I'm turning this into revenge weekend.
Spend a little time thinking about the slate of games in Week 6, and see how long you can hold your breath at the same time, and the mind starts to do strange things. You see patterns where, maybe, they're not even there. You travel to a bad place, one where coaches have fire in their eyes and owners vow retribution on other teams and the league office, and football games start look like a complicated web of scorn and emotion.
I have been wronged, and therefore now I must take it out on you.
At least that's how I see it, under the circumstances. It's my motif of the week, and, frankly, it's pretty obvious in some places and I'm perfectly willing to jerry-rig it in a few others to suit my overall theme. It's a week that is pretty top and bottom heavy and not too much in the middle (which, when you think about it, is how the league is going with the haves and the have nots).
With so many teams playing bad football, it's going to be difficult to pretend that several games each week are already amounting to little more than jockeying for 2016 draft position. If you see one of these teams with one win or less and you really want to make the case it has any business whatsoever being viewed as a playoff team -- even in this era of unbridled "parity" -- I'd love to know on what grounds. Because they all look fatally flawed to me, as do several teams with two wins as well.
Meantime, the Cowboys, Raiders, Bucs and Rams get the week off, and, for the most part, I think we could agree that's basically a good thing (though I do remain on the Oakland bandwagon).
Drop Everything
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Arizona (4-1) at Pittsburgh(3-2)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: The Steelers didn't want Bruce Arians anymore. Let him go hit golf balls, they said. Well, not really, but they pretty much intimated it. Big Ben needs a new coordinator. Of course, all Arians has done since then is mess around and be a coach of the year finalist like every year since. He brings his Cardinals to Pittsburgh scoring at a historically significant rate and their plus-100 scoring differential is 27 percent better than anyone else in football. Arizona is trying to charge ahead in the NFC West to a point where it can't be caught. The Steelers, meanwhile, are trying to stay within shouting distance of the Bengals in the AFC North. There's also an outside shot that Ben Roethlisberger himself returns for this game well ahead of schedule, which would make the subplots even more delicious. Arians has yet to call off the dogs much this season and if his team gets on the kind of early roll it has been, he may see an opportunity to keep running it up here. The Steelers will need a stout defensive effort and need to get off to a fast start, which hasn't always been the case this season.
What To Watch For: If Michael Vick is still under center, then Steelers coordinator Todd Haley is going to have to resist temptation to match wits with Arians and keep things simple. The speed and tenacity of this Cardinals defense could be too much for Vick and they have ball-hawkers all over the field. I would expect to see not just Le'Veon Bell in the run game, but also DeAngelo Williams … If Big Ben plays I bet the Steelers go back to forcing the issue with two –point conversions, especially against this offense … The Steelers have quietly been much better on defense this season and the increased speed at linebacker is starting to show … Arizona's average margin of victory this season is a whopping 26 points. They can't keep that going on the road at Heinz Field, could they? … The Steelers kicking game will be under constant scrutiny and this is their first home game since Josh Scobee's struggles cost them a Thursday night game and led them to their novice replacement. An early miss would not be met kindly … Chris Johnson continues to develop big plays in the run game; runs that would have gone for 70 yards to the house can still go for 50 yards at a time now, and some of the outside zone stuff Baltimore worked against the Steelers fit Johnson's style … John Brown's speed out of the slot is going to cause significant problems for Pittsburgh's secondary … Don't look now, but Larry Fitzgerald has 11 catches of 20 yards or more, three more than anyone else in the NFL ... It could be another week for the Steelers without WR Martavis Bryant; there is concern his injury suffered in practice last week will linger … Antonio Brown is once again leading the NFL on catches for a first down on third down … The Steelers need to protect the football and grind the clock; the Cardinals have turned 13 takeaways into an NFL-best 62 points … How does Tomlin top his game-ending decision from Monday night? Go for it on fourth-and-30 from his own 10?
