Browns-Steelers predictions for Thursday night, plus Joey Porter Jr. trade grades and NFL Week 4 picks

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I don't know what you guys will be doing for the next 61 days, but I know what I'll be doing: Watching football. The month of October is kicking off with a bang because today marks the beginning of a stretch where there will be at least one college or NFL game every day for the next 61 days. That means there will be at least one game every single day between now and Nov. 30. 

This is certainly going to test my theory that you can never have too much football. The fun starts tonight with the Browns facing the Steelers in Cleveland, and we'll break down that game in today's newsletter, plus we'll hand out some grades for the Joey Porter Jr. trade, which went down last night while you were sleeping. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Steelers at Browns

October is the month of scares, and it's kicking off with the scariest game possible for the Steelers: A Thursday night divisional road game. The Steelers are one of the most successful franchises in NFL history, but one thing they haven't been able to figure out how to do is win a Thursday night game on the road. 

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Steelers are 3-16 in Thursday night road games, and that includes going 0-9 when they're facing a divisional opponent. That's right, the Steelers have NEVER won a divisional road game on a Thursday night. And if they want to end that streak, they'll have to beat a Browns team that has somehow won NINE straight Thursday night home games. 

Both teams are 2-1, so the winner here will head into Week 5 with at least a tie for the AFC North lead. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Steelers can win: If the Browns can't score, they can't win, so this game might come down to how well the Steelers' defense plays. The Browns are averaging just 266 yards per game, which is the third-lowest number in the NFL. The Steelers will be countering with a defense that has given up the seventh-fewest yards this year. One thing the Steelers have done well this season is force turnovers. Their defense has forced a total of six on the year, and if they can force Deshaun Watson into an interception or a lost fumble (like they did with Joe Burrow in Week 3), that could be the swing the Steelers need to pull out the win. 
• Why the Browns can win: The Browns have won two games this year, and their recipe for success has been pretty similar in each game: Their defense keeps them in it, and then the offense works some magic in the fourth quarter. That's not necessarily a formula you want to live by every week, but it could work tonight. The Steelers offense hasn't been great this year, so the Browns should be able to turn this into a low-scoring slugfest. If the defense can keep things close, Deshaun Watson might be able to do the rest. Surprisingly, Watson has the highest QB rating (148.4) of any QB in the fourth quarter this year. He's been almost perfect, going 20-of-25 for 253 and three touchdowns. Basically, he's been unstoppable in the fourth quarter, and that fact is likely going to give him a lot of confidence if the Browns need a late game-winning drive. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Aaron Rodgers OVER 0.5 rushing yards (-140 at FanDuel): If Aaron Rodgers gains just ONE yard tonight, this bet will hit. Rodgers had 10 rushing yards in Week 3 against the Bengals, and that was after having five in Week 2 against the Patriots. Remember, being sacked doesn't count against his rushing total, so if he takes off just ONCE tonight, there's a good chance that this will hit (the only thing that could kill this prop is if he takes a knee at the end of the game, because those lost yards will count against his rushing total).   
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Steelers and Browns to both hit at least two field goals (+230 at BetMGM): The Browns are averaging two field goal attempts per game, and with points likely coming at a premium, I think we'll see at least two field goals by Andre Szmyt. As for the Steelers, Chris Boswell has eight attempts already, which is the second-most in the NFL through three weeks. I think this will be a field goal battle. I won't be surprised if we see each guy hit three, but I'll play it safe and go with two. At +230, this is a solid payout considering how much both of these teams like to kick field goals. 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 5-7 (2-4 on kicker props and 3-3 on all other props).

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Steelers 20-14 over Browns
John Breech's pick: Browns 19-16 over Steelers
Jordan Dajani's pick: Steelers 21-17 over Browns
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Steelers 21-17 over Browns
Prisco's pick: Browns 21-20 over Steelers

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our six experts are somewhat split on this game, with two of us taking the Browns to win and four of us taking the Steelers. 

2. Joey Porter Jr. traded to the Cowboys: Full details, plus grades 

The Joey Porter Jr. drama has finally come to an end in Pittsburgh. In a late-night deal that went down just before midnight ET on Wednesday, the Steelers made the decision to send Porter to the Dallas Cowboys. 

Here's a look at the trade details: 

• Cowboys receive: Joey Porter Jr. 
• Steelers receive: 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick (that 2027 draft pick is actually a pick the Cowboys GOT from the Steelers as part of the George Pickens trade, so now they're just giving it back). 
• Other notable parts of the deal: According to multiple reports, the Cowboys are NOT planning to give Porter a new contract right away. Porter was angry with the Steelers because they wouldn't give him a new deal, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to not immediately getting a new deal in Dallas. 

