I've been ranking Big Ten strengths of schedule for years now, and every time, I've made a point of saying that, while some schedules are easier than others, there's no such thing as an easy schedule in the Big Ten. It's a statement that's even truer now that the league expands to 18 teams.
For years, the East Division was always catching the shorter end of the stick, as programs like Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland and Michigan State couldn't escape the trio of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. While they're out of that predicament, they now run the risk of running into an Oregon or USC.
Then, there are the programs that were in the West Division. Every year, one of the best ways to determine which program had a leg up in the division race was to find the one that missed at least two of those eastern powers, if not all three. That divisional protection is gone.
Everybody is playing at least nine conference games, and everybody is facing at least two teams who could be in the College Football Playoff. There is nowhere to hide, and this was only driven further home for me as I meticulously dug into each schedule to determine which Big Ten schools have it tougher than everyone else.
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We'll start with the most difficult and work our way to the "easiest."
Big Ten 2024 Strength of Schedule
| 1 | |
| The first season in the Big Ten will be difficult for UCLA and its first-time head coach, DeShaun Foster. The Bruins are playing a Magellan-like schedule that will see them traveling roughly a billion miles, but it's not just the travel; it's the opponents. The nonconference schedule includes a road trip to Hawaii and a trip to LSU. There's also a game against a Fresno State team that should finish near the top of the Mountain West. In league play, you have road games against Penn State, Nebraska and Washington, but at least you get Oregon and USC at home? | |
| 2 | |
| I wrote last season that Ryan Walters needed to talk with his athletic director about Purdue's noncon scheduling, and this season is no different. Starting with Indiana State is fine, but following it up with Notre Dame is rough, and then there's a road trip to Oregon State a week later. Another problem the Boilermakers face is that most of their games against teams on the same tier (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, and Indiana) are all on the road. Meanwhile, they'll have to deal with Nebraska, Oregon and Penn State at home. Oh, and there's a road trip to Ohio State, too, you know, for fun. | |
| 3 | |
| USC caught a bit more of a break in their Big Ten schedule than UCLA did but decided to make life exceptionally difficult on itself in the noncon. I don't know if you heard Lincoln Riley mention that Alabama scheduled for success rather than entertainment, and I'd feel the same way if I had to play both LSU and Notre Dame out of conference before tossing in a road trip to Michigan as well as a home date with Penn State. | |
| 4 | |
| There are plenty of winnable games on the Badgers schedule in 2024, but any time you schedule a nonconference game against Alabama, you will rank highly here. Sure, it's in Madison, and it's no longer Nick Saban's Alabama, but it's still Alabama. The good news is that the road schedule in conference play isn't horrible overall, but you've still got to face USC, Iowa, and Nebraska on the road. You also get Penn State and Oregon coming to Camp Randall. | |
| 5 | |
| Michigan won the College Football Playoff last year, and will face two of the other three teams that played in it with them. There's a home date with Texas in September and a title game rematch at Washington in October. There are also two other games against playoff favorites Oregon and Ohio State. While the Wolverines are likely to be favored in every other game they play, those are four very difficult games! | |
| 6 | |
| Michigan State's schedule should be broken into three parts. The first part features four games against Florida Atlantic and Prairie View at home and road games against Maryland and Boston College. The road games aren't fun, but it's manageable for a program with a new coach and a new quarterback. That stretch is followed by Part Two, which is a four-game death march through the gates of hell. Sparty will face Ohio State at home, hit the road for Oregon, return home for Iowa, and then go back on the road for Michigan in a five-week span. Part Three is much easier (Indiana, at Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers), but who knows what kind of shape this roster will be in after that second part? | |
| 7 | |
| Jedd Fisch says Washington needs a reboot more than a rebuild in his first season, and the first half of the schedule should allow the Huskies plenty of room to find themselves. The first four games are at home, and Washington should be favored heavily in all of them. The first true test is a road trip to Rutgers, which, as far as first road games go, is more desirable than other locations. After that, things toughen up. Michigan comes to Seattle and is followed by a road trip to Iowa. Then there's November, which features USC at home and road games against Penn State and Oregon. | |
| 8 | |
| The Illini start with three nonconference games, including a tough one against Kansas and two games against Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan that shouldn't be too challenging. The league schedule is far more difficult and begins with consecutive road games against Penn State and Nebraska. After returning home to face Purdue, the Illini will get Michigan and Oregon in consecutive weeks, with Oregon on the road. The last half of the month has winnable games, but finishing with consecutive road games against Rutgers and Northwestern adds a bit more complexity. | |
| 9 | |
