The second release of the College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2024 season figures to have some teams shifting around as a result of upset losses by Georgia and Miami. Five CFP-ranked teams lost overall, and only the Alabama win over LSU was not an upset.
The team I was most curious about was Indiana. The Hoosiers ended up eighth in the first rankings, a couple spots higher than I predicted. Now that they have won a competitive game, it will be interesting to see where the selection committee slots them.
Last week, the committee showed a strong commitment to honoring head-to-head results with only Alabama behind Georgia in the rankings as the exception as Georgia had the better record. That did not dissuade them from having then 6-3 Louisville ahead of 6-2 Clemson, though. This week's exceptions are also because the losing team has a better record. Texas will be ahead of Georgia and Ole Miss will be above LSU. As the season continues, it will get harder to honor head-to-head results.
The top five-ranked conference champions automatically earn a CFP berth with the top four receiving first-round byes. The top seven remaining teams in the rankings will be slotted accordingly as at-large teams.
Before we get going, here are some of the criteria considered by the CFP besides a team's record:
- Conference championships
- Head-to-head
- Strength of schedule
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than the one you are used to hearing. The rankings used for that standard are the previous week's CFP Rankings. They don't use rankings at the time the game was played from their own rankings or any other poll.
In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point, which excludes the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. Not only do they not try to mimic those polls, they do not even use them.
Trying to sort out strength of schedule is going to be more of a chore for the committee this season than in the past. Oh, sure, they will have a SOS metric to use, but getting into the details may cause some headaches. Now that the four major conferences each have 16 or more teams, you have teams playing widely diverse schedules within the conference.
In the Big Ten, Indiana only has one game on its schedule against a team in these rankings, which is at Ohio State on Nov. 23. After playing Big Ten East schedules for all those years, the Hoosiers were probably due for a break. Meanwhile, Purdue has already played two teams likely to be ranked in this week's top 10 with two more on the horizon. The Boilermakers also played Illinois, which could end up in the final top 25. They also played projected No. 10 Notre Dame in nonconference play.
Notice also that "game control" is not listed among the criteria. It never has been, but that term comes out of the mouth of the committee chairman pretty regularly when talking about why a team is ranked where it is. Even if the chairman is not using that term specifically, he finds other ways to describe it.
Also, while scoring margin is not specifically a factor, the committee likes dominance, which is also a result of game control.
In the end, this is a subjective process guided by some objective data. There are 13 committee members and each may value the data points differently than their colleagues.
With all that in mind, here is what I think the rankings will look like this week. It is top heavy with SEC and Big Ten teams, but that is just where the power is in college football. Get used to it because the gap will more likely get bigger over time.
References to rankings refer to last week's CFP Rankings. It is the only set or rankings used by the committee when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| The Ducks handled Maryland last week and remain the last of the unbeaten Power Four teams. They are two-touchdown favorites again this week at Wisconsin. (Last week -- 1) | |
| 2 | |
| Ohio State did to Purdue what teams like the Buckeyes should do. They have one more tuneup with Northwestern before the showdown with Indiana on Nov. 23. (2) | |
| 3 | |
| The Longhorns throttled Florida to remain in a three-way tie atop the SEC with Texas A&M and Tennessee, and they will eventually get a shot at the rival Aggies. Win out and Texas plays for the SEC title in its first season in the conference. (5) | |
| 4 | |
| The Nittany Lions continue to cruise along through the remainder of their schedule. They visit Purdue this week to face a Boilers team that appears to have derailed. (6) | |
| 5 | |
| Tennessee had an injury scare with QB Nico Iamaleava, but Coach Josh Heupel says he'll be ready to go for the massive game at Georgia this week. (7) | |
| 6 | |
| Miami played with its food one time too many and fell 28-23 at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are now 6-4, so while not a horrible loss, this is still the Hurricanes' ceiling for this week. I would not be surprised if the committee ranks them a couple spots lower. (4) | |
| 7 | |
| The Hoosiers got their first real test of the season in a 20-15 victory as Michigan battled them all way to the end. It is the first victory for IU that is by fewer than 14 points. Ohio State is next, but first comes a bye week. (8) | |
| 8 | |
| The Cougars almost didn't' get by rival Utah. A controversial holding call extended what turned out to be the winning touchdown drive late in the game. BYU will need better focus this week as Kansas seems to have finally figured things out. (9) | |
| 9 | |
| Alabama went into LSU and spanked the Tigers 42-13, staving off CFP elimination for at least another week. OK, two weeks. (11) | |
| 10 | |
| Notre Dame threw more logs on the fire that is Florida State. It's a win that did not help their strength of schedule much, however. (10) | |
| 11 | |
| Ole Miss dominated Georgia with its defense in a 28-10 win. The Rebels could still play for the SEC title, but they will need some help along the way. (16) | |
| 12 | |
| The Bulldogs fall to the spot below both of the teams that defeated them. Last week, Georgia was the only team ranked ahead of the team that beat them. That problem has been resolved. The Bulldogs have nothing but must-win games from here on out, and it starts with hosting Tennessee this weekend. (3) | |
| 13 | |
| The Broncos end up dropping a spot despite a 28-21 win over Nevada because Ole Miss jumped them. This week's opponent, San Jose State, is the last one that currently has a winning record. (12) | |
| 14 | |
| The Mustangs are now in the driver's seat for the regular-season championship in the ACC after Miami's loss. And, of course, they could still get a bye in the CFP. (13) | |
| 15 | |
| The Aggies had a week off to get ready for some other Aggies -- New Mexico State. Coach Mike Elko probably hopes this feels like a bye week, too. (14) | |
| 16 | |
| The Wildcats need help to get back in the Big 12 title chase. They are part of a five-team pile at 4-2 behind BYU and Colorado. (19) | |
| 17 | |
| Colorado got its first taste of the tortilla toss at Texas Tech, but it did not matter. The Buffaloes picked up the win anyway to stay a game ahead of the pile and firmly in the Big 12 title race. (20) | |
| 18 | |
| The Cardinals will need a lot of help to get to play for the ACC title, but they could still be in play for one of the conference's better bowl games. (22) | |
| 19 | |
| The Tigers are finished now as a CFP at-large candidate, but with only two conference losses, they could still get a shot at the SEC title. Wouldn't that be something? (15) | |
| 20 | |
| The Cougars are in line for one of the better Pac-12 bowl games if they can finish at 11-1. The Alamo Bowl could be a destination. (21) | |
| 21 | |
| The Tigers got back on the winning track with a 24-14 win at Virginia Tech. They need the kind of wins that move the needle, and the game this week at Pitt could help that cause. (23) | |
| 22 | |
| The Gamecocks won at Vanderbilt and should make an appearance in the rankings this week. They still have a couple of tough games left, including the season finale at Clemson. (NR) | |
| 23 | |
| The Cyclones have now lost two in a row, most recently 45-36 to a 3-6 Kansas team. There is still a longshot chance for the Big 12 title. (17) | |
| 24 | |
| The Tigers need a quality win, desperately, but have no opponents left like that on their schedule. South Carolina is the best one left. (24) | |
| 25 | |
| The Black Knights will probably spend this week trying to figure out how to stop Notre Dame from doing to them what it did to Navy. (25) | |
First five out (alphabetical order): Duke, Illinois, Pittsburgh (18), Tulane, UNLV