In just a few days, the entire NFL will be in the thick of training camp, which is a time where you hear and read stories about players that ooze with optimism.
Players are in the best shape of their life, ahead of schedule in their injury recovery, the new quarterback-wide receiver duo has instant chemistry, a second-year player is a primed for a leap now that the game has slowed down for him, the franchise quarterback will reinvent his game and soar to new heights, the offense has never been faster, etc. The same goes for coverage of the teams themselves with many that missed the playoffs being labeled as "sleepers" or "surprise playoff contenders."
It makes sense because teams have new players from the draft and free agency, almost the entire league is healthy at the moment and looking forward to getting back to playing football again after months of rest and reenergizing. However, this 2024 NFL season preview piece will not be full of these vibes because here the task is to identify the last-place finisher for each of the league's eight divisions. Doing this exercise a year ago, yours truly ended up correctly calling four of the eight bottom dwellers for the 2023 season.
AFC East: New England Patriots
2023 season finish: 4-13 (last place, no postseason)
The New England Patriots are in the midst of a clear rebuild: They cleaned house by letting go of six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach Bill Belichick and hiring first-time head coach Jerod Mayo, one of Belichick's former players and assistant coaches. They also selected North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye third overall after shipping Mac Jones off to the Jacksonville Jaguars in exchange for a 2024 sixth-round pick.
The defense is certainly ready to be competitive now, ranking as a top 10 total defense (301.6 total yards per game allowed), despite playing alongside the worst scoring offense in Belichick's reign (13.9 points per game, second worst in the entire NFL) in 2023. The wide receiver room doesn't have any established game-changing weapons with Kendrick Bourne, veteran K.J. Osborn, second-year receiver DeMario Douglas, 2024 second-round rookie Ja'Lynn Polk, 2024 fourth-round rookie Javon Baker and journeyman Jalen Reagor.
Jacoby Brissett is a nice, journeyman bridge quarterback, but it's unfair to him as well as Maye to expect them to outduel Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers (if healthy), or Tua Tagovailoa and their respective offenses. New England's rebuild is going in the right direction, but it's still a couple years away.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns
2023 season finish: 11-6 (second place, lost 45-14 vs. Texans in AFC wild-card round)
The Browns defense was awesome in 2023: Cleveland led the NFL in total defense (270.2 total yards allowed per game. That unit, and the team at large, was propelled by 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett with quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and running back Nick Chubb (knee) working their way back from season-ending surgeries. Cleveland did bring in the 2015 NFL Draft's first overall pick -- quarterback Jameis Winston -- on a one-year, $4 million deal as an insurance policy on Watson.
It seems as though Watson snapping out of playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in football feels unlikely as the veteran works his way back from shoulder surgery.
Watson as a Cleveland Brown (since 2022)
| WATSON | NFL RANK* | |
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct | 59.8% | 41st |
Pass Yards/Att | 6.5 | 36th |
TD-INT | 14-9 | 31st |
Passer Rating | 81.7 | 37th |
* Among 45 QBs with 300+ pass attempts
The major discrepancy from Watson's three-time Pro Bowl tenure with the Houston Texans (2017-2021) and his toxic start to his Browns career is his deep ball efficiency or rather lack thereof. Watson was one of the 10 most accurate quarterbacks in the entire league when throwing passes of 20 or more air yards in Houston with a 43% completion rate on such throws, the sixth best in the NFL. In Cleveland, that figure has declined to 28%, which ranks 38th among 45 quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts since 2022.
As long as Joe Burrow remains upright for the Bengals, the Browns should fall back down to the AFC North cellar with Watson being their guy at the game's most valuable position.
