The 2024 NFL regular season is just days away, which means all of the league's 32 teams are peddling optimism.
However, it's important to sift through all the sunshine and roses in order to set realistic expectations for the 2024 season. Sure, there are surprises every year in the NFL: the Houston Texans went from drafting second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft to the AFC divisional round, and the Green Bay Packers reached the NFC divisional round in the first season after Aaron Rodgers.
Keeping that in mind, which squads should be viewed as legitimate contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy out of the NFC? Which ones are the likely bottom feeders? Which ones are somewhere in the middle? Here's an educated assessment of the NFC's 16 teams and where they belong across five tiers.
Tier 1: Real-deal contenders (3)
San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions
The case for the San Francisco 49ers is abundantly clear: they were in overtime of the most recent Super Bowl, needing just one more defensive stop against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the first time since the 1994 season. They didn't accomplish that task, and win it all, but they return much of the crew that got them there last season. That will remain the case whether or not Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season. Coach Kyle Shanahan's offenses in the Bay Area have averaged the most yards per play (5.9) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) among any coach in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), among those who have 100 games under their belt.
NFL offensive leaders/co-leaders in 2023 on 49ers
| Player | Stat They Led or Co-Led the NFL in 2023 |
|---|---|
Brock Purdy | Pass yards/attempt (9.6) and passer rating (113.0) |
Christian McCaffrey | Rush yards (1,459) , scrimmage yards (2,023), scrimmage TD (21) |
Deebo Samuel | YAC/rec among WR (8.8) |
Brandon Aiyuk | Pct of catches to go for a first down or a TD (81.3%) |
George Kittle | Yards/catch among TE (15.7) |
Defensively, the 49ers remain stout in their front seven led by Pro Bowlers Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Javon Hargrave. San Francisco was the only team in the league last season to rank inside the top three in both scoring offense (28.9 PPG) and scoring defense (17.5).
The Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers round out the top tier of the conference since both gave the 49ers all they could handle in the postseason before both losing by a mere three points in games both led for the majority of play.
Detroit locked down three pillars from their top five scoring offense (27.1 PPG, fifth-most in the NFL) this offseason, re-signing quarterback Jared Goff (four years, $212 million), wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (four years, $120 million) and right tackle Penei Sewell (four years, $112 million). Their offense became the first since the record-breaking 2013 AFC champion Denver Broncos to have four players record 10 or more touchdowns from scrimmage with running backs David Montgomery (13) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 as a rookie), St. Brown (10) and tight end Sam LaPorta (10 as a rookie).
The Lions also invested heavily on defense in the offseason, signing defensive tackle D.J. Reader, a player 11.5% quarterback pressure rate was the third-highest in the NFL among players weighing 320 or more pounds last season (minimum 100 pass rushes), to a two-year, $22 million contract in free agency, and they sent a third-round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to add ex-Super Bowl starting cornerback Carlton Davis. They also drafted two corners -- Alabama All-American Terrion Arnold (24th overall pick) and Missouri's Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (61st overall pick) -- in the first two rounds to enhance the secondary. They will be fierce once again in 2024.
Green Bay's youth movement resulted in immediate dividends with a 2023 group that had an average age of 25 years and 114 days, becoming the youngest team to win a postseason game since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970.
The youth movement was powered by quarterback Jordan Love's ascendance in the second half of the season, following three years marinating on the bench behind Aaron Rodgers after being a first-round pick in 2020. Over his last 10 games from Week 11 through the postseason, Love's 23-3 touchdown to interception ratio and 112.1 passer rating led the NFL. His 32 regular-season touchdown passes ranked as the second-most in the NFL, and his 37 including the postseason rank as the third-most in a player's first season as a full-time starting quarterback, trailing only Patrick Mahomes' 53 in 2018 and Hall of Famer Kurt Warner's 49 in 1999. That's why they paid him the big bucks (a four-year, $220 million contract extension with an NFL-high $55 million-average-per-year salary). Another year with a pass-catching core made up of almost entirely first- and second-year players should lead to higher levels of production, plus the addition of 2022 rushing champion Josh Jacobs (four years, $48 million) should lead to a healthier running back rotation.
Defensively, swapping out the zone-heavy scheme of Joe Barry for the aggressive, man coverage-heavy scheme of new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley may be exactly what the Packers need to bring the Lombardi Trophy home. Signing the top safety in free agency in Xavier McKinney, Pro Football Focus' best safety in coverage (91.2 coverage grade), will also help what could be, at times, a leaky defensive backfield.
Tier 2: Fringe contenders (3)
Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams
The Dallas Cowboys roster became more top heavy and shallow in a "get it done with less offseason." However, their big three of quarterback Dak Prescott (the 2023 NFL passing touchdowns leader with 36), wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (the 2023 NFL receptions leader with 135) and edge rusher Micah Parsons (the 2023 NFL leader in quarterback pressures (103), quarterback pressure rate (21.8%) and pass-rush win rate (35.3%) is one of the best trios in football. Barring they can avoid another first-half mental block in the postseason like they did in their 48-32 NFC wild-card round collapse against the Packers, a game they trailed 27-0, they could make a run with the right playoff matchups.