The biggest weakness the Cowboys had on defense was definitely at corner, and this move addresses that. The Cowboys are so eager to get Porter out on the field that there's actually a chance that he'll be suiting up for them on Sunday against the Texans, according to ESPN. Our resident Cowboys reporter in Dallas, Garrett Podell, has a full breakdown of why the Cowboys needed to make this trade, and you can check that out here. 

TRADE GRADES

Whenever there's a big trade, there's a 100% chance we're going to hand out grades for that deal, and that's exactly what we did in this situation. Bryan DeArdo was in charge of handing out the grades for this deal: 

• Cowboys grade: C. Money is the biggest reason why the Cowboys lost this trade. Dallas already has some expensive players on the payroll (including on the defensive side of the ball in Quinnen Williams, DaRon Bland and Kenny Clark), and now, they're about to shell out even more money for a player who has never been selected to a Pro Bowl. Dallas also still has the pending George Pickens contract to address. If Porter excels in Dallas and he can help the Cowboys make several deep playoff runs (including this year), Jones' latest gamble would have been well worth it. But if Porter fails to live up to his expected contract, this trade will be remembered as another situation where Jones bit off more than he can chew. 
• Steelers grade: B-. It's hard to give the Steelers a much higher grade. While Porter reportedly drove a hard bargain, it's safe to say that the Steelers could have avoided this mess if they had handled the situation with more urgency during the offseason. From a performance standpoint, losing Porter makes the Steelers a weaker team. But after the two sides couldn't agree to terms before Week 1, Porter essentially forced their hand. The Steelers had no choice but to trade him.

You can read our full story on the Porter trade here. 

3. NFL Week 4 picks: Chiefs stay undefeated, Texans get their first win

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself — handing out picks each week. For the first time in this newsletter's history, all five of us tied last week, but we can't even brag about it, because we all went 8-8. If a tie is like kissing your sister, then we all had a disastrous weekend. 

I don't want to think about that anymore, so let's move on to the Week 4 picks. 

If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 4 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 4 picks; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Bengals (-2.5) 23-17 over Jaguars. From Prisco: "The Bengals are back home after two weeks on the road, losing to the Steelers last week. The Jaguars beat up the Patriots last week, but this is a tougher challenge with Joe Burrow and that passing game. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense, but that won't hold up here. Bengals take it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 4 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Rams (-3) 24-20 over Eagles. From Sullivan: "When watching the Eagles play this season, it's clear their offense is still a work in progress. They have yet to score in the first quarter this season (the only team in the NFL yet to score) and have the highest three-and-out rate (29%) since 2025. When you pair that with a defense that has yet to generate a turnover and has registered just three sacks, there's an opportunity for the Rams to get out to an early lead and never look back." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 4 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Broncos (+3) 24-23 over 49ers. From Dajani: "I'm leaning toward the Broncos again in this spot because of the 49ers' injuries. Nick Bosa is going to miss some time with knee/calf issues, wide receiver Mike Evans injured his rib, linebacker Dre Greenlaw sat out of practice Wednesday with a quad injury and we'll see what the status of left tackle Trent Williams is later in the week. Denver is 5-1 straight up in its last six games as an underdog, and Bo Nix is 10-0 in his past 10 games vs. NFC opponents." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin — Texans (-2.5) 24-21 over Cowboys. From Dubin: "The Cowboys need their offense to be perfect in order to win games. Offenses, generally, cannot be perfect against the Texans' defense. Houston should also be getting Nico Collins back here, so I think the Texans can actually move the ball for a change." For the rest of Dubin's Week 4 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech — Chiefs (-4.5) 30-23 over Raiders. From me: "I think this game will be close, but I feel like the Raiders are going to struggle to stop Kansas City's offense. Kenneth Walker is currently the NFL's leading rusher, and the Raiders could go all-in on trying to stop him, but if they do that, then Patrick Mahomes will pick them apart. On the other hand, if they go hard after Mahomes, then Walker will run for 150 yards. I feel like the Chiefs are on a year-long revenge tour, and they're going to sweep their AFC West games to make up for going 1-5 in the division last year." For the rest of my Week 4 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 4 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

4. QB power rankings: Brock Purdy is on fire through three weeks

Every week during the NFL season, Garrett Podell ranks every quarterback in the league. We won't be breaking down his list every week, but we will be checking in periodically, including today. 

Here's a short explanation from Garrett of how his QB ranking works: "These rankings are fluid and designed to tell the story of each starting quarterback's respective rise and/or fall throughout the season." 

