On Friday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs will make a franchise-altering decision with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. Barring a shocker, that selection will be Penn State winger Gavin McKenna, and the Leafs can only hope he follows in the footsteps of other No. 1 picks in the 21st century.
For the most part, the consensus draft boards have gotten it right when it comes to the top prospect in each draft since 2000, although there have been a few notable selections. Players like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid have exceeded the hype they received going into their respective drafts.
More recently, Macklin Celebrini and Matthew Schaefer have delivered on the expectations of a No. 1 overall pick, even if they don't have long track records. Can McKenna make it three straight instant superstars at the top of the draft?
As we get set to watch McKenna walk across the stage in Buffalo, let's take a look back on how each No. 1 pick in the 21st century has panned out. We included McKenna in the mix to provide a baseline of what fans could expect from him as a rookie in 2026-27, even if we won't know his true ceiling until he hits the ice.
27. Nail Yakupov | C | Oilers (2012)
Let's give NHL general managers some credit. It's rare to find a complete whiff at No. 1 overall, but this was one of them. Yakupov played just 350 career games, totaling 62 goals and 74 assists. He did, however, give us one of the most preposterous celebrations in a regular-season game of all-time. For that, he will be remembered forever.
26. Rick DiPietro | G | Islanders (2000)
There's a reason you rarely see goaltenders get drafted this early. That position is incredibly volatile, and it's tough to project exactly how goalies will develop. DiPietro was certainly a cautionary tale in that regard. The Islanders selected DiPietro after a dominant freshman season at Boston University, but his career never really got off the ground due to injuries and poor performance. DiPietro won just 130 games in 318 appearances before retiring.
25. Owen Power | D | Sabres (2021)
It's very easy to see why Power went No. 1 overall in 2021. His combination of size (6-foot-6) and mobility was -- and is -- incredibly tantalizing. Still, Power hasn't ascended to the status of a top-pairing defenseman, let alone a true No. 1 option. There's hope that it can still happen. Just look at Power's teammate, Rasmus Dahlin, who took a few seasons to hit his stride. For now, though, Power hasn't quite lived up to the hype.
24. Erik Johnson | D | Blues (2006)
Johnson had a long and successful career, but he never justified the Blues selecting him at No. 1 overall in 2006, especially with future Hall of Famer Jonathan Toews going just two picks later. St. Louis traded Johnson to Colorado just three seasons into his tenure with the Blues. Johnson was a reliable defender who played over 1,000 games, and he won a Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2022.
23. Alexis Lafreniere | RW | Rangers (2020)
Things just haven't panned out for Lafreniere, who has yet to top 57 points in six seasons, after being considered the top prospect in 2020. Lafreniere is a productive second-line winger, but that's not what the Rangers were hoping for, and his name has come up in trade rumors over the last year. Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond, Jake Sanderson, Anton Lundell and Seth Jarvis all came off the board in that first round.
22. Juraj Slafkovsky | RW | Canadiens (2022)
When Slafkovsky was struggling to find his footing in the NHL earlier in his career, it was easy to forget how young he was. Following a breakout season, the 22-year-old Slafkovsky is back on track to become what the Canadiens expected when they selected him at No. 1 overall. The young Slovakian potted 30 goals and added 43 assists in 82 games, and he was part of a dynamite top line in Montreal. Now, the goal for Slafkovsky is stringing a couple of great seasons together.
21. Gavin McKenna | C | Maple Leafs (2026)
This feels like a fair baseline for McKenna, at least to start. Last season, he overcame a slow start at Penn State and finished with 15 goals and 36 assists in 35 games. As is the case with many rookie forwards, McKenna will have some work to do on his game without the puck, but there's no doubt that he can make magic happen when the puck is on his stick. He should make all the misery Toronto endured throughout the 2025-26 season worth it.
20. Aaron Ekblad | D | Panthers (2014)
Ekblad moved around quite a bit as I was writing this list because -- while he hasn't necessarily played up to the level of a No. 1 pick -- he was a defensive stalwart for a team that won back-to-back Stanley Cups. The issue for Ekblad is that he hasn't ever really been a true star defenseman, which is what you're looking for at the top of the draft. That said, he's been a steady presence for Florida, and the team eventually got the end resulted it desired with a couple championships.
19. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | LW | Oilers (2011)
He hasn't played up to the level of a No. 1 pick, but Nugent-Hopkins has been a staple in Edmonton's top six for a long time. The result of that longevity is 1,031 games and 804 points -- which includes a 104-point campaign in 2022-23. Judging him by the standards placed on a No. 1 pick, Nugent-Hopkins has underwhelmed, but he's far from a bust.
