Decision day has finally arrived. No, not that decision. Well, that one too, but the one I'm talking about is the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the 2024 season. The process for the committee is the same as always, but more teams in the rankings will be relevant to the playoff discussion because this season marks the dawn of the 12-team era.
The team I am most curious about on Tuesday is Indiana. We are used to seeing the selection committee deal with non-Power Four teams with gaudy records and terrible schedules; Army fits that mold this season. By Power Four standards, the Hoosiers' schedule is dreadful. I can't remember the committee having to evaluate a Power Four team with a strength of schedule ranking near 100 this late in the season, which is a huge negative.
At the same time, however, Indiana has largely dominated its opponents with no wins by fewer than 14 points -- and we know the committee does like dominance. The Hoosiers have the highest average scoring margin against FBS opposition this season.
So how the committee balances those things in comparison to the rest of the field will be the biggest thing we learn on Tuesday night.
The top five-ranked conference champions automatically earn a CFP berth with the top four receiving first-round byes. The top seven remaining teams in the rankings will be slotted accordingly as at-large teams.
Before we get going, here are some of the criteria considered by the CFP besides a team's record:
- Conference championships
- Head-to-head
- Strength of schedule
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than the one you are used to hearing. The rankings used for that standard are the previous week's CFP Rankings. They don't use rankings at the time the game was played from their own rankings or any other poll.
In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point, which excludes the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. Not only do they not try to mimic those polls, they do not even use them.
Trying to sort out strength of schedule is going to be more of a chore for the committee this season than in the past. Oh, sure, they will have a SOS metric to use, but getting into the details may cause some headaches. Now that the four major conferences each have 16 or more teams, you have teams playing widely diverse schedules within the conference.
For example, in the SEC, Ole Miss is playing Georgia at home and at LSU, a game which it has already lost. It is possible that none of the other conference teams on their schedule finish the season with more than seven total wins. Meanwhile, Georgia has a schedule that has trips to Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama and a home game with Tennessee.
Notice also that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been, but that term comes out of the mouth of the committee chairman pretty regularly when talking about why a team is ranked where it is. Even if the chairman is not using that term specifically, he finds other ways to describe it.
Also, while scoring margin is not specifically a factor, the committee likes dominance, which is also a result of game control.
In the end, this is a subjective process guided by some objective data. There are 13 committee members and each may value the data points differently than their colleagues.
With all that in mind, here is what I think the rankings will look like this week. It is top heavy with SEC and Big Ten teams, but that is just where the power is in college football. Get used to it because the gap will more likely get bigger over time.
References to "rankings" refer to this week's AP Top 25, but that is just for curiosity; I am not using it to evaluate the teams. Once the CFP Rankings are released, I will be using those for reference going forward.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| This is the easiest call the committee will have to make. The Ducks are a no-brainer to start on top. This week: vs. Maryland | |
| 2 | |
| The Bulldogs have played arguably the toughest schedule of anyone, and if not for the loss at Alabama, they would be the top dog. Some would argue they should be anyway. This week: at Ole Miss | |
| 3 | |
| Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Ohio State beat Penn State on Saturday. The Buckeyes get a breather this week before welcoming Indiana next week. They are more than five-touchdown favorites against Purdue. This week: vs. Purdue | |
| 4 | |
| When Miami turns on the jets, they leave everyone in the dust. Duke led the Canes 28-17 early in the third quarter, but Miami went on a 36-3 run to end the game. The Canes are the No. 1 team in relative total and scoring offense. This week: at Georgia Tech | |
| 5 | |
| The Cougars had a week off to prepare for their rivalry game against Utah. The Utes have not been the same since Cam Rising was lost for the season, though. BYU does not put up the big numbers that the other undefeated teams do; the Cougars' average margin of victory is just under 14 ppg, while the other four undefeated teams all average at last 20 ppg. This week: at Utah | |
