The 2024 Paris Olympics have arrived and the men's basketball tournament is set to kick off Saturday, when the United States will begin its quest for a fifth straight gold medal. The Americans are a heavy favorite, but this is a deep field and Team USA didn't exactly cruise through its exhibition schedule.
This is because pure talent is not the only, or, at times, even the biggest factor in international play. It is with this idea in mind that we have ranked the top 30 players in this year's Olympic field. This ranking reflects the value (projected importance/impact) of each player in this particular tournament, factoring in role and the FIBA rules and style, as opposed to who is simply the best or most talented player in a vacuum.
As an example: Jrue Holiday is not a better player than Jayson Tatum or Kevin Durant, but he ranks higher on this list than both of them because of his unique value on an American team that is heavily outfitted with relatively redundant superstars. Dennis Schroder is not a better player than Devin Booker, not even close, but Booker, a role player for the United States who is not likely to have the kind of impact in these games that he does in the NBA, didn't even make the top 30 while Schroder comes in top-10 as the engine for Germany.
Keep this weighted value in mind as you go through this list. It does not mean that Joel Embiid or Tyrese Haliburton is not a top 30 basketball player. It just means their importance in Paris isn't what it is in the NBA because of the star power around them. Got it? Good. Here we go...
1. Nikola Jokic, Serbia
Best player in the world on a team without any other NBA All-Stars. There will be rankings primed for spirited debate on this list. This shouldn't be one of them.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece
Greece isn't likely to get out of the group stage, where the team is pooled against two legit medal contenders in Australia and Canada as well as a Spanish team that is always tough. But Antetokounmpo getting his home country back into the Olympics -- knocking out Luka Doncic's Slovenia along the way -- for the first time since 2008 is a major victory in itself.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada
As far as medal-contending teams are concerned, only Jokic carries a heavier individual burden than SGA, who is the driver of a Canada squad that has the goods to take out anyone in a given matchup. Probably the best dribble penetrator in the world, SGA should be penciled in for a minimum of 20ish points and a ton of kick-out assists as defenses pack the paint due to the fact that FIBA doesn't have a three-second rule.
4. LeBron James, United States
LeBron, at 39 years old, still gets top American billing. With so much talent on the U.S. roster, James, who led the team in points and assists through the exhibition schedule, is the clearest connector and thus, arguably, the most uniquely important player across all lineups.
Also, he remains a virtually unstoppable scorer when he puts his head down, either as a transition freight train or when he backs it out in the half-court and barrels downhill. As we witnessed during the closing stretch of Team USA's narrow victory over Germany in the final Olympic tune-up, when he scored the team's final 11 points, James still has the instinct and ability to take matters into his own hands when necessary.
5. Anthony Davis, United States
Whether he replaces Joel Embiid in the starting lineup or not, Davis will end up being the most important defender for the Americans. He might be the most important player, period; he was the best player in the tune-up games, collecting more blocked shots than the rest of the team combined.
Given the vast overlap of American skillsets, elite as they are, it will be those offering the most unique talents that rise up the ladder of consequence. We already talked about LeBron's orchestration. We'll get to Kevin Durant's individual scoring. As for Davis, nobody possesses his combination of size and defensive mobility, which takes on even greater value in FIBA play where the ball can be taken right off the rim.
6. Dennis Schroder, Germany
The reigning World Cup MVP, Schroder is an international superstar. He means more to his team than just about anyone in this tournament. He's a Patty Mills type in that he's not good enough to be the go-to guy on an NBA roster, but put him on his national team and turn his light florescent green and he can dominate better players on better teams. Germany should be in the running for a medal and Schroder is the guy who carry them against the top teams.
7. Victor Wembanyama, France
One half of France's twin-tower combo alongside Rudy Gobert, Wemanyama is going to do everything for the French. By the end of this tournament he will likely lead the team in most categories, including assists as we've seen him rapidly develop as a playmaker by virtue of the wide-eyed attention he garners. This is going to be the latest glimpse of what is likely to be, perhaps sooner than later, the world's next premier player.
8. Stephen Curry, United States
In keeping with the theme of skill scarcity, Curry's shooting, and perhaps more importantly his commitment to improvisational movement as a shot hunter, demands a defensive paranoia that no other player, American or otherwise, can replicate. Curry is entirely unique, and on a team that isn't likely to match its opponents' 3-point volume (they were just out-attempted 43-17 by Germany), he becomes all the more vital.