18. Connor Bedard | C | Blackhawks (2023)
After posting absurd numbers at the junior level, Bedard was thought to be the next big superstar, but that hasn't come to fruition yet. Bedard has posted solid offensive numbers, but his defense has been a problem, and he's really struggled at the faceoff dot. There's still plenty of time for Bedard, 20, to develop into a true superstar, but Chicago needs to give him adequate help on the wing.
17. Taylor Hall | RW | Oilers (2010)
Hall's journey has been a wild one. His career got off to a very good -- but not great -- start with the Oilers. Then he was traded to the Devils. His first year in New Jersey was something of a disappointment, but he rebounded to win the Hart Trophy in 2017-18. That was followed by declining performance in brief stints with the Sabres, Coyotes and Bruins. By the time he was with the Chicago Blackhawks, it looked as though Hall's career was coming to an end. After being a throw-in to the Hurricanes in a three-way deal for Mikko Rantanen, Hall made a resurgence and nearly won the Conn Smythe Trophy while helping Carolina win the Cup in 2026.
16. Rick Nash | LW | Blue Jackets (2002)
Unfortunately for Nash, he played on one of the NHL's worst teams for the first decade of his career. True superstars are able to transcend the state of a team, and Nash wasn't quite able to do that. Still, he was one of just a handful of stars to emerge from a weak 2002 draft class, and the Blue Jackets were right to select Nash at No. 1. Nash won the Rocket Richard Trophy in his second season with 41 goals, but he was only able to top that number once in his career.
15. Nico Hischier | C | Devils (2017)
On the heels of Connor McDavid in 2015 and Auston Matthews in 2016, Hischier didn't garner as much buzz, but he's developed into a two-way stud at center. Not only is Hischier capable of hitting 30 goals every year, but he's also a perennial Selke Trophy candidate. Hischier may be more than halfway down the rankings, but New Jersey shouldn't be disappointed with its selection atop the 2017 draft.
14. Ilya Kovalchuk | LW | Thrashers (2001)
At his peak, Kovalchuk was one of the most exciting players in the league, and it's a shame he was stuck on the Atlanta Thrashers for most of it. From 2001 to 2012, Kovalchuk led the NHL with 406 goals. His puck skills were elite, and his quick release was among the filthiest in the league. If Kovalchuk had a bit more talent around him early in his career -- and if he didn't take a five-season hiatus to play in the KHL in his latter years -- his trophy case would have a lot less room.
13. John Tavares | C | Islanders (2009)
The more I wrote, the further I dropped Tavares. There's no question that Tavares has displayed incredible longevity. Tavares has played 1,266 games in his career and has been a high-impact player for 17 consecutive seasons. The issue for Tavares is that, while he's been a strong two-way player for most of his career, he lacks individual awards and Stanley Cup rings. In fact, he's never even been to the conference finals. Tavares isn't the type of No. 1 pick who was able to put an entire franchise on his back.
12. Rasmus Dahlin | D | Sabres (2018)
Somewhat of a late bloomer, Dahlin's career has really taken off over the last few seasons, and he was a Norris Trophy finalist in 2025-26. Dahlin weathered the storm on some putrid Sabres teams early in his career, and he's evolved into one of the game's best two-way defensemen while leading Buffalo to its first playoff appearance since 2011. I expect Dahlin to be in the Norris Trophy conversation annually for at least the next five years as his star continues to rise.
11. Jack Hughes | C | Devils (2019)
Hughes has the talent to be considerably higher on this list, but durability concerns keep him down at No. 10. He's missed at least 20 games in each of the last three seasons, but Hughes has been very productive when healthy. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Hughes is tied for 10th in the NHL with 1.21 points per game. The last time he played anything resembling a full season was in 2022-23, when he posted 99 points and finished eighth in Hart Trophy voting. Can he stay on the ice over the next few years?
10. Marc-Andre Fleury | G | Penguins (2003)
Fleury was a difficult player to place on this list for a couple of reasons. For starters, evaluating goalies is tougher than evaluating skaters because so many external factors affect the final numbers. Secondly, Fleury endured ups and downs in his career. In 2008 and 2009, when the Penguins made back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, Fleury was outstanding. He was a key reason Pittsburgh lifted the Cup in 2009, but he wasn't in goal when the team won its next two championships in 2016 and 2017. But Fleury also had a second act of his career with the Vegas Golden Knights, where he backstopped the team to a Final and won a Vezina Trophy. For all the peaks and valleys, Fleury ranks second all-time in games played (1,051) and wins (575).