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New England (4-0) at Indianapolis (3-2)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Why To Watch: You probably haven't heard anything about this before, so let me clue you in on something. The Colts accused the Patriots of illegally doctoring footballs in the AFC playoffs. Yes, really. This happened. And then NFL went bonkers and spent millions over-reacting and handing out ridiculous penalties. Then the league got taken to court by New England QB Tom Brady and his suspension was overturned by a federal judge. The Pats' owner got really pissed and took a bunch of shots at the league and his team tends to pound the hell out of opponents in these situations. Did I mention the Colts alerted the league about possibly-deflated balls before and during and after getting curb-stomped by New England in the AFC Championship Game? And Bill Belichick coaches the Patriots and an elephant never forgets and hell hath no fury like a billionaire owner scorned. And the Colts have been thoroughly unconvincing as a playoff threat this season. This could be scorched earth people. Oh yeah, and Andrew Luck comes back from a two-game absence after 40-year old Matt Hasselbeck saved Indy's season. And the Patriots have yet to lose. Come on, man. Vince McMahon couldn't write a script this over the top.
What To Watch For: Tom Brady has little to fear in terms of pass rush from this defense and he will be in full carving mode. Even if Vontae Davis can do the job on Rob Gronkowski -- debatable in and of itself -- Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola could still own the middle of the field … Dion Lewis will continue to be a dervish on third down in the screen game … Can the Colts stick with the dink-and-dunk approach under Hasselbeck that helped to mitigate the beating the offensive line had been subjecting the quarterback to? Did a few weeks off curb Luck of his tendency to force far too many balls up for grabs? … Belichick will have some sort of trick up his sleeve for this one. It might be a new formation or a pass to a kicker on fourth-and-one from is own 35 or Brady quick kicking on fourth down or who the hell knows. But a message or two will be sent … Count the number of ball pressure gauge thingies fans bring into the stands but by all means do not drink a shot every time one is shown on the broadcast … Was that Andre Johnson performance in Week 5 a statement of intent or a one-day wonder against his former team? I'm thinking it may say more about the state of the Texans defense than anything else … Expect a ton of Frank Gore early in this game as Luck works his way back from the shoulder injury and this offense tries to recalibrate. The Pats run fits were better last week but they are still allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the season. At any point this week, does Vegas just move the point spread to infinity? I might still take the Pats … Any chance the Colts figured out a way to stop LeGarrette Blount yet?
The Kids Can Raise Themselves
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San Diego (2-3) at Green Bay (5-0)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: All of the MVP talk about Aaron Rodgers -- totally justified as always by the way -- has obscured the fact that Green Bay's defense has actually been the biggest reason for the past two victories. Clay Mathews and B.J. Raji are taking care of business in the middle of the field and the secondary has been tremendous getting their hands on footballs. At a time when the offense has tended to bog down some around the red zone, the defense is carrying the day. The Packers get another strong test here, with a Chargers team that, let's face it, is going to live or die with Philip Rivers' arm. These kind of mano-y-mano matchups with top quarterbacks tend to bring out the best in Rivers, and he now has security blanket Antonio Gates back with him getting a game under his belt last week after a four-game suspension. Of course, the last time Rivers faced an NFC North team he was running for his life all over the field in Minnesota and the Chargers must find a way to get past a brutal loss at home Monday night.
What To Watch For: Could Rodgers actually throw interceptions in consecutive home games after going like four years between tossing any picks at Lambeau Field? The tempo and pace and consistency in this offense has waned some the past two weeks and as the sample size expands it certainly seems like the loss of Jordy Nelson will loom larger. It has shown up in the red zone recently … I still can't believe the rest of the NFL conspired to allow James Jones back to Green Bay, especially given how many teams lack playmakers at receiver. All he does is have five touchdowns in five games … Teams seem committed to taking away Randall Cobb -- though I am not sure the Chargers have the ability to do so given the state of their defense. Cobb has just eight catches for 69 yards since catching three touchdowns in Week 3 … Not sure when Melvin Gordon will really get going, but Danny Woodhead will see plenty of the ball for San Diego here … With each week that goes by with the Chargers scrambling to find sufficient offensive linemen and receivers to get through a game, I hate myself a little bit more for picking them to win the AFC West. See how long it takes before they reshuffle their line. It generally only takes about two drives for it happen … There is not much doubt that Rivers is going to be looking for Gates on third down.