9. Jamal Murray, Canada
Murray has to play huge for the Canadians to have a shot at a medal, and he certainly has the ability to do so. He has been among the NBA's most lethal playoff scorers and has an obvious instinct to seize for big-stage opportunities. Murray is at his best when he can be a superstar scorer without actually qualifying as his team's superstar. He has that luxury with the Nuggets, and he'll have that luxury with team Canada as Gilgeous-Alexander commands the most attention. Murray should feast off catch-and-shoots and in secondary creation against closeouts.
10. Rudy Gobert, France
Gobert can dominate a FIBA game defensively even more than an NBA game without the three-second rule. He can camp in the paint and alter all variety of shots. He and Wembanyama could end up making interior scoring more trouble than it's worth vs. France. If so, the Americans might need to make a lot of jumpers if this matchup happens. Gobert is also probably the best offensive rebounder in the tournament. That can be a significant swing factor in a potential matchup against the U.S. when France wouldn't have as many individual matchups to exploit.
11. Jrue Holiday, United States
Again, in a vacuum, Holiday is probably not a top-10 player in this tournament, but he is among the most uniquely equipped to impose his particular will. Nobody in these Olympics can provide the kind of point-of-attack pressure that Holiday brings (Derrick White comes closest, and we'll get to him). If Holiday doesn't score a single point (he will actually score more than you think as defenses have to pick their poison and leaving Holiday just makes mathematical sense), he could, and likely will, still end up qualifying as one of the most impactful players across all teams with his defensive disruption and timely cutting.
12. Franz Wagner, Germany
Wagner is right there with Schroder as the most important German. He can be a serious defender and has the ability to consistently beat his man off the dribble. If the 3-point shot is falling, which is a big if, he has the game to turn Germany into a scary matchup for even the Americans.
13. Josh Giddey, Australia
Giddey logged 20 points, eight assists and six rebounds in Australia's friendly win over France, and that kind of production should continue in Paris. Giddey, a ball-pusher and visionary with a knack for breaching the paint without elite speed, needs the ball in his hands to be at his best. He didn't have that opportunity with the Thunder. He'll get it in Chicago, and he'll have it with Australia in Paris, where Giddey's full range of talents will be on display.
14. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia
Bogdanovic needs 56 points in Paris to overtake Milos Teodosic as Serbia's all-time leading Olympic scorer. He had 17 on 5-of-5 3-point shooting in Serbia's win over Greece in the final friendly game. The epitome of sub-All-Star NBA player who can turn into a god for his home country, Bogdanovic is about as flammable a shooter as there is in this tournament and should get plenty of open looks courtesy of Jokic. He is the second-best player in a team with a legit medal shot. He has a lot on his shoulders.
15. Patty Mills, Australia
FIBA Patty, who led Australia to a bronze medal at the 2021 Games in Tokyo, is getting a little long in the tooth at 35 years old, but he's still an electric scorer in the international environment and Australia knows exactly how to maximize him with perhaps the highest degree of roster continuity in the tournament. Mills put up 24 points in 29 minutes in Australia's tune-up win over France. He averaged 21.7 PPG in the 2021 Olympics and 19 PPG in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. He's still spry in creating space off the dribble, and with the greenest of lights to fire away from any spot at any time, he's going to do a lot of damage in Paris.
16. Dillon Brooks, Canada
Brooks is a good NBA player despite his flaws, but in the FIBA game where his, shall we say, enthusiastic shooting is actually a necessity as arguably Canada's third-most flammable scorer, he is a threat to go for 25-plus in any game while playing stout defense. He means more to Canada than, say, Booker does to the U.S., and he will likely have a more consistently significant impact on this tournament. Brooks' passion to thrive in a me-against-the-world state is perfect for this setting.
17. Kevin Durant, United States
The only reason Durant is this low is because we don't know his status for the opener or how healthy he'll be throughout at least the early parts of the tournament. If he's full strength, he's the most reliable and this indispensable scorer the Americans can put on the court.
Durant, who is looking to become the first male athlete to win four gold medals in a team sport, is likely to come off the bench if he does play in the opener. It won't matter. He's be ready to cook right away, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was immediately necessary as the Americans' potentially struggle early to generate collective quality looks. Durant can just do it himself.
Whether it's against Serbia or down the road, you can bet there will be stretches in this tournament where the U.S., even with its embarrassment of scoring riches, will struggle to find its half-court flow, and Durant will be the guy they turn to for buckets. I actually don't think the Americans, for all their talent, can win the gold without Durant eventually buoying them through some turbulent waters.
