster to get away with it for any amount of time … Who would have thought a year ago at this time that Larry Fitzgerald would be looking like a spring chicken and Calvin Johnson would be the guy struggling to make an impact? Scouts have been telling me for a while this might not be the same Johnson anymore, and I'm becoming more inclined to believe them by the week. Inability to run or protect has something to do with it, but he may not be the same transformative weekly talent he was in his prime … I Like the spark Chris Johnson continues to provide the Cardinals in the run game. Need to keep rolling with him even as others round into better health … Wonder if the Honey Badger gets to work on Golden Tate, and Patrick Peterson maybe takes Megatron?
You've Got A Problem
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San Francisco at New York
Sunday, Oct. 11, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC)
Why To Watch: The Giants, after that 0-2 start that was largely self-inflicted, are starting to build momentum and make more plays and just might be on the cusp of taking the NFC East by storm. Cannot afford a slipup here. Not sure when the 49ers' next win is coming, but I give them credit for playing much harder last week and finally getting a pulse out of the defense. Problem is, the offense might be the worst in football. So, yeah, unless you have rooting interest in the NFC East somehow, I don't have much for you here. Oh, except the Giants have a fullback who plays on both sides of the ball. So there's that.
What To Watch For: Colin Kaepernick may have already played his way out of a job if the 49ers had any sort of developmental quarterback on the roster. But with Blaine Gabbert waiting in the wings, no one is in a rush to go to the back-up … The Giants continue to play opportunistic defense and rank fourth in the NFL with eight takeaways (and 37 takeaway points). They had 85 takeaway points all of last season … Eli Manning since Week 1: 70-for-107 for 783 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT for a rating of 105. Not bad at all … The 49ers might have their hands full with young RB Carlos Hyde. Seems like a high-strung guy who is clearly not at peace with what's going on there … Count the number of shots of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin languishing on the bench vs. how many times they are able to make a play in the game … 49ers average margin of defeat is 26 points, far and away worst in football.
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Chicago at Kansas City
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: If you like your teams handcuffed to starting quarterbacks through 2016, regardless of performance, because of their future guaranteed salary, well, boy have I got the game for you. Jay Cutler vs. Alex Smith. Actually, Cutler has thrown a bad pick or two -- he always will -- but has looked pretty darn good under coordinator Adam Gase when he's been able to play, while the Chiefs did some talking about actually running a big boy offense last week and opening things up, but ended up doing not much more beyond kicking field goals. I can promise you this -- there will be turnovers, and there will be points, with neither of these clubs able to play defense.
What To Watch For: Kansas City has top corner Sean Smith back, but will it matter? They have allowed 118 offensive points this season, worst in the NFL. And you might have concluded they are particularly bad in the red zone, where opposing teams have scored an NFL-high 13 times on 16 chances, including a league-leading 13 touchdowns yielded. This should be fertile ground for Matt Forte … Cutler till take some chances deep on a Chiefs team already surrendering 18 plays of 20 yards or more … Pernell McPhee has been a force for the Bears, on a defense on which pretty much no one else is making plays … Find Chiefs CB Jarnell Fleming if he is on the field, and chances are that's where the ball is going. He's been targeted by opposing offenses an NFL-high 31 times and he's been burned as per STATS, LLC, an NFL-high 21 times. He wears No. 30.
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Jacksonville at Tampa Bay
Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: Man, nothing gets me as fired up about this 2015 season as the fact the AFC South faces the NFC South. How about you? I mean, already it has provided some instant classics, like that Texans/Bucs atrocity from Week 3 and that Panthers/Jags epic in Week 1 in which I'm pretty certain there was not an offensive touchdown scored. So, I have super high hopes for this clash of the hapless. There could be some significant 2016 draft order ramifications, maybe even a tiebreaker for the first overall pick. In which case, the team that loses is actually the team that wins.
What To Watch For: Blake Bortles has never won on the road and the Bucs never seem to win at home, so something has to give … Jags rookie RB T.J. Yeldon is second in the NFL in most runs for negative yardage with 11 (LeSean McCoy leads the league, despite only having 43 rushes all season) … Jameis Winston to Mike Evans is going to be a thing, it just might take some time … With Andrew Luck not playing last week, Winston caught him for the NFL turnover lead with 8. Bortles has been much better protecting the ball this season, a big positive in his development if he can keep it going.
