There's never a dull moment in the SEC.
Let's start at the top, where Ole Miss knocked Georgia from the top of the conference standings with a convincing 28-10 victory. It's a win that puts the Rebels into contention for a College Football Playoff berth, but I do not have them projected there ... yet. The home loss to Kentucky, which may not finish with more than four wins, stands out in comparison with other potential two-loss teams.
The loss for Georgia combined with wins by Alabama and Tennessee leave me with Texas finishing first in the SEC regular season and a six-car pileup behind them of teams with two conference losses. I had to dig deep into the tiebreaker to emerge with an opponent for the Longhorns, and that team is the Crimson Tide, who would earn the conference championship berth based on the record of their conference opponents. I also project Alabama to win the SEC title game over Texas and earn a 3-seed in the playoff field.
Ohio State moves up to the top seed in the wake of Georgia's loss. BYU, which is early in its game with rival Utah at time of publish, is projected to finish undefeated and get the No. 2 seed. I have the Cougars undefeated, and I believe the two-loss difference should be enough to finish ahead Alabama, which is how the committee placed them this week.
I had previously been projecting Iowa State to be the Big 12 champ, but the Cyclones lost their second game in a row on Saturday and will need help to get to the title game now. Colorado is in the driver's seat to join BYU after a win at Texas Tech on Saturday.
The fourth No. 1 seed is still Miami despite the loss Saturday to Georgia Tech. Miami may have to go into the ACC title game as the lower seed against SMU, but I still like the Hurricanes to emerge victorious from that matchup.
In this projection, Miami also has to win a tiebreaker to get to the ACC title game. The Canes get the nod over Clemson because of a better record against common opponents.
College Football Playoff
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | (1) Ohio State vs. (8/9) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | (2) BYU vs. (7/10) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Peach Bowl | (4) Miami vs. (5/12) Winner |
Dec. 31 | Sugar Bowl | (3) Alabama vs. (6/11) Winner |
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec. 20 or 21 | Autzen Stadium | (5) Oregon vs. (12) Boise State | (4) Iowa State |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Beaver Stadium | (8) Penn State vs. (9) Notre Dame | (1) Georgia |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Sanford Stadium | (6) Georgia vs. (11) Indiana | (3) Miami |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium | (7) Texas vs. (10) Tennessee | (2) Ohio State |
The home teams in the first-round games are familiar names. Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State are projected to the 5-8 seeds. The Ducks are expected to take their first loss of the season against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and the fifth automatic qualifier, Boise State, round out the 12-team field. The Hoosiers are making their first appearance in these projections despite their first close call of the season in a win over Michigan on Saturday. Well, that and the possibility of not having defeated a team with more than six wins at the end of the season. The committee seemed impressed with them in the initial rankings release on Tuesday, so I expect that will be the same this week as well.
Be sure to check back on Sunday for Jerry Palm's complete list of bowl projections.