A new era in college football begins with the arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Instead of just four of the 25 teams in the College Football Playoff Rankings being featured, almost half of them will earn a berth in the field. The first CFP Rankings will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 5 this season, but I do not want to wait that long. I am here to predict what the top 25 would look like if the CFP Selection Committee were making its announcement this week.
The top five-ranked conference champions automatically earn a CFP berth with the top four receiving first-round byes. The top seven remaining teams in the rankings will be slotted accordingly as at-large teams.
Before we get going, here are some of the criteria considered by the CFP besides a team's record:
- Conference championships
- Head-to-head
- Strength of schedule
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than the one you are used to hearing. The rankings used for that standard are the previous week's CFP Rankings. They don't use rankings at the time the game was played from their own rankings or any other poll.
In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point, which excludes the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. Not only do they not try to mimic those polls, they do not even use them.
Trying to sort out strength of schedule is going to be more of a chore for the committee this season than in the past. Oh, sure, they will have a SOS metric to use, but getting into the details may cause some headaches. Now that the four major conferences each have 16 or more teams, you have teams playing widely diverse schedules within the conference.
For example, in the SEC, Ole Miss is playing Georgia at home and at LSU, a game which it has already lost. It is possible that none of the other conference teams on their schedule finish the season with more than seven total wins. Meanwhile, Georgia has a schedule that has trips to Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama and a home game with Tennessee.
Notice also that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been, but that term comes out of the mouth of the committee chairman pretty regularly when talking about why a team is ranked where it is. Even if the chairman is not using that term specifically, he finds other ways to describe it.
Also, while scoring margin is not specifically a factor, the committee likes dominance, which is also a result of game control.
In the end, this is a subjective process guided by some objective data. There are 13 committee members and each may value the data points differently than their colleagues.
With all that in mind, here is what I think the rankings would look like this week. It is top heavy with SEC and Big Ten teams, but that is just where the power is in college football. Get used to it because the gap will more likely get bigger over time.
References to "rankings" refer to this week's AP Top 25, but that is just for curiosity; I am not using it to evaluate the teams. Once the CFP Rankings are released, I will be using those for reference going forward.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| The Ducks are making the most of their Big Ten debut as wins over Ohio State and Illinois have them well positioned for a shot at the Big Ten Championship Game. Road trips to Michigan and Wisconsin are the biggest road blocks. This week: at Michigan | |
| 2 | |
| It's going to be tough to top the Bulldogs' schedule this season. They have already played Clemson, Alabama and Texas, all away from home, and have won two of those games. Georgia still has a road trip to Ole Miss and will get Tennessee at home. This week: vs. Florida | |
| 3 | |
| The Big Ten race will be interesting this season because Penn State, Oregon and Indiana do not play each other and all are currently undefeated in conference play. As it is for the other two teams, Ohio State is the biggest game on Penn State's schedule. Starting quarterback Drew Allar is a game-time decision after being injured right before halftime of last week's game at Wisconsin. This week: at Ohio State | |
| 4 | |
| The Buckeyes have dominated this series, winning 11 of the last 12 games. They will need to win again this time if they hope to stay in the Big Ten championship race. At least it's not a White Out game; Ohio State has lost three of the last four of those. This week: vs. Penn State | |
| 5 | |
| The Hurricanes are the highest-rated team in these rankings without a win over a team listed here. Despite that, Miami has some decent strength-of-schedule numbers and one of the best offenses in the nation. Its ceiling will be limited until defeating some better teams, though. This week: vs. Duke | |
| 6 | |
| I have not found a preseason prediction that had the Cougars in the top 10 of the Big 12, let alone the nation, but here they are. Wins over Kansas State and at SMU have them in the top 10. BYU has only one game left against a team that is currently above .500, so their margin for error is not great. This week: OFF | |
| 7 | |
| The Crimson Tide are the highest-ranked two-loss team because of the strength of their schedule and quality of their losses. Yes, I know Vanderbilt is on that list, but if you keep reading, you will see that they are on this one also. Alabama has only played one team that tis currently below .500 (South Florida 3-4). This week: OFF | |