9. Matthew Schaefer | D | Islanders (2025)
Maybe I'm jumping the gun, but I don't care. Schaefer was just that good as a rookie in 2025-26. He entered a pretty undesirable environment and thrived right out of the gate. At just 18 years old, Schaefer tallied 23 goals and 59 points from the blue line while posting solid five-on-five metrics. Schaefer is on the fast track to superstardom, and there's at least one Norris Trophy in his future.
8. Macklin Celebrini | C | Sharks (2024)
If you thought putting Schaefer in the top 10 was premature, you might think the same about putting Celebrini in the top eight, but there is no doubt about his star power anymore. Like most of the players ahead of him on this list, Celebrini has completely flipped the outlook of a franchise that was dead in the water when he arrived. Last season, Celebrini tallied 115 points as a 19-year-old, and that number was nearly double his next closest teammate. Did I mention he also led the Olympics with six goals?
7. Auston Matthews | C | Maple Leafs (2016)
Matthews is the only player on track to give Alex Ovechkin a run for his money on the all-time goals list. No player has more goals than Matthews' 428 since he made his NHL debut in 2016, but he's not a one-trick pony. The most underrated part of Matthews' game is his defensive progression throughout his career, and he was named a Selke Trophy finalist in 2024. Although he now has a gold medal on his mantle, Matthews still lacks a Stanley Cup -- or even a conference finals berth. If he can put together a breakthrough postseason, Matthews would jump a spot or two on this list.
6. Patrick Kane | RW | Blackhawks (2007)
As things stand today, Kane is the greatest American hockey player ever. Few players in this century can rival Kane's ability to put the puck on a string and freeze opponents at will, and that quality has made him one of the best playmakers of his generation. Before Kane arrived, Chicago spent a decade as an also-ran, but that changed quickly with No. 88 in the fold. With Kane leading the way, the Blackhawks won three Stanley Cups in six seasons from 2010-15, and he captured a Conn Smythe Trophy in the process.
5. Steven Stamkos | C | Lightning (2008)
He's been overshadowed by Ovechkin for most of his career, but Stamkos belongs in the conversation as one of the best scorers in league history. Since he entered the NHL in 2008-09, Stamkos ranks second behind Ovechkin with 624 goals, and he just tallied 42 at the age of 35. Getting to 700 career goals certainly isn't out of the question for Stamkos. In addition to the scoring, Stamkos captained the Tampa Bay Lightning as they made four Stanley Cup Final appearances -- and won two championships -- from 2015-22.
4. Nathan MacKinnon | C | Avalanche (2013)
Not every No. 1 overall pick shoots to stardom immediately. MacKinnon is a great example of that. Through his first four seasons, MacKinnon profiled as a very good player, but he hadn't lived up to the pre-draft expectations. Then, in 2017-18, something clicked and MacKinnon's career launched into the stratosphere. Since that year, MacKinnon has piled up 936 points, which ranks second in the NHL over that span. Plus, he's added a Stanley Cup, a Hart Trophy and a Rocket Richard Trophy to his resume.
3. Alexander Ovechkin | LW | Capitals (2004)
Ovechkin is the greatest goal-scorer in NHL history, and he's the only player ever to top 900 career goals. Ovechkin also holds the record for most Rocket Richard Trophy wins with nine. Since the award was first handed out in 1998-99, no other player has more than three. For years, the biggest knocks on Ovechkin were his lack of defense and his inability to win the Stanley Cup. The former prevents him from being any higher on the list. The latter was resolved in 2018, when he led the Capitals to their first Cup while leading the playoffs in goals (15) and winning the Conn Smythe Trophy.
2. Connor McDavid | C | Oilers (2015)
McDavid is the most talented player on this list. His combination of speed, skill, vision and hockey IQ is unmatched by anyone else in the 21st century. In terms of his production, the numbers are off the charts. McDavid is on pace to hit 1,628 points by the time he plays his 1,000th game. The only hole in McDavid's resume is, admittedly, a big one. He still hasn't won the Stanley Cup, but that's no fault of his own. McDavid has 156 points in 102 career playoff games, and he became the sixth player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as a member of the losing team in 2024. McDavid will eventually break through for a championship, but for now, the wait continues.
1. Sidney Crosby | C | Penguins (2005)
When a player gets labeled as a "generational" prospect, this is what you expect. A three-time Stanley Cup champion and two-time Olympic gold medalist, Crosby almost single-handedly reversed the fortunes of a moribund franchise in Pittsburgh. On top of that, Crosby played a major role -- along with Ovechkin -- in reviving the NHL following the 2004-05 lockout. His trophy case features the Hart Trophy (2x), Conn Smythe Trophy (2x), Rocket Richard Trophy (2x) and Art Ross Trophy (2x). Crosby has been an elite all-around player for more than two decades now, and he's easily a top-10 player in NHL history.