| 6 | |
| The Longhorns come off a bye week to play Florida at home. They need to finish strong to set up a huge game with Texas A&M to end the regular season. This week: vs. Florida | |
| 7 | |
| The Nittany Lions are the highest-rated team here that needs help to get to at least a tiebreaker for its conference championship game. There are two undefeated teams in the Big Ten, and Penn State does not play either of them. Still, 11-1 should be good enough for a spot in the playoff. This week: vs. Washington | |
| 8 | |
| Tennessee has not exactly been dominant in conference play with no win greater than 10 points, but wins are wins – except for the one over Alabama. That is not just a win. This week: vs. Mississippi State | |
| 9 | |
| Much has been made about Alabama having two losses entering November, but when was the last time they were eliminated from playoff contention in the first week of November, even during the four-team CFP era? It doesn't happen often, but that will be their fate with a loss at LSU. I do not expect nine wins to be good enough to make the CFP this season. This week: at LSU | |
| 10 | |
| Indiana better not get caught looking ahead to Ohio State this week. That said, it seems weird to have to caution someone not to overlook Michigan, but that's where we are. The Hoosiers need to treat the Wolverines like they do everyone else. This week: vs. Michigan | |
| 11 | |
| The Fighting Irish probably need to go 11-1 to make the playoff with that ugly loss to Northern Illinois sitting on the resume. They could get to 11-1 without beating a team in the final rankings, although Louisville is trying to make sure that does not happen. This week: vs. Florida State | |
| 12 | |
| The Mustangs have managed the shift to a power conference pretty well. They are on track to play for the ACC title in their first season in the league but currently a long shot to make the CFP any other way, though. This week: OFF | |
| 13 | |
| The Broncos are in the driver's seat for a guaranteed spot in the CFP, and it cannot be ruled out that they could do better than the 12- seed. This week: vs. Nevada | |
| 14 | |
| The Aggies got smoked at South Carolina, and while that does not eliminate them from CFP or even SEC contention, their margin for error is gone. This week: OFF | |
| 15 | |
| The Cyclones took their first loss of the season at home to Texas Tech. They no longer control their own fate for the Big 12 title game because they are now in a tie with Colorado, whom they do not play. This week: vs. Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium | |
| 16 | |
| Just when we thought Clemson had things figured out, it went and lost at home to Louisville. The Tigers went from having at least a shot at an at-large bid to the CFP and maybe even the ACC title to not controlling their fate anymore. Miami and SMU are ahead of them. Neither play each other, nor do they play Clemson. This week: at Virginia Tech | |
| 17 | |
| The Tigers can breathe life into their CFP hopes with a win over Alabama. The rest of the schedule sets up well for them to finish 10-2 if they stem the Tide. This week: vs. Alabama | |
| 18 | |
| The Cardinals were playing their fourth top-25 team in the last six games when they faced Clemson on Saturday and finally came away with a win. Louisville is the highest-rated team on this list without even an outside shot at the CFP, but a big bowl game is still in play. This week: OFF | |
| 19 | |
| Ole Miss has to win the rest of its games for even a sliver of hope for a shot at the playoff. That is what losing to 3-6 Kentucky does for you. Beating Georgia this week starts to make up for that. This week: vs. Georgia | |
| 20 | |
| The Cougars don't have the schedule to contend for a spot in the CFP and are without a conference championship to win. However, an 11-1 finish would still be a great accomplishment. This week: vs. Utah State | |
| 21 | |
| The Gamecocks are out of CFP contention, but that won't stop them from ruining it for others. They stomped Texas A&M to the edge of the CFP cliff on Saturday. This week: at Vanderbilt | |
| 22 | |
| The Panthers couldn't match the quality of play from the week before against Syracuse and fell from the ranks of the unbeaten at SMU. Like Clemson, they need help to reach the ACC title game, which does not seem realistic. This week: vs. Virginia | |
| 23 | |
| The Wildcats fell out of CFP contention with a loss at Houston. Their margin for error was not very big to begin with, but that is gone now. This week: OFF | |
| 24 | |
| The Tigers need a quality win desperately but have no opponents fitting that criteria left on their schedule. This week: vs. Oklahoma | |
| 25 | |
| The Commodores host fellow three-loss team South Carolina this Saturday to see who stays in these rankings for another week. This week: vs. South Carolina | |
First five out (alphabetical order): Army, Colorado, Syracuse, Tulane, UNLV