Basically, this ranking isn't based on what any QB has done in the past; it's only based on what they've done this year.

After three weeks of action, let's check out the top three names on the list: 

1. Brock Purdy, 49ers. There have only been two quarterbacks in NFL history with 10-plus total touchdowns and no sacks taken through the first three weeks of a season: Hall of Famer Dan Marino in his 1984 NFL MVP season and 2026 Brock Purdy. Purdy leads the NFL in passer rating (133.1), passing success rate (63.9%) and expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.62) while co-leading the league in passing touchdowns (9). Purdy earned the top spot entering Week 4.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. THE Patrick Mahomes might be back. He has the Chiefs out to a 3-0 start, and once again, no one is better than him when throwing outside the pocket. Mahomes leads the league in both completions (26) and passing touchdowns (4) outside the pocket this season. He also ranks top 10 in the NFL in virtually every key passing metric. 
3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Jackson was nearly perfect throwing the football in the Baltimore Ravens' 34-31 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, completing 15 of his 20 throws for 186 yards and two touchdowns while also adding 50 rushing yards. He needed just six seconds to get Baltimore in position for a game-winning, 56-yard field goal after hitting Zay Flowers for a 27-yard gain on the first play of the game's final drive. Jackson is fourth in the league in passer rating (113.1), third in the league in EPA per dropback (0.31) and he leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt (9.8).

Purdy has been playing at a high level through three weeks, and if he carves up the Broncos on Sunday, you can bet he's going to be on top of this list again next week. 

Garrett ranked every starting QB in the NFL, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here. 

5. Projecting all 14 teams that will make the NFL playoffs: Vikings might be for real

The playoff projections are back! We first unveiled them after Week 1, and now, we're back with another batch. Sure, it's hard to predict who's going to make the playoffs after watching each team play just three games, so that's why we brought in our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh. 

Oh simulated the rest of the season to see how things will end up playing out, and let me just tell you, if his projections pan out, we're going to get quite the surprise when it comes to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

With that in mind, here's what the playoff field looks like according to Oh's projections: 

AFC
1. Chiefs (3-0) -- AFC West champion
2. Bills (3-0) -- AFC East champion
3. Ravens (2-1) -- AFC North champion
4. Jaguars (2-1) -- AFC South champion
5. Broncos (2-1)
6. Bengals (2-1)
7. Colts (1-2)

AFC breakdown: If our projection is right in the AFC, that means we're going to have three new division champions this year. The only team being projected to repeat as champion is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Winning back-to-back titles would be huge for a Jaguars team that hasn't won consecutive division titles since 1998-99. That was so long ago that the AFC South didn't even exist (the Jags won the AFC Central title in those two seasons).

NFC 
1. Vikings (3-0) -- NFC North champion
2. Seahawks (2-1) -- NFC West champion
3. Eagles (2-1) -- NFC East champion
4. Panthers (1-2) -- NFC South champion
5. 49ers (3-0)
6. Lions (2-1)
7. Bears (2-1) 

NFC breakdown: In the NFC, the computer gave us a huge surprise with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS earning the No. 1 overall seed. They say that defense wins championships, and the computer is clearly buying into that theory, because the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL. 

Not only did the computer project the entire playoff field, but it also picked a surprising Super Bowl winner. If you want to know who that is, you'll have to check out my full story here. 

6. Extra points: Bears refuse to name a starting QB for Week 4

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Ben Johnson not ready to name a starting QB for Week 4. With Caleb Williams almost certainly out for this week's game against the Jets, the Bears will be turning the QB job over to Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum, but Ben Johnson isn't ready to say who. Keenum played well in a Monday win over the Eagles, but Bagent is officially the No. 2 QB on the roster, so it could go either way. Johnson has apparently made a decision about the QB for this week, but he just doesn't want to share it with anyone. "The direction's already been made, so we'll be in good shape for Sunday," Johnson said Wednesday.
• Controversial pass interference shouldn't have been called. According to Rams' coach Sean McVay, the NFL has admitted that a controversial interference on cornerback Josh Wallace in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter shouldn't have been called. The Broncos' receiver Pat Bryant essentially admitted that he flopped on the play, which isn't exactly a great look for the NFL. After the PI, Bo Nix ended up scoring a game-winning TD for the Broncos, who beat the Rams 30-26.  
• Jayden Daniels returns to practice. It seems that the Commanders QB might actually play this week in London. Daniels, who had a brace on his left arm, returned to practice on Wednesday. The Commanders want to see how functional Daniels can be in the brace before committing to him as the starter for Sunday's game against the Colts. If Daniels can't go, then Marcus Mariota will get his second straight start.