Two teams will move a step closer to a national championship when the College Football Playoff semifinals occur this week. With the top four seeds of the tournament out of the picture, the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions face the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Thursday, while the No. 5 Texas Longhorns meet the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. on Friday.
Notre Dame (13-1), which advanced by knocking off the second-seeded Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals, is a 1.5-point favorite against Penn State (13-2) in the latest CFP semifinals odds. After rolling past the No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks, Ohio State (12-2) is a 5.5-point favorite versus Texas (13-2).
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The BetMGM Sportsbook promo is one of several sportsbook promotions being offered for the CFP semifinals. BetMGM's current welcome bonus offers new players more money in bonus bets than the welcome bonuses of their competitors. However, the bonus is not unique in the industry; other online sportsbooks offer similar welcome promotions, and not all are tied to winning the initial bet in order to receive the bonus.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame (Thursday)
- Kickoff time 7:30 p.m. ET
- Point spread Fighting Irish -1.5
- Money line Fighting Irish -121, Nittany Lions +101
- Total 45.5
Picks and more to know
Notre Dame is in the midst of a 12-game winning streak as it continues its quest for a 12th national title and first since 1988. After defeating the 10th-seeded Indiana Hoosiers 27-17 in the first round of the CFP, the Fighting Irish posted a 23-10 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last week.
Riley Leonard threw a touchdown pass to Beaux Collins and rushed for a game-high 80 yards as Notre Dame set the single-season school record with its 13th win and booked its second trip to the CFP semifinals (lost to Clemson in 2018). The senior is 54 yards away from passing Tony Rice (884 in 1989) for the most by a Fighting Irish quarterback in one campaign.
Notre Dame, which has allowed just three points in the first half of each of its first two CFP games, has registered 42 rushing touchdowns to match the single-season school record. The club may have a difficult time eclipsing the mark as Penn State is tied for third in the nation with only eight TDs allowed on the ground this year.
The Nittany Lions have held each of their first two playoff opponents to season lows in points, routing the 11th-seeded SMU Mustangs 38-10 in the opening round before trouncing the No. 3 seed Boise State Broncos 31-14 in the quarterfinals. They also have tied the program mark for wins in a season and look to break it as they aim for their third national title and first since 1986.
Drew Allar threw three touchdown passes in the triumph over Boise State, including two to tight end Tyler Warren, without an interception. The junior has made 22 starts without being picked off over the last two seasons, the most by an FBS quarterback in that span. Warren enters the Orange Bowl with a program-record 98 receptions and 1,158 receiving yards, the most by a tight end in one campaign in Big Ten history.
The Nittany Lions are among the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking sixth in total defense (288.8 yards allowed). They lead FBS in red-zone defense with a 39.5 opponents' touchdown percentage, are seventh in points allowed (15.8) and rank eighth against the run (100.9 yards allowed).
The SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in well over 50% of simulations in this matchup, while Penn State expert Adam Silverstein (16-2 in his last 18 picks in Penn State games) has a play on the total.
Texas vs. Ohio State (Friday)
- Kickoff time 7:30 p.m. ET
- Point spread Buckeyes -5.5
- Money line Buckeyes -231, Longhorns +190
- Total 53.5
Picks and more to know
Two of the four stingiest defenses in the nation collide in this matchup, as Ohio State has given up an FBS-low 12.1 points this season while Texas ranks fourth with an average of 14.5 points allowed. Those units will be strongly tested based on the the first two rounds of the CFP, when the Buckeyes scored 42 points in their victory over the ninth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers before recording 41 against Oregon and the Longhorns put up 38 and 39 versus the 12th-seeded Clemson Tigers and fourth-seeded Arizona State Sun Devils, respectively.
Ohio State, which is vying for its ninth national title and first since 2014, also is first in the country in total defense as it has permitted 244.6 yards per game this season. The club ranks first against the pass (152.4 yards allowed) and is fifth versus the run, allowing an average of 92.2 yards on the ground.
The Buckeyes stymied Oregon's ground attack in their quarterfinal matchup, as the Ducks finished with -23 yards on 28 rushing attempts. Offensively, Will Howard threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns - including two to freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith, who is tied for third in the nation with 14 TD catches and has recorded five over his last three games. Smith has posted two 100-yard performances in the playoffs (187 against Oregon) after registering three during the regular season.
Howard has thrown for over 300 yards in both of Ohio State's CFP contests after accomplishing the feat just once in the regular campaign (326 in a loss to the Ducks on Oct. 12). He still ranks 12th in the country with 3,490 passing yards and is fifth with 32 touchdown tosses, recording at least one in every game this year.
Texas has been no slouch defensively, ranking third in both total defense (277.7 yards allowed) and passing defense (166.1) while placing 14th against the run (111.5). The Longhorns, who are in search of their fifth national championship and first since 2005, have tied the single-season school record for victories and are 13-0 this year versus teams other than Georgia.
Quinn Ewers, who was a redshirt freshman at Ohio State in 2021 before transferring to Texas, has elevated his game of late. The junior has posted two 300-yard performances over his last three outings after recording just one in 10 regular-season contests. Ewers threw for 322 yards and three TDs in the 39-31 double-overtime quarterfinal victory against Arizona State and is five scoring passes away from tying the single-season program record of 34 set in 2008 by Colt McCoy.
The SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in more than 60% of simulations in this matchup, while Texas expert Josh Nagel (26-12 in his last 38 picks in Texas games) also has a pick on the spread.
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