18. Evan Fournier, France
Everyone knows about France's twin-tower big men in Wembanyama and Gobert, but if the French are going to win a medal, they are going to need to hold their own in the backcourt. Veteran point guard Nando de Colo needs to play big, but Fournier, another example of a sub-NBA-All-Star who can score with anyone in the world on a given night, is the guy who can light up the scoreboard. If France ends up playing the Americans in the knockout stage, Fournier, for one night, can shoot the home country into an upset.
19. RJ Barrett, Canada
Barrett went for 21 points in Canada's friendly win over France, combining with SGA to tally more than half of Canada's offensive output. He's a forceful driver and can shoot it off the catch. When SGA is off the floor, Barrett will get more control of the ball, but even with SGA and Murray he's a grab-and-go rebounder who can lead breaks for a Canada team that wants to get up and down.
20. Bam Adebayo, United States
Perhaps the most underappreciated NBA star, Adebayo is similarly easy to forget about on a U.S. team filled with bigger names. That's a mistake. Adebayo is a slight notch below Davis in terms of his defensive mobility and overall importance to an American team with plenty of guys who can score. He'll also show the world what Heat fans already know: He's a hell of an offensive hub and will do work as a mid-post scorer. With Adebayo and Davis on the second unit together, good luck creating any kind of consistent offense.
21. Santi Aldama, Spain
A solid rotational player for the Memphis Grizzlies, Aldama probably has to play like a star for Spain to have a shot to advance out of the group stage. He has the ability. At 6-foot-11, he has a sweet 3-point stroke. Spain will probably run most of its offense through Aldama and fellow big man and former NBA player Willy Hernangomez. The two of them led Spain in both scoring and rebounding during the qualifying tournament.
22. Lu Dort, Canada
Elite scorers populate just about every roster in this tournament, but there are only a handful of defenders capable of combatting these killers one on one. Dort, who is right there with Holiday as the best perimeter defenders in this tournament, is one of them, and he's a capable 3-point shooter in his own right. If Canada is going to make a medal run, Dort is going to have to do some heavy lifting.
23. Jose Alvarado, Puerto Rico
If anyone is going to lead an underdog like Puerto Rico to advance out of a group that includes the United States and Serbia, it is the ultimate underdog in Alvarado. It's not likely to happen, but you won't be able to take your eyes off Alvarado, a scrapper in the NBA who can be a star on the FIBA stage, put up 29 points against Italy and 23 against Lithuania en route to being named MVP of Puerto Rico's qualifying tournament.
24. Anthony Edwards, United States
If Edwards' bold declaration that he's the Americans' No. 1 scoring option comes to fruition, which is a possibility, this ranking will look woefully low in hindsight. He has been a consistent and aggressive scorer through the exhibitions, and he'll likely have at least a few star stretches where he takes over a quarter on his own. The Americans' best athlete, a forceful downhill creator and a strong wing defender, Edwards is my bet to crack the starting lineup alongside James, Curry, Holiday and Joel Embiid.
25. Jayson Tatum, United States
Take each of Tatum's skills on their own, and they're all duplicated by someone, if not multiple guys, on the American roster. But taken as a total package, as you would a decathlete, Tatum arguably becomes America's most comprehensive weapon. He can generate his own shot or shoot off the catch. He can post up or initiate pick-and-roll. He can create, defend and rebound. He can start or come off the bench. The most over-qualified gap-filler in this tournament, Tatum is an absolute luxury who can, and will, toggle between supporting and sustaining the American attack at various points in Paris.
26. Nic Batum, France
Batum is so solid and experienced, and as we talked about with Fournier, France is going to need all the perimeter juice it can get in support of Wembanyama and Gobert. Batum might be getting up there in age (35), but he'll connect this France team and is still more than capable of having a big game at the right time, as he did for the Sixers with 16 points and three 3-pointers when they nearly pushed the Knicks to Game 7 in the first round of this year's playoffs.
27. Kelly Olynyk, Canada
Olynyk, who has been playing with the Canadian national team since 2010, is a perfect FIBA big who can stretch the floor and battle inside. Canada is pretty flush with quality guards in SGA, Murray and Andrew Nembhard, who we'll get to shortly, but the 6-foot-11 Olynyk, along with Trey Lyles and Dwight Powell, anchors a group of "smaller" bigs that will have to punch above their weight to contend with the best teams. Olynyk and Lyles punishing defenses who are trying to pack the paint against SGA by hitting consistent 3-pointers will be a vital part of Canada's attack.
