World Baseball Classic betting: Dominican Republic among expert's picks, best bets for 2026 event
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca kicks off 2026 with his picks for this year's World Baseball Classic
Team Japan will look to repeat as World Baseball Classic champs when the event kicks off on March 4. The Japanese team beat Team USA in a thrilling championship game in 2023 that saw two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani strike out then-teammate Mike Trout to give Japan its third WBC title. The Japanese team figures to once again be a top contender for the title, but at +330, they're second on the DraftKings Sportsbook odds board behind Team USA, which is a -115 favorite. The Dominican Republic is third at +400, followed by Venezuela at +900.
Before you make any World Baseball Classic picks of your own, you need to see what SportsLine baseball expert Angelo Magliocca has to say. Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays since the start of the 2022 season. He's put together his best bets for the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and we can tell you that he's not backing either the USA or Japan to win the event this year. Here's what Amags has to say about this year's WBC:
The World Baseball Classic makes its long-awaited return next week as Japan looks to defend its title from 2023 when it took down Team USA in a classic battle. The game we all remember ended in a 3-2 victory for the Japanese, and given that the roster features stars from that last team like Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Munetaka Murakami, they should once again prove a tough foe for the USA.
This time around, the United States has loaded up their roster both with offensive talent and major upgrades at pitcher, which is a stark contrast to the 2023 championship game when we saw Merrill Kelly and Kyle Freeland as the only starting pitchers to take the mound. No offense to either of those guys, but Paul Skenes is in the building now, accompanied by Tarik Skubal, Logan Webb and a plethora of high-value MLB relievers, so this year looks a bit different. The unfortunate part for the USA is that it was announced that Skubal will only pitch in one game, and it will be during pool play, essentially taking him off the roster since the team won't need his help to beat a lowly Great Britain squad, making his appearance on the mound more of a formality.
Still, the relievers this team has at its disposal are much improved from 2023 and the best in the tournament, in my opinion, led by Yankees closer David Bednar, Padres closer Mason Miller, Mets pitchers Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes, along with Clayton Kershaw, who likely won't pitch much at all. There's a ton of firepower coming out of the bullpen, and if Skenes is truly going to make two starts for the Americans, I love their chances to win it all.
Team USA's lineup is stacked, including reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who will provide some major thump in the heart of the order. That's three hitters who all hit 50+ home runs last year in MLB action; truly a stunning set of players to run out there. I mention it being in MLB because, as you will see with many of these rosters, teams are banking on international players who have yet to see MLB competition. In the end, we will likely see those teams fall off once they face MLB's best players.
A lot would need to go wrong for Team USA to not make the championship game in this year's tournament, and by the looks of the odds board, that's not uncommon thinking. That makes it tough to back the Americans at minus odds before a pitch has been thrown. With that being said, let's explore some value that may be left on the board.
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Dominican Republic to win the WBC (+460, FanDuel)
You can still back the Dominican Republic at better than +400 odds to win the WBC and they bring a massive amount of talent to the table as well, making them my second favorite team to win, especially at this price. Led by captain Manny Machado, this lineup is riddled with MLB All-Stars in Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Junior Caminero, Ketel Marte, Fernando Tatis Jr and Oneil Cruz. The talent in this lineup is right there with the U.S. team, and those two tower over most of the other teams in the tournament, so I'm finding value at +400 or better for them to win it all.
The DR also has some stellar pitching, although it lacks depth from a starting pitcher perspective. Led by Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez and an aging Sandy Alcantara, I don't trust their starters to hold off the dogs of the USA or Venezuela, but the tournament format restricts total pitches from starters, which helps this team's lack of depth immensely. Starting pitchers can max out at 65 pitches during pool play, and they're kept under 80 pitches in all games prior to the championship, so stud relievers like Camilo Doval, Carlos Estevez, Abner Uribe, and Gregory Soto will likely be called on a bunch as this team moves through the tournament. Those are names I'm happy to back, and they're all guys we know as having some nasty stuff.