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
2023 season finish: 6-11 (last place, no postseason)
The Tennessee Titans are reshuffling the deck in Nashville, officially closing the door on their previous era of football built around head coach Mike Vrabel, face of the franchise running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Tennessee has done well to utilize its cap space to help out first-time NFL head coach Brian Callahan, who came over from Cincy where he was the offensive coordinator under head coach Zac Taylor. The Titans signed Jaguars' top receiver Calvin Ridley on a four-year, $92 million contract, Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl running back Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract, Denver Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III to a four-year, $50 milllon deal and Bengals longtime slot security blanket Tyler Boyd to a one-year, $2.4 million deal. The Titans also drafted Alabama All-American offensive tackle JC Latham seventh overall.
All of that came with the intent to coax more efficient play out of Levis, whose 10.5 air yards per pass attempt were the highest in the NFL last season, but at the cost of his completion percentage, which was an NFL-worst 58.4%. After throwing four touchdowns in his NFL debut against the Atlanta Falcons, tied for the most in NFL debut ever, Levis threw only four more in his final eight games to go along with four interceptions. A trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley and Boyd should help remedy this issue.
The offensive line is still very much a work in progress, though. They allowed a 42.3% quarterback pressure rate, the third worst in the NFL, and Latham is switching positions from right tackle, where all of his starts at Alabama occurred, to left tackle to protect Levis' blind side. He need some time to get fully acquainted to the speed and ferocity of the NFL game while adjusting to a new role.
Tennessee's defense also got a boost in free agency, trading for and then signing two-time Super Bowl champion cornerback L'Jarius Sneed. His 4.7 yards per pass attempt allowed was the best in the NFL among the 53 players with at least 75 passes thrown their way, to a four-year, $76.4 million contract.
However, the offensive line and Levis are probably a year or two away from being a strong challenge the rest of the division especially since the Texans (Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry), Colts (Kwity Paye, DeForest Buckner, Dayo Odeyingbo, Samson Ebukam, Laiatu Latu) and Jaguars (Joshua Hines-Allen, Arik Armstead and Travon Walker) all have potent pass-rush units that are primed to overwhelm a developing offensive line and quarterback.
AFC West: Denver Broncos
2023 season finish: 8-9 (second place, no postseason)
The Denver Broncos quarterback room consists of 2024 NFL Draft 12th overall pick quarterback Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham after cutting Russell Wilson loose this offseason.
On the bright side, Nix does fit the mold of what Payton liked about Drew Brees when he was putting up video game numbers in Payton's offense: a quarterback willing to make short, quick passes. To be clear, this is not saying Nix will be the next Brees.
Nix set college football's single-season completion percentage record (77.4%) in 2023 at Oregon while utilizing the eighth-fastest time to throw (2.48 seconds). He threw 22 touchdowns and zero picks on throws that he fired in under 2.5 seconds last season. Brees owns five of the top seven best NFL single-season completion percentages in league history, a collection that includes each of the best three single-season completion rates all time.
While at Oregon in 2022 and 2023, Nix's 6.6 air yards per pass attempt at Oregon from 2022 to 2023 ranked 105th out of 109 qualified FBS passers in that span. That is probably a byproduct of throwing screens on 12.4% of passes with Nix under center the last two seasons, the fifth-highest rate among Power Five teams and the eighth-highest rate in all of college football. These metrics indicate that the Ducks might not have trusted Nix enough to take the training wheels off when he dropped back to pass.
So, Denver's options are a rookie Nix, Wilson -- who ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage (57%), touchdown to interception ratio (23-25) and passer rating (73.2) during span of his career (2021-23) -- and journeyman Jarrett Stidham. That kind of quarterback room is one that looks like it will lead the Broncos to a last-place division finish in 2024.
NFC East: New York Giants
2023 season finish: 6-11 (third place, no postseason)
The New York Giants, as HBO's "Hard Knocks" has clearly shown, are rebuilding.
They allowed their best offensive player, Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley, to hit the open market and leave in order to address the interior of their offensive line, signing former Packers guard Jon Runyan Jr. (three years, $30 million) and former Raiders guard Jermaine Eluemunor (two years, $14 million). Those signings are significant because the Giants surrendered 85 sacks last season, the most in the NFL and the second most in a single season in NFL history, trailing only the 1986 Eagles (104). As general manager Joe Schoen put it on the season premiere of "Hard Knocks" a few weeks back, "Pat Mahomes, he can't f---ing win behind that."
