If you had told someone before the 2020 season that Trevor Bauer would be the best pitcher in baseball, they probably wouldn't have believed you. Sure, Bauer had shown that upside before, but he also melted down in the second half of 2019 after seemingly tinkering his way out of being an elite pitcher. To say he would wind up winning the NL Cy Young would have taken guts. It would have been a bold prediction.
You're not always going to be right when you're making bold predictions -- that's kind of the point -- but when you do hit, you're going to hit big. Think Joey Gallo or Giancarlo Stanton. That's what I'm going for here, as I've got one bold prediction for the upcoming season for every team in the National League -- you can check out the American League bold predictions here. Plus, I went to Twitter to ask our audience for their bold predictions, too. In a way, think of these as a best-case scenario for every player or team mentioned.
Braves -- Ian Anderson finishes top-5 in NL Cy Young
Anderson is one of my guys, and like Luzardo, it's all about how many innings he can be counted on for. He threw at least 90 pitches in seven of his 10 starts last season, so the Braves clearly didn't treat him with kid gloves, and he sure looked like an ace in his first taste of the majors -- with a 1.59 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 51 innings, including the postseason. Anderson won't throw 200 innings this season, and he probably won't get to 180, either. And obviously, that ERA is probably going to be close to two runs higher. However, a low-to-mid-3.00s ERA in 160 innings -- his career-high is 135.2 in 2019, so that should be doable -- will have a ton of value this season.
And one from the crowd ...
Brewers -- Keston Hiura is a top-25 hitter
Hiura is another one of my guys, so it's no surprise my bold prediction involves him putting together a huge season. Yes, he was a huge disappointment in 2020, and the swing-and-miss is a significant issue -- he was bottom-five among qualifiers in zone contact rate in 2020. However, it doesn't actually take much dreaming to get Hiura to this level; he's already done it. In 143 career MLB games, Hiura is hitting .266/.338/.505 with 32 homers, 12 steals, 81 runs and 81 RBI. If that isn't good for a top-25 finish, it's not far. And if he cuts the strikeout rate to a more manageable level -- say, 25% instead of 32.3% -- he could be a superstar.
And one from the crowd ...
Cardinals -- Alex Reyes throws 100 innings with a sub-3.50 ERA
First off, I want to be clear: I'm rooting for Reyes to pull this off as much as I'm predicting it. Reyes is one of the best pitching prospects of the last decade, but he hasn't thrown 100 innings in a season since 2016. Injuries have completely derailed his career, but he still has a 2.48 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 72.2 innings in the majors despite all the issues. The Cardinals stated goal is to have Reyes get to 100 innings while pitching primarily in relief, and in a season where everyone's innings are going to be limited, he could still have a big impact for Fantasy in that role. He averaged 97 mph with his baseball in a spring outing Tuesday while throwing a slider, curveball, and changeup, so the stuff is still there. I love snagging Reyes in my Roto leagues with a late-round pick as a potential ratios stud. Plus, he's a dark-horse to be the closer if the Jordan Hicks and Giovanny Gallegos stumble.
And one from the crowd ...
Cubs -- Kris Bryant hits 30-plus HR and has 200-plus RBI+R
This mostly feels like a bold prediction because Bryant is being discounted so heavily for his (extremely rough) 2020 season. However, he had 29 homers or more in four of his first five seasons, while scoring or driving in at least 99 runs in four of five as well. The Cubs lineup as a whole is going to bounce back in a big way, and Bryant is going to be a big part of that. Heading into free agency, here's hoping he stays healthy and gets back to being one of the best players in the league. This might be the last hurrah for the Cubs World Series core, and I'd love to see them put together a surprise playoff run.
And one from the crowd ...
Diamondbacks -- Ketel Marte is the No. 1 second baseman
Marte's power breakthrough from 2019 sure looks like a fluke after he hit just two homers in 2020, but it's worth remembering he was dealing with a wrist injury during the season, the kind of thing that can sap power. Marte sustained the increased launch angle from his breakout season but saw his barrel rate collapse from 9.3% to 3.7%. It's fine to be skeptical of him repeating 2019, but I'm not -- he's a top-four 2B for me in the rankings, and I view him roughly the same tier as D.J. LeMahieu, my No. 1 guy at the position. That he's hit an MLB-high six batted balls at least 100 mph in spring training sure doesn't do anything to dampen my optimism.