| 8 | |
| Texas has slid back to the pack a bit after a hot start to the season. Georgia dominated the Longhorns at home two week ago and struggled to win at Vanderbilt last week. Perhaps the week off will help to prepare for the stretch run which ends with at game at Texas A&M. This week: OFF | |
| 9 | |
| The Cyclones' best win so far came at Iowa, a team which has fallen out of the rankings. The only other ranked team on their remaining schedule is Kansas State now that Utah has fallen apart without QB Cam Rising. A win over the Red Raiders this week would be their second-best. This week: vs. Texas Tech | |
| 10 | |
| The Fighting Irish will be battling strength-of-schedule problems. The win at Texas A&M may be their only win over a ranked team this season. Florida State was expected to be, but the Seminoles have cratered. USC could end up there eventually, but the Trojans will have to improve. Navy is at the bottom of these rankings but is unlikely to end up there. Army's only chance to finish in these rankings is to beat the Irish. They are a likely CFP team at 11-1, but any loss puts them in danger. This week: OFF | |
| 11 | |
| The Aggies are the fourth highest-rated team from the SEC on this list but first in the standings after a big win over LSU last Saturday thanks to the emergence of Marcel Reed at QB. The path to the SEC title game is in front of them, but they better not overlook South Carolina. This week: at South Carolina | |
| 12 | |
| The Volunteers looked to be in trouble after losing at Arkansas and needing overtime to beat Florida, but then they got the big win over Alabama. Tennessee's schedule is pretty soft for an SEC team with their only other marquee game being at Georgia on Nov. 16. The Vols also finish with Vanderbilt and should hope that stands up as a quality game. This week: vs. Kentucky | |
| 13 | |
| Speaking of bad schedules, the resurgent Hoosiers have the worst of any Power Four team. Nebraska is the only team Indiana has defeated so far with a record above .500, but the Hoosiers will get their shot at Ohio State eventually. In the meantime, they need to pile up as big of a number as they can. This week: at Michigan State | |
| 14 | |
| The Tigers are similar to Indiana except they have played Georgia and got their doors blown off. They have not had to break a sweat to win since, however. Perhaps Louisville will give them a test. This week: vs. Louisville | |
| 15 | |
| Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty, The Broncos join Ohio State at the only teams to threaten Oregon so far this season. They have also handed Washington State its only loss so far and won at UNLV last week. They are the leading candidate by far to be the Group of Five representative in the CFP this season. This week: vs. San Diego State | |
| 16 | |
| The Wildcats lost badly to the best team that have played, which was a 38-9 defeat at BYU. They did beat Colorado on the road, though, and were a candidate to be on this list. This week: at Houston | |
| 17 | |
| LSU got steamrolled at Texas A&M after the Aggies changed quarterbacks. The Tigers do have a win over Ole Miss and at Arkansas and have played a schedule so far that ranks only behind Georgia and Alabama among the SEC teams in these rankings. This week: OFF | |
| 18 | |
| The Panthers demolished Syracuse for their best win of the season so far, which also indicates that they have not played the strongest of schedules. Prior to that game, Pitt had not been especially dominant against its schedule either. This week: at SMU | |
| 19 | |
| The Mustangs lost to the only team they have played in these rankings, which was an 18-15 loss to BYU at home. They also have a win at Duke, which is the difference between SMU being in these rankings instead of the Blue Devils. This week: vs. Pitt | |
| 20 | |
| The Illini have been unable to get over the hump against the ranked teams on their schedule but do have wins over Michigan and at Nebraska. Illinois has nothing but winnable games left, and win them all they must to cling to its long-shot CFP hopes This week: vs. Minnesota. | |
| 21 | |
| The Cougars' lone blemish is a 45-24 loss at Boise State, but they are lacking in quality wins and the remaining schedule will not provide any chances at some. This week: OFF | |
| 22 | |
| The Tigers' best win came in OT against Vanderbilt. They were not terribly competitive in losses at Alabama and Texas A&M. This week: OFF | |
| 23 | |
| The Commodores beat Alabama, but a loss to Georgia State is weighing them down in these rankings. We would be having different conversations about Vandy if it won that one. This week: at Auburn | |
| 24 | |
| The Rebels have a home loss to a Kentucky team that appears to be tanking, and their best win is at 4-3 South Carolina. This resume needs some juice, but they do have Georgia left on the schedule. This week: at Arkansas | |
| 25 | |
| Yes, Navy instead of undefeated Army. Neither has a great schedule, but the Midshipmen have already taken their lumps against Notre Dame and handed Memphis their only loss. Army's best win came last week at home to 4-4 East Carolina. This week: at Rice | |
First five out (alphabetical order): Arkansas, Army, Colorado, Memphis, Syracuse