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Other World Baseball Classic best bets
- Venezuela to win Pool D (+165)
- Venezuela and DR to advance from Pool D (-220)
- Venezuela and DR to advance from Pool D + USA and Mexico to advance from Pool B (+114)
Failing to mention the other team that is likely to move on from Pool D would be silly, as Venezuela should give the DR a run for its money in terms of winning this pool. MLB players such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Eugenio Suarez, Jackson Chourio, Gleyber Torres and the Contreras brothers round out the lineup, with Ranger Suarez and Eduardo Rodriguez as top starters and a bullpen that gets thin much quicker than the DR but still features studs like Cubs closer Daniel Palencia and Eduard Bazardo from the Mariners, the latter of whom had a 2.52 ERA last year. For many of the teams in this tournament (excluding the USA), you will find native born players who play in their country's professional league or in a country nearby. It's always tough to tell how those guys will fare, so I won't dive into those players here. But know that anyone missing MLB experience is at a major disadvantage in most cases.
The play here for me is to bet Venezuela to win the pool and upset the DR for a half unit, but the more enticing angle in my opinion is taking Venezuela and DR to both advance on FanDuel at -220, a number that is far worse across all other major books. I don't see any way that the Netherlands, Israel or Nicaragua can keep pace with these two lineups, and none of those teams are really even given a chance to win the pool, so I'm happy to back the two powerhouses to make it to the next round.
I've parlayed this one with the US and Mexico to advance, giving me +114 odds on FanDuel. But if you feel like Italy may take out Mexico, I don't hate parlaying the DR and Venezuela bet with the UConn women's team to win the NCAA Tourney.
Pool A is the pool with the least amount of talent, especially after multiple stars for Puerto Rico had to pull out of the tournament after issues receiving insurance. Stud closer Edwin Diaz is still on the roster, along with fellow MLB pitchers Seth Lugo, Fernando Cruz and Jorge Lopez, so they should be able to keep some of the weaker lineups in their pool at bay and advance to the next round. From there, though, I think both the winner and runner-up from this pool will get crushed once they move on to face teams like Mexico, USA, Venezuela, Japan and the DR.
Mexico is a team I didn't mention much because they have to face off with Team USA in Pool B, placing them at best in the second-place spot and facing Puerto Rico in the next round. Mexico has a pitching problem on paper, led by Taj Bradley and Taijuan Walker, but they feature maybe the best closer in MLB, Seattle's Andres Muñoz, which is a big help in rounding out a bullpen that could use some help. Their lineup is also laden with MLB talent in Alejandro Kirk, Jonathan Aranda, Randy Arozarena and Jarren Duran, to name a few.
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Looking to upset in Pool B is Italy, which, on paper, has a fine set of MLB pitchers with Aaron Nola, Michael Lorenzen and relievers Ron Marinaccio, Adam Ottavino and Greg Weissert. Their lineup is solidified by major MLB lefties from the Royals in Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, along with Kyle Teel and former MLB steals leader Jon Berti. I don't believe Italy has enough firepower to take out Mexico, but I won't be surprised if they do because of how thin Mexico's pitching looks.
I'll keep this ending short and sweet; Chinese Taipei is a team on the rise, and the league in their home country is also developing fast in terms of talent. They won the Premier12 tournament by beating Japan less than two years ago, and that's likely why we see Japan rolling with Yoshinobu Yamamoto against them in pool play. A bit of revenge for the Japanese would be nice, but that Premier12 loss also came while the team was missing some of its best players, while Chinese Taipei has kept this team together for a few years now. In the end, it's Japan that probably wins this pool with ease, but if things gets weird, I could see Chinese Taipei squeaking through to the next round instead of Korea, so I don't mind a bet on them to advance, or even to win the pool at +2000 on Caesars.
Good luck and enjoy the tournament!