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Cincinnati (5-0) at Buffalo (3-2)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: The heady days of fall continue for the Bengals, who are probably the best team in the NFL right now. Of course, I've said the same thing around this time twice before in the last five years, and that plus 25 cents will get you a call from a phone booth (assuming they still exist in some ulterior universe). Marvin Lewis was quick to say last week's epic comeback win over Seattle didn't mean much, and let's see if his bunch retains its focus against a Buffalo team that just may actually find a way to be too high after narrowly escaping the Titans. Can Rex Ryan handle that kind of success for his too-fired-up team? I ask this in at least partial seriousness.
What To Watch For: Raise your hand if you had a Bills' backfield of EJ Manuel and Boom Herron as the Colts' starting backfield for Week 6? Because that's what you could be getting with Tyrod Taylor nursing a knee sprain and Buffalo suddenly out of options at running back … The Bills should take a shot at working out Ray Rice. Boobie Dixon is too heavy to carry anything close to a regular role and running the football is paramount for this group and LeSean McCoy will be out likely for a while. I don't expect Karlos Williams to play, either. The Bills can't just rely on Taylor to scramble like crazy each week and Ryan knows Rice and thinks highly of him … Keep Taylor in the pocket and you beat the Bills. It's not quite that simple, but then again it is. The Titans allowed him to get upfield for a few big runs last week and it was the difference in the game (Taylor tied for the NFL lead with five rushes of 20 yards or more. Manuel isn't nearly that special running with the ball and the pace of this offense could sag … Percy Harvin continues to have a heck of a time making it all the way through a game without requiring medical attention and his presence has become increasingly vital to the Bills maintaining any sort of continuity on offense … If it's a close game, look out for Andy Dalton. He ain't messing around in the fourth quarter this season -- he leads all passers by completing 22 of 29 passes for 347 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs and a near-perfect rating of 154.7 … I'll write this again this week, however: If he keeps forcing balls to A.J. Green in the end zone and barely concealing his intent, it will result in a pick a week … The Bills will have their hands full with TE Tyler Eifert.
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Carolina (4-0) at Seattle (2-3)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: It wasn't that long ago the Seahawks ended the Panthers' dream season in the playoffs, but who would have guessed that since that game Carolina is undefeated and the Seahawks are just 3-4, including the playoffs? Carolina is fresh off a bye while Seattle is licking its wounds after suffering once of the worst losses of the Pete Carroll era by blowing a 24-7 lead at Cincinnati in the fourth quarter. If the Seahawks are going to re-emerge as an NFL heavyweight, then this is a must-win game and the team's troubles on the road have left it almost no room for margin at home, where it usually takes care of business, anyway. Carolina is trying to keep pace with Atlanta in the reborn (maybe?) NFC South and picking up a win Sunday would be quite the confidence boost for a team that isn't always pretty but just finds a way to win games.
What To Watch For: We're on track to get the return of Marshawn Lynch and Luke Kuechly in one fell swoop, which would set up as one of the more impactful individual matchups of this contest. I can't imagine Lynch missing a third straight game barring a setback … If Cam Newton manages to get another win here, then expect his MVP consideration to go from a whisper among only those paying very close attention to his play each week, to much closer to a roar. I'm not sure anyone has meant as much to his team as Newton has through the first quarter of this season. He just keeps making plays … The Seahawks had a long flight home to seethe over their suspect secondary play last week. It's hard to imagine them being off two weeks in a row and Carolina is very limited in the kind of routes it can really be productive in. That leads to DBs getting chances on jump balls. Teams still can't run the ball on Seattle -- 3.5 yards per carry -- which makes me think this team will be OK in the long run … The Seahawks just aren't going to force feed balls to TE Jimmy Graham. It's not how they operate and especially when Lynch is back it's all about establishing the point of attack and play-action passes off of that … Seattle could still make a change at center to try to improve the offensive line play.