28. Derrick White, United States
Steve Kerr went with White over Tyrese Halliburton to captain the second unit against Germany, and the reason is obvious: Defense. There are plenty of offensive giants on the U.S. roster, but we saw the kind of impact White can have with his ball pressure throughout the playoffs with the Celtics, and he's a prime candidate to hit backbreaking shots against opponents forced to sell out on the Americans' many superstar scorers.
29. Dyson Daniels, Australia
A definitional X-factor, Daniels has gone from an end-of-the-bench guy to a crucial cog for the Aussies. In Australia's friendly win over France he finished with 14 points, five assists and five steals while converting the game-winning reverse layup off an inbound cut. Daniels is one of the reasons some people think the Hawks got good value for Dejounte Murray. He's a beast defensively (particularly at the point of attack but also as a capable switcher), a slippery cutter, and the shorter 3-point line potentially assigns him a greater threat rating than he commands in the NBA. A player like Daniels breaking out in this tournament could be the key to Australia medaling.
30. Andrew Nembhard, Canada
Nembhard just got a three-year, $59 million deal from the Pacers. He was probably Indiana's best player in the conference finals against Boston, going for 56 points over the final two games and shooting 48% from deep for the series, and I have a sneaking suspicion he's going to be huge for Canada in these Olympics, too. This guy can flat out score and he's a pest of an on-ball defender.
If you imagine a matchup between the Canadians and the United States, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray would have to play like the stars they are to keep that game tight, but for Canada to actually get over the hump and win a game like that, someone else, perhaps someone less expected, would likely need to emerge with a big-time performance. Nembhard has all the makings of being that kind of player.
USA's biggest wild cards
- Joel Embiid: Embiid could end up being a major part of an American triumph, or he could fade to the background as an pseudo starter who cedes minutes to Davis when it really matters. I would lean toward the latter, but Embiid's size would be particularly helpful in a potential matchup with France, and Davis also hasn't fared so well against Jokic (not that anyone really does). Bottom line: Embiid almost certainly won't have the same effect on this tournament that he does in the NBA. There are a couple reasons for that. The FIBA game is about ball movement and fluid half-court offense; Embiid, though he is capable as a two-man hub and will draw double teams, pounding the ball down in the post is not going to be a featured action for the Americans and he's not going to live on the free-throw line. Also, his defensive mobility is lacking, which is where Davis and Bam Adebayo offer more value. He's probably not an every-game necessity, but he could be huge in the ones that matter. We'll see.
- Devin Booker: Superstar in the NBA, rotation guy in the Olympics. Put Booker on team Canada and he goes ballistic as a second option, but for the Americans his value will be mostly on the margins as a better defender and creator than you realize. He'll make shots, but he's not Curry. He'll score one-on-one, but he's not Durant. Booker is just a good all-around player for the U.S., but even through that lens he's not quite Tatum. Having said that, Booker can get as hot as anyone. He's a miniature Durant in the midrange, and it's certainly not impossible that he falls into a go-to role if the Americans are stuck in the mud at some point and he puts his foot on the gas. Like Embiid, I could see Booker just being a back-of-the rotation guy who has a few short scoring surges here and there, or I could see him playing a far bigger role based on circumstance. The fact that he doesn't have to play a big role is why he doesn't land in the top 30.
USA's biggest sleeper
- Tyrese Haliburton: It looks like Derrick White is going to take some of Haliburton's time, if not most of it. He could easily fall to the end of the U.S. bench. As such, he's not being talked about at all as a vital part of the American team. But don't rule out Haliburton as a major contributor for the Americans by the time this thing is over. Perfectly suited for the up-tempo, creative FIBA game, it's not hard to see Hali getting a few opportunities and forcing Steve Kerr to keep him on the floor by pushing pace, or getting hot from 3, or just connecting what could be, at times, a disjointed U.S. offense. Once he's on the court, he's always a threat to take over a game, especially as all of the defensive attention will be directed elsewhere.
Also keep an eye on...
Dante Exum (Australia), Rui Hachimura (Japan), Moe Wagner (Germany), Willy Hermangomez (Spain), Bilal Coulibaly (France), Nikola Jovic (Serbia), Yuta Watanabe (Japan)
