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I touched on some early NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year betting trends in this space last week and figured I was done talking about rookies at least until this summer. But FanDuel has put up odds regarding Week 1 starting quarterbacks for a handful of clubs, and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is not the favored guy to take that first snap for the Las Vegas Raiders. So now I have to jump back in on Mendoza, the +380 second-favorite for OROY at FanDuel.

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The past six quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall -- Cam Ward (Titans), Caleb Williams (Bears), Bryce Young (Panthers), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals) -- all started Week 1. The last one who didn't was Baker Mayfield in 2018 with the Browns, but he got his first start in Week 3. Prior to Mayfield, the last top QB pick to not get a Week 1 call was Jared Goff in 2016 with the Rams. He didn't get his first start until Week 11.

The last time the Raiders picked a QB at No. 1 overall was JaMarcus Russell in 2007. He only started a meaningless finale as a rookie (saw a bit of action in three other games) and turned into a mega-bust. The last time no rookie quarterback started Week 1 in the league was 2022, when Kenny Pickett was the lone QB first-round pick, going to Pittsburgh.

This year's class isn't considered as bad as that 2022 one (but not far off), so if Mendoza doesn't start Week 1, then surely no rookie QB will be, considering that Ty Simpson was the only other first-round pick by the Rams, and he'll be sitting behind Matthew Stafford.

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FanDuel lists free-agent addition Kirk Cousins as the -200 favorite to start Week 1, with Mendoza at +168 and any other quarterback at +2000 – presumably meaning Aidan O'Connell. Cousins was signed on a one-year, $20 million deal to clearly be the bridge to Mendoza, and new coach Klint Kubiak had said he wanted to add a veteran quarterback to the roster.

For what it's worth, GM John Spytek has said "the best man will play" but also mentioned during the NFL Combine that he's "not necessarily in favor of running [a rookie QB] out there right away." 

And Kubiak said much the same not long after: "Ideally you don't want him to start from Day 1. You'd love for him to learn behind somebody. That's a perfect world. It doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they have to play from Day 1, and it's our job as a coach to get them ready to go. I think it does help the player, though, if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show."

The NFL schedule will be released next week, and I don't think it matters the actual Las Vegas opponent on increasing or decreasing the likelihood of it being Mendoza in the opener. The reigning Heisman winner might have a bit of a learning curve coming from an RPO offense to a pro-style system. But if the Raiders have an early bye like in Week 5, perhaps that encourages them to start with Cousins and use that open-week date to get Mendoza ready. 

Mendoza, who will wear No. 15 as a pro after getting the blessing from former Raiders legend and Pro Football Hall of Famer Tom Flores to do so (it was never retired by the team), has a few season totals at FanDuel: Over/Under 2,350.5 passing yards and 12.5 passing TDs. Clearly the books don't think he's starting Week 1 with those numbers.

The past three Raiders Week 1 starting quarterbacks since Derek Carr left – Jimmy Garoppolo in 2023, Gardner Minshew in 2024 and Geno Smith in 2025 -- have combined for a 7-23 record in those seasons, with 35 passing touchdowns and 36 picks. Regardless, Las Vegas will become only the second team since 1950 with a different Week 1 head coach and starting QB in four straight seasons. The other was the 2020-23 Houston Texans.

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Pick: Short of injury or Mendoza wowing, which is certainly possible after watching what he did to my Miami Hurricanes in the national title game, I do expect Cousins under center in the opener.