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New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia (2-3)
Monday, Oct. 19, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Why To Watch: The Eagles are back, or so Chip Kelly would intimate, if not outright scream. In the last six quarters they have shown an ability to move the football, but is it fool's gold? The Giants don't have an elite defense either, but as far as NFC East football goes, these two could be battling for a home playoff game and Philadelphia is already 0-2 within the division and can't drop games to foes at home. New York has found a way to reverse its fourth-quarter foibles from early in the season, but the dirty little secret for both of these teams is they have relied on a timely turnover from their defense more often than not to stay in games and win them. We'll see how opportunistic they can remain and if they can keep their prime-time performances going. Seems all the Giants do is play night games, beating Washington on a Thursday night and then San Francisco two weeks later on a Sunday night and now getting a Monday night gig. Is Odell Beckham, Jr. really that big of a draw?
What To Watch For: Sam Bradford might be getting on a roll here. Things are still pretty limited in the overall scope of the offensive attack, but he's certainly been more effective the last two weeks … It continues to look like Ryan Mathews might be the better fit in the Eagles' run game and it takes a lot of work to get it going with DeMarco Murray … The Giants have some issues at receiver with the injuries to Ruben Randle and Beckham, on top of the absence of Victor Cruz. They'll take it to the wire to see if either can play, and without them it could be difficult to keep pace … Shane Vereen is cementing his place in the offense more each week and if the state of the health of the receivers does not improve soon, he could be seeing more than 10 targets a game … Only Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan have more passing yards than Eli Manning, who also had 10 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season … If the Eagles offense is going to take the next step, it may require Zach Ertz to be a part of it. The young TE has just 15 catches for 164 yards through five games without a touchdown … These two teams are tied for the NFL lead with three red zone giveaways each. That could be the difference in the game here.
Hey, It Is Professional Football
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Washington (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: If the Jets can pick up after the bye where they left off before it, then they have a chance to push for a wild-card spot. When so many teams are spiraling, if the Jets just manage to keep it simple and not beat themselves, then they could be set up to do some damage. This is something of a must-win for the Jets, with New England looming in Week 7 and the playoffs perhaps a realistic option. Washington continues to stay in every game it plays, but has suffered from bad luck and bad bounces. Not much was expected of either of these teams, frankly, and I suspect they continue to surprise people for quite some time. This should be an old-school, bare-knuckles battle with both teams living and dying with the run game and swarm tackling on defense.
What To Watch For: The Redskins have to find a way to balance the ability to run Alfred Morris and Matt Jones but also ride one of them when need be. Things were off-kilter against the Falcons last week and they face an infinitely more potent defensive front this week … Don't look for a ton of snaps from Jets stud DL Sheldon Richardson in his first game back from suspension. Coach Todd Bowles has talked a lot about the need for him to be in game shape, the rotation up front is already stout and I figure Richardson works in on third downs to start … Kirk Cousins gets tagged with the pick in overtime last week, but he held up well overall and that interception came from a teammate slipping more than anything else. I bet he responds well this week … A healthy Chris Ivory and a healthy Darrelle Revis should mean good things for the Jets … This could be the most physical football game of the week.
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Denver (5-0) at Cleveland (2-3)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: So the Browns come in posting up massive offensive numbers and the Broncos have one of the least powerful offenses in football. Just as we all expected, right? Cleveland has a pulse left on its season, solely because of Josh McCown and a recharged passing game, despite a defense that does little well from week to week. The Broncos are undefeated because they give up the second-fewest offensive points in the NFL and continue to score regularly on defense. The reality of this game is that at this point in their careers, McCown is a far more prolific passer than Manning, and I can't believe I ever wrote that sentence. Denver is using a tricky equation to go on this streak and consider me among those who are far from certain it will hold up come January.