New York also dealt three picks (a 2024 second, a 2024 fifth and a 2025 fifth) in exchange for two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns in a trade with the Carolina Panthers, a transaction that subsequently led to re-signing Burns to a five-year, $141 million extension. Selecting LSU All-American wide receiver Malik Nabers sixth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft gives Daniel Jones a new No. 1 target in what is perhaps his last chance to prove he can be the long-term answer for the Giants. The presence of Nabers is notable since New York hasn't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. back in 2018, the longest active drought in the NFL.
To put it simply, the offense isn't reliable enough to believe in anything other than a last place finish.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
2023 season finish: 7-10 (third place, no postseason)
The Minnesota Vikings possess one of the best offensive ecosystems in the NFL led by 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who was recently made the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league on an average per year basis with his four-year, $140 million deal.
He is surrounded by 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson, Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones and head coach Kevin O'Connell, all of whom will support whichever quarterback they start between Sam Darnold and 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy. The problem is Darnold is a journeyman for a reason despite being picked third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft -- he's underwhelming -- and McCarthy's draft profile is that of a bust.
McCarthy is the first first-round quarterback selected with zero collegiate seasons with either 3,000 passing yards or 500 rushing yards since Minnesota took Christian Ponder 12th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft out of Florida State. The last quarterback selected in the top 10 like McCarthy without either such season was Detroit Lions 2002 third overall pick, Oregon quarterback Joey Harrington.
Like the Broncos in the AFC West, the Vikings have a quarterback room that screams last place.
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
2023 season finish: 2-15 (last place, no postseason)
Bryce Young, the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, saw his worst-case scenario play out during his rookie season with the Carolina Panthers.
Young's 5.5 passing yards per attempt and 73.7 passer rating ranked as the worst in the entire NFL in 2023, making him only the second first overall draft pick rookie to be the worst in both since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger along with Troy Aikman back in 1989. Those 5.5 yards per pass attempt are the fourth fewest in a single season in NFL history, among quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts. Tough start indeed.
Fewest pass yards/attempt in a season all time (min. 500 attempts)
| SEASON | QB/TEAM | YARDS/ATTEMPT |
|---|---|---|
2003 | Joey Harrington/Lions | 5.2 |
2001 | Chris Weinke/Panthers | 5.4 |
2014 | Derek Carr/Raiders | 5.5 |
2023 | Bryce Young/Panthers | 5.5 |
Not all of Young's struggles in 2023 were solely on him. The Panthers offense allowed the fourth-highest quarterback pressure rate in the NFL last season (42.1%), which led to him taking a Panthers single-season record 62 sacks. His pass-catchers didn't help him out much, either, since Carolina registered the league's fifth-lowest expected points added per target, a statistic partially indicating his receivers weren't all that open even when Young was able to deliver the football their way.
Thus, the Panthers were on a mission to upgrade the offensive environment surrounding Young over the last few months. They were big spenders in free agency when it came to the offensive line, inking longtime Seattle Seahawks starting guard Damien Lewis to a four-year, $53 million contract as well as signing former Miami Dolphins guard Robert Hunt to a five-year, $100 million deal with $63 million guaranteed.
However, expecting him and Carolina to go from two wins to out of the basement in one year feels like asking for too much too soon.
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals
2023 season finish: 4-13 (last place, no postseason)
Arizona should be much improved with a full season of a healthy Kyler Murray at quarterback and the addition of generational wide receiver prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. (fourth overall pick in 2024 NFL Draft out of Ohio State), but it doesn't quite have what it needs defensively from its front seven to slow down the rest of the division just yet. They were the second-worst scoring defense in football a year ago (26.8 points per game allowed), and remain green at key positions on their defensive front.