And one from the crowd ...
Dodgers -- Will Smith finishes as the No. 1 catcher
He's No. 2 for me heading into the season, so maybe this isn't so bold, but I think he could be by far the best hitter at the position -- J.T. Realmuto's potential to steal double-digit bases is the key way in which he stands out. Smith took a step forward in just about every way in 2020, improving his average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and strikeout rate, and it's the combination of improved contact and plate discipline without having to sacrifice power that really impresses. Smith has still played just 91 games in the majors, so the sample size isn't huge, but his .268/.363/.574 line would make him easily the best hitter at the position if he repeated it in 2021. And, let's not forget, Smith had 40 homers and a .246/.347/.511 line in 161 games between Double-A and Triple-A as well, so it's not like this is totally out of nowhere.
And one from the crowd ...
Giants -- Buster Posey is a top-five catcher
Posey will be 34 on Opening Day and hasn't had double-digit homers since 2017, so I get the skepticism. But he really struggled with a hip injury in 2018 and 2019, an injury he had surgery to repair last offseason before sitting out the 2020 season. He's never lost the elite contact skills that have been his trademark, and if the surgery and the year off help him get his legs back under him, a .285 average and 15 homers could be enough to get Posey back near the top of the position. He's one of my favorite late-round catcher targets.
And one from the crowd ...
Marlins -- Sandy Alcantara finishes top 10 in NL Cy Young
On Tuesday's episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Frank Stampfl threw out a very interesting comp for Alcantara that I've never really considered: Carlos Martinez. Like Martinez, Alcantara throws extremely hard and generates a ton of weak contact, leading to better results than his peripherals might otherwise lead you to expect. And, in both cases, the strikeout rate is lower than you might expect from the quality of the stuff. At his peak, Martinez was a bit of a compiler, and Alcantara can be that kind of pitcher if he can sustain the gains he made in 2020 in both strikeout rate and walk rate. Alcantara is one of the better bets in the league to get to 190-plus innings, and if he does it with a 3.50 ERA, this one may not be so outlandish.
And one from the crowd ...
Mets -- Marcus Stroman finishes top 10 in NL Cy Young
I'm just happy to see Stroman back, because he's one of the most fun pitchers in the game. The last time we saw him, Stroman had a 3.22 ERA in 2020, and he had made some pretty dramatic changes to his pitch mix, throwing his sinker less than 40% of the time and increasing his cutter usage. During his time away from the game in 2020, Stroman wasn't just sitting around doing nothing: He added a splitter that could introduce yet another dimension to his game, and ideally, that would give him yet another swing and miss pitch, something he's been looking for. Stroman will never be a huge strikeout guy, but given how good he is at keeping the ball down and away from the barrel of the bat, any increase in strikeout rate is a good thing. He's a lot like Alcantara in a lot of ways, actually.
And one from the crowd ...
Nationals -- Max Scherzer wins the NL Cy Young
Scherzer has never been a pitcher who cares much about spring training, and we've never cared much about it for him either -- he hasn't had an ERA below 4.15 in the spring since 2017. Still, given that he appeared to take a step back in 2020, it was nice to see him strike out five in three perfect innings Wednesday. Not that I needed to see that to be optimistic about Scherzer -- he's been my No. 4 SP in the rankings all spring. Scherzer made it through last season without any recurrence of the back/neck issues that bothered him the previous season, with the lone start he left early coming because of a hamstring injury. Remove that start and he averaged more than six innings per start with a 3.66 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 66.1 innings of work. The ERA is a bit higher than we've gotten used to seeing from him, but given the strikeout and whiff rates he was still producing, I think that's as much an artifact of the small sample as anything else. There's always risk with a soon-to-be 37-year-old pitcher, and there are warning signs here. I'm