In Philadelphia, the Eagles replaced their offensive coordinator (letting go of Brian Johnson and hiring Kellen Moore) and their defensive coordinator (firing Sean Desai and Matt Patricia and replacing them with Vic Fangio). Coach Nick Sirianni's retooled staff once again boasts one of the better rosters in football. Should Philly's offense play more like it in 2022 with running back Saquon Barkley (three years, $37.5 million signee in free agency) in the backfield alongside quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Eagles could make a deep playoff run. They're relying on untested youth at corner with 2023 fourth-round pick Kelee Ringo and rookies Quinyon Mitchell (22nd overall pick) and Cooper DeJean (40th overall pick) expected to play big roles, which will be something to monitor.
The Los Angeles Rams were excellent when their big four of quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were all on the field last season, going 6-2 while averaging 28.5 points per game and 398.9 total yards per game. Stafford threw 18 touchdowns to only three interceptions, and they averaged 6.8 yards per play with all four on the field in 2023, a figure that would be the third-highest by a team in the Super Bowl era for an entire season. Nacua was the big surprise, breaking the NFL rookie records for catches (105) and receiving yards (1,486) after being a fifth-round pick. Defensively, the Rams are attempting to replace the retired, future Hall of Fame defensive lineman Aaron Donald in the aggregate after drafting Florida State defensive linemen Jared Verse (19th overall) and Braden Fiske (39th overall) in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Tier 3: Happy to be here division winners (2)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons
It's been a long time since winning the NFC South resulted in a Super Bowl appearance. The 2016 Atlanta Falcons, led by NFL MVP quarterback Matt Ryan, are the last champion of that division to win the NFC. Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or rather the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, did win the Super Bowl in the 2020 season, but they did so as a wild card. That's all to highlight that the winner of this division typically hasn't factored into the NFC race in a meaningful way in a few years.
The Buccaneers doubled down on quarterback Baker Mayfield's 2023 resurgence, signing him to a three-year, $100 million deal, and they re-signed Mr. Tampa Bay, wide receiver Mike Evans, to a two-year, $41 million deal. They were only the fifth team in NFL history to win a playoff game after a 4-7 start last season, but the front office is banking on the back end of the season to become the standard and not an aberration.
The Atlanta Falcons have a real quarterback again for the first time post-Matt Ryan after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. However, Cousins turns 36 on Aug. 19 and he is coming off of a torn Achilles. Atlanta is banking on him returning to the form that powered him to eight consecutive seasons of 25 or more passing touchdowns prior to 2023. If he falters in the health department, they did draft 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall out of Washington.
Tier 4: Wild-card wilderness (5)
Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders
New Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, inherits one of the best wide receiver rooms for a top quarterback prospect ever: he is the first top-five pick quarterback to have multiple receivers coming off of 1,200-yard receiving seasons as a rookie with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Williams also has former Pac-12 rival Rome Odunze, college football's receiving yards leader (1,640), in his arsenal after Chicago selected him ninth overall out of Washington. Defensively, they hit their stride after the trade acquisition of Montez Sweat. The edge rusher became the first player in NFL history to lead multiple teams in sacks in a season (Washington and Chicago), and he joins PFF's highest-graded cornerback in Jaylon Johnson (90.8) for a full season. Their problem is simply being in the same division as the Packers and Lions, plus easing in a rookie QB, albeit a highly talented one.
The New Orleans Saints possessed a top 10-caliber defense in key situations by and large, ranking fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate allowed (34.5%) and takeaways (29), as well as in points allowed overall (19.2 PPG allowed, eighth-fewest in the NFL). The problem was they struggled to affect to quarterback with 34 sacks (fourth-lowest in the NFL) and their 72 quarterbacks hits were tied for the third-fewest in the league. New quarterback Derek Carr finished the season hot with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in the team's last five games, four of which were wins, but it was against a soft schedule. Can he be consistent for a full season along with pass rush on the other side of the ball?
The Seattle Seahawks have an incredibly talented offense with quarterback Geno Smith, running back Kenneth Walker III and wide receivers DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Can new coach Mike Macdonald take a Seahawks defense that allowed the most total yards per game (366.5) and rushing yards per game (144.3) since 2022 and immediately coach them into competency? There is hope after he coordinated the first defense ever to lead the NFL in scoring defense (16.5), sacks (60) and takeaways (31, tied with the New York Giants) with the Baltimore Ravens last season. A lot will be asked out of 16th overall pick defensive tackle Byron Murphy II as a rookie.
The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024 season with questions at quarterback with journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy vying for their starting quarterback job. Their offensive ecosystem of 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, wide receiver Jordan Addison, tight end T.J. Hockenson and newly acquired running back Aaron Jones (one-year, $7 million in free agency after asking for his release from the Packers) with coach Kevin O'Connell calling the plays would seem to be enough. But will it?
The Washington Commanders could stumble into contention for a wild-card spot if the team's free agency spending spree on both sides of the ball is enough to aide 2024 second overall pick quarterback Jayden Daniels into a smooth NFL transition. Coach Dan Quinn's defenses became a top-five unit upon his arrival in Dallas back in 2021.
Tier 5: How many days until the 2025 NFL Draft? (3)
New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers
The New York Giants are stuck in mediocrity with Daniel Jones returning as their starting quarterback after they failed to trade up from the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Arizona Cardinals should have a better offense with a healthy Kyler Murray and 2024 fourth overall pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but they still lack talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Carolina Panthers 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young had one of the worst rookie seasons in recent memory. Will the Panthers' offseason offensive upgrades -- wide receiver Diontae Johnson, wide receiver Xavier Legette, tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, running back Jonathon Brooks, guard Robert Hunt and guard Damien Lewis -- be enough for him to be a competent NFL quarterback at his size (5-foot-10, 204 pounds)?