What To Watch For: Manning has thrown as many interceptions as Jameis Winston. And only two teams in the NFL are averaging fewer total offensive yards per game than the Broncos, who rank third-worst in yards per carry and sixth-worst in overall QB rating -- and have yet to lose. That tells you all you need to know about good the defense has been … Of course, everyone runs the ball on the Browns, so if Denver can't do it here it might be doomed for the season … TE Gary Barnidge continues to make plays downfield for the Browns, though his run of success could end against this secondary … Teams are actually daring Manning to throw the ball on them downfield figuring they could jump all over any throw to the sideline, but with Joe Haden likely out with a concussion, odds of completing balls here are much higher. Your weekly update on Manning in the shotgun -- now down to 33rd-rated passer, with four TDs and four INTs. Sorry folks, that ain't the answer. Problems run way deeper than that … Oh, and revenge factor -- maybe the Browns finally get some revenge of John Elway for The Drive and The Fumble all of that by handing Elway's team his first loss of the season here?
You've Got A Problem
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Kansas City (1-4) at Minnesota (2-2)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: The Chiefs pretty much stopped playing football last week once Jamaal Charles went down with a season-ending ACL tear and you wonder if that slide continues for much of the season. Few teams have looked as hopeless as this lot and blowing a 14-point lead at home to Chicago last week puts a nail in the coffin. Minnesota, coming in off a bye, should be able to get a little fat here and ease back into the season. I like the Vikings to peak in the second half of the season and be a factor in the NFC wild-card race. It's time to take care of business here, while I continue to wonder if at some point the Chiefs just bite the bullet and give Chase Daniel an extended look at quarterback, despite owing Alex Smith another $14M next season.
What To Watch For: The Vikings have been very conservative with Teddy Bridgewater and I don't see that changing here with the Chiefs' primary strength being the pass rush. They will ride Adrian Peterson and the Vikings are averaging a gaudy 4.95 yards per carry on first down … The Vikings need to find a way to get some deep receiver going, but with Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace both beat up, that might be easier said than done … Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston leads the NFL with 19 combined quarterback hits and knockdowns. The big money contract, amid a lost season for his team, has seemed to only motivate him more … Jeremy Maclin is averaging 97 yards a game for the Chiefs, but has just one touchdown from that and there are only two from the entire receiving corps as that problem continues to linger.
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Chicago (2-3) at Detroit (0-5)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Why To Watch: The Chicago Bears have, somehow, the semblance of a defense. They lack players on that side of the ball and are a rebuilding team, but coordinator Vic Fangio has managed to get them to fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per game and the effort given has been startling and I'm not sure anyone saw it coming. Add in the fact that Jay Cutler is very quietly doing good things with offensive coordinator Adam Gase and the Bears have a chance to crawl back to .500 without anyone seeming to notice. Of course, they win here and it would drop the Lions to 0-6 and you would tend to think that last week was rock bottom for Detroit after getting destroyed by the Cardinals with QB Matt Stafford benched, but, then again, there is a lot of football still to be played.
What To Watch For: Matt Forte giving his all for the Bears and carrying the heaviest of loads. With Alshon Jeffery still iffy, he remains the key cog to everything Chicago does on offense (and likely will continue to be whenever Jeffery does return). Forte leads the NFL with 120 touches and is second with 609 scrimmage yards … Pernell McPhee keeps up the ridiculous tear he is on and he'll go down as the best big-money free-agent signing of 2015. He's a massive part of why this Bears defense has been able to overachieve … The Lions are still getting next to nothing from Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Neither is averaging even 65 yards per game, neither is averaging over 10 yards per catch, and they've combined for just one touchdown. Maybe Stafford sitting will lead to something going on offense … The Lions are managing to average 2.8 yards per carry, and have been out-rushed by nearly 400 yards already this season.