| A curveball in figuring out the rankings this season was determining how much of a homefield advantage Northwestern would have this season playing on its practice field alongside Lake Michigan. While none of us can be sure until we see it play out, we do know that aside from Ohio State, the home schedule features many winnable games. The road slate isn't quite as kind, as it includes trips to Washington, Iowa, and Michigan. | |
| 10 | |
| Minnesota's noncon this season isn't too difficult, though it does begin with a home game against North Carolina. Also, the Gophers will spend a lot of time at home early in the year, as six of their first eight games (including the first four) are in Minneapolis, though that run does include games against Iowa and USC. The first road game is against Michigan, and three of their final four games are on the road against Illinois, Rutgers and Wisconsin. Oh, and the lone home game in that stretch is vs. Penn State. The Gophers may want to stack up wins early. | |
| 11 | |
| Ohio State looked at Michigan's nonconference schedule last season and said, "gimme that." I don't know how much time anybody will spend watching the second halves of games against Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. The Big Ten slate starts with a road trip to Michigan State, followed by a home date with Iowa. That's when the difficulty turns up a notch, as the Buckeyes will go on the road for Oregon, return home for Nebraska, and travel to Penn State. That's followed by three easy wins against Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana before finishing the season with That Team Up North. | |
| 12 | |
| Stop me if you've heard this before, but there's a decent chance Maryland starts the year strong and fades down the stretch. The Terps open with home dates against UConn and Michigan State and will play on the road for the first time against Virginia. Then there's Villanova, a road trip to Indiana, and Northwestern in College Park. How shocked would you be if the Terps are 5-1 after that stretch? The back half of the schedule won't be as fun. The Terps will face USC, Oregon on the road, Iowa and finish the season at Penn State. They'll also have a road game against Minnesota and a home date with Rutgers peppered in between. | |
| 13 | |
| The Hawkeyes will play seven home games this year, and there's a good chance they'll win all seven. Yes, the home slate features Iowa State, Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes should be favored vs. all of them. On the other side, while Iowa will have to go on the road to face Ohio State, the rest of the road slate isn't terrible either. All in all, Ohio State is the only one of the top-four favorites to win the league (based on odds) the Hawkeyes will face. The reason Iowa's schedule is ranked this high is that while there are few elite teams on it, there aren't any cupcakes, either, outside of the opener against Illinois State. | |
| 14 | |
| I confidently say that James Franklin is happy to be out of the Big Ten East. While the Nittany Lions will play Ohio State again this year, Michigan isn't on the schedule, nor is Oregon. The noncon features a tough game at West Virginia to open the year, but two very winnable games against Bowling Green and Kent State. The toughest road game is either USC or Wisconsin, depending on how you feel about either. Aside from that Ohio State game, it's a home slate that will include multiple wins of two scores or more. | |
| 15 | |
| Oregon's schedule is extremely top-heavy. There's a home date with Ohio State in mid-October and a road trip to Michigan to start November. Besides those two games, I see little danger looming for the Ducks. The noncon includes a road game against Oregon State, but I don't think this year's Beavers team will be at the same level we saw last year. The home slate also includes games against Boise State, Michigan State, Illinois, Maryland and Washington. I'm not out on a limb when I say the Ducks are the conference newcomer most likely to win the league, and it's due to a combination of roster talent and schedule. | |
| 16 | |
| This is roughly the 100th straight year in which we wonder if Nebraska Is Back, and the schedule only adds fuel to the fire. The Cornhuskers have a road game against Ohio State but avoid Oregon, Michigan and Penn State. Five of the first six games are at home, and before the Ohio State game, the toughest opponent is either Colorado, Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers or Indiana. Things do get more difficult late, though, as the Huskers will finish with UCLA, at USC, Wisconsin and at Iowa on Black Friday. | |
| 17 | |
| Rutgers was picked to finish ninth in the league in an unofficial media poll and has a win total of 6.5. If you were wondering why expectations were so high for the Scarlet Knights, look no further than the schedule. It's almost as if the Big Ten was apologizing for all those games against Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Knights don't play any of those three, nor do they play Oregon. If you look at conference title odds, the Knights face only one of the league's top-six teams (at USC in late October). All that said there's a tough road trip to Virginia Tech, and it's not as if Rutgers has reached a place where it can take any win for granted. Still, this is a schedule the Knights want to take advantage of because, odds are, it'll be a while before they get one this manageable again. | |
| 18 | |
| Indiana didn't get the same relief Rutgers did, but overall, this is a manageable schedule for the Hoosiers in Curt Cignetti's first season. Getting Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks in late November is cruel, but everything else sets up well. There are three extremely winnable noncon games against FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte. In league play, the home slate has Maryland, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan and Purdue. Outside Michigan, the Hoosiers will have at least a puncher's chance in all of them. While Ohio State on the road is Mission Impossible, other road trips to UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State will present opportunities to steal a win. | |