The Kansas City Chiefs have a history of acquiring receivers at the trade deadline. Two years ago, the team sent a third- and a sixth-round pick to the Giants for Kadarius Toney. Last year, Kansas City reacquired Mecole Hardman from the Jets for a sixth-round pick. After both of those trades, both Toney and Hardman made key plays in the Super Bowl to help the Chiefs lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Those moves show that coach Andy Reid, general manager Brett Veach and the Kansas City brass are not afraid to add a key receiver at the trade deadline. And this year the two-time defending Super Bowl champions are more desperate to bring in a pass catcher than at any point in Reid's tenure after losing their top two receivers, Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice, to injury. Brown has not played this year with a shoulder injury and will reportedly miss the entire season.
Meanwhile Rice is a potentially massive loss. He leads the team in receptions (24), targets (29), receiving yards (288) and receiving touchdowns (two) and drew a target on 33.7% of the team's pass attempts, the second-largest share in the NFL. But he is out for at least this week's game against the Saints—and potentially much longer—with a knee injury.
Multiple receivers—including DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Davante Adams—have been floated as possible targets for the Chiefs before the trade deadline on Nov. 5, but how much would each receiver help Kansas City? And which receiver would help the most? The SportsLine Projection Model has crunched the numbers and has the answers.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says that right now the Chiefs (4-0) have just the fourth best chance to win the Super Bowl, at 13.8%, despite being one of just two undefeated teams in the league. But if Rice were to miss the rest of the season (the team has said it should know more about his injury on Monday) and Kansas City does not add a receiver, the Chiefs would have just an 10.9% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the model.
"And if their quarterback was anyone other than Patrick Mahomes, they'd probably be at 4%," says Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model.
The receiver who could help Kansas City the most is Adams, the three-time first-team All-Pro currently with the Raiders. According to the model, the Chiefs' chance to win the Super Bowl would jump from 13.8% to 17.8% with Adams. That would be the highest percentage in the league.
But while Las Vegas has reportedly put Adams on the trading block, the Raiders are not expected to deal him to an AFC West rival like Kansas City.
Cooper would be the team's next-best option among receivers on the trading block, according to the model. The five-time Pro Bowler currently with the Browns would give the Chiefs a 13.7% chance of of winning the Super Bowl, about the same chance they'd have with a healthy Rice.
The model is counting on Cooper's tendency to start strongly with new teams. In 2018, he had just 22 receptions for 280 yards and one touchdown in six games with the Raiders. But after a midseason trade to the Cowboys, he had 53 receptions for 725 yards and six touchdowns in nine games. And last season, which was his first in Cleveland, he had 78 receptions for 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns.
"Every time he goes somewhere fresh, he's a monster," Oh says.
As for Hopkins, adding the Titans wideout would only help Kansas City if Rice were to miss the rest of the season. Hopkins has just 10 receptions for 121 yards and one touchdown this year. He would give the Chiefs a 13.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is actually less than their chances without him. However, if Rice were to miss the rest of the year, Hopkins would increase the team's chances to threepeat by 2.2%.
"Hopkins is too past his prime to fully replace Rice, but the Chiefs would be vastly better with him if Rice were to miss the season," Oh says.
As for Week 5, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Chiefs and Saints on Monday night. However, that game isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 5. You can find those top-tier Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.