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Baltimore (1-4) at San Francisco (1-4)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: This was supposed to be The Harbaugh Bowl, Version 3.0, but alas that plot line went out the window when the 49ers "parted ways" with Jim Harbaugh with a year still left on his deal. How's that worked out for them? Suffice to say, the 49ers brass is probably not thought of real highly by the Harbaugh family, but Jim's brother, John, just needs to find a way to win a football game. Actually, after playing to record-ratings when their teams met on Thanksgiving, and then again in the Super Bowl, this contest has lost almost all allure as a Tomsula/Harbaugh affair. How the mighty have fallen all around with both these teams blowing late leads a week ago to each fall to 1-4.
What To Watch For: The Ravens have no proven weapons in the passing game with Steve Smith still ailing, but two of their former top targets are on the opposite sideline. Anquan Boldin can still move the chains and Torrey Smith is still a burner, but mostly a decoy and a dude to try to draw a flag in this 49ers offense. Their departures haven't worked out all that well for either squad as it stands right now … Colin Kaepernick showed much better awareness and accuracy last week. Can he keep it up? Seems like a decade ago that he and Joe Flacco had a nationwide McDonald's commercial together … Baltimore's defense gets worse by the week. Kaepernick could probably run wild on them if he set his mind to it … If this is close, the Ravens are among the most-penalized teams in the NFL and the 49ers are among the least -- a few yards here or there could be the difference.
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Houston (1-4) at Jacksonville (1-4)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: Oh boy, I don't know. The battle to stay out of the bottom of the worst division in football? The rebirth of Brian Hoyer, Part IV? This is as desperate as it gets, when you have one coach making his third quarterback switch of the season in Week 6 and the other, perpetual optimist Gus Bradley, a man wired to be incapable of a negative thought, begins to concede the onset of frustration. The good news for the Jags is the game is at home, so that gives them at least some hope, because they are thoroughly unable to be victorious on the road.
What To Watch For: Will Bill O'Brien continue to enthrall America by making a quarterback change before the completion of the third quarter of a game for the third time this season? We can always hope … Not sure which of these two defenses is actually worse than the other, but I suppose we're about to find out … Blake Bortles actually continues to make strides, but the ineptitude around him largely obscures it … Julius Thomas grabbed two balls for 20 yards in his first game back from injury and I would expect his targets to quickly escalate … Bortles' running ability is the only thing keeping the Jags offense afloat at times. He's averaging eight yards per carry … J.J. Watt is overdue for a monster game. There's normally no better opponent to feast on, though the Jags have been marginally better in that regard recently.
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Miami (1-3) at Tennessee (1-3)
Sunday, Oct. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Why To Watch: You wouldn't dare miss the onset of the Dan Campbell Era in Miami. Don't even think about not tuning in. And if you happened to run into Campbell in a GNC store or something, no way in hell would you be willing to tell him you were sitting this one out and finding something else to do at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. He'll have none of that. The anti-Joe Philbin takes over in Week 5, and we'll see if Suh and the rest of the Dolphins' tepid millionaires actually start to play football somewhere close to their ability now. Color me doubtful that the ascent of a tight ends coach and the promotion of a new defensive coordinator now convinces dudes to start playing hard. Getting a shot at a Titans team that simply cannot close a game out isn't a bad way to be eased into the position, though, especially with Miami coming off the bye.
What To Watch For:Any chance if the Dolphins fall behind early that Campbell has them do Oklahoma drills at halftime instead of head into the locker room? … The Dolphins have to at least double their team season sack total of one here, right? Marcus Mariota is being sacked on 10 percent of his drops, fourth-most of any fulltime starter … Suh has to make a tackle or two at or behind the line of scrimmage, right? … Miami's secondary is a mess and I bet Mariota has a decent day against them … The Dolphins will show more intent in getting the ball downfield, but I just have serious questions about Ryan Tannehill's ability to do so in a timely and accurate manner … What are the odds Philbin himself is watching this one on the television at home? I'm thinking less than 50 percent.
