The most intriguing matchup of the College Football Playoff first round takes place Saturday night in Columbus, Ohio, when No. 9 seed Tennessee goes on the road to face No. 8 seed Ohio State.
The Buckeyes (10-2) come into the game reeling off a 13-10 loss to Michigan that has prompted questions about coach Ryan Day's long-term future as the program's leader. Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork has defended Day, even telling a local radio station Day will "absolutely" be back in 2025, but a fanbase that has already seemed to turn on the head football coach will be even more outspoken if the Buckeyes lose this one.
Tennessee, also 10-2, had a big win (Alabama) and a bad loss (Arkansas) during a season where the Volunteers relied on a stout defense and a powerful Dylan Sampson-led run game to earn an at-large berth. The fanbase is fired up -- Ohio State is worried enough about Tennessee fans invading Ohio Stadium to issue a public plea to Buckeyes fans to not sell their tickets -- and believes in this team's chances to make a run.
Whichever team emerges victorious late Saturday night in freezing temperatures will prompt plenty of storylines that could have long-lasting ramifications.
Where to watch Ohio State vs. Tennessee live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 21 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Ohio Stadium -- Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Ohio State vs. Tennessee: Need to know
Ohio State needs to be more aggressive: In a disastrous 13-10 slugfest loss to Michigan, Ohio State ran the ball 26 times for a mere 77 yards. It's understandable why Ryan Day and Chip Kelly want to go to the run game with Quinshon Judkins and Treyveon Henderson back there, but the offensive duo waited way too long to abandon it against the Wolverines. Against a Tennessee run defense that ranks No. 8 nationally, Ohio State would be better served taking advantage of its star playmakers like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and letting quarterback Will Howard air it out more. There's risk there against the Vols' talented pass rush (ranked 11th in pressure rate), but it beats playing a low-scoring, run-heavy approach that'd play right into Tennessee's strengths. Ohio State needs Howard to limit mistakes (two interceptions against Michigan) and capitalize on the few big play chances he sees against Tim Banks' defense.
Does the cold matter? One of the biggest -- and perhaps most overplayed -- storylines headed into this weekend is how southern-based teams like Tennessee and SMU fare in winter conditions up north. With temperatures expected to dip below 30 degrees by the time the game kicks off and drop into the low 20s over the course of the evening, it will be one of the coldest games Tennessee has played in more than a decade. But, in theory, a Tennessee team that relies on its defense and run game should be well suited to handle the chilly weather. Regardless of whether it actually has a major impact, how Tennessee and SMU fare, despite being underdogs, will lead to narratives being formed.
Can Nico Iamaleava make the big play when it matters? Everyone knows Tennessee wants to run the ball with SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson, and that doesn't change in this game even against a talented defense as Ohio State; Sampson needs to get the ball often. But he can't do it alone, and tough matchups against Alabama and Georgia show that Iamaleava's ability or inability to make the big play can have a huge impact on the final result. In a win against Alabama, Iamaleava played well in the second half and helped keep Tennessee's offense balanced. Against a Georgia team awfully reminiscent of Ohio State, the Tennessee QB didn't make any major mistakes but only threw for 167 yards and struggled against the Bulldogs' pass rush. Nico is poised and conservative -- good attributes for a team like Tennessee -- but there's going to be a moment where he's going to have to let it loose against this Ohio State defense to keep it honest. Whether he can nail that moment could be the difference here.
Ohio State vs. Tennessee prediction, picks
All the pressure is on this all-in Ohio State team that likely has the nation's most talented roster but hasn't always played up to its potential. Does the home loss to Michigan continue to loom over this team and lead to some early boos? Or can the Buckeyes finally live up to the hype and come out firing against a very talented Tenenssee defense? I picked Tennessee to win in my gut-reaction bracket that I filled out as soon as the pairings were released, and because I'm an honorable man, I will stick with it. This one should be close, and Tennessee getting the points is the play either way. Pick: Tennessee +7.5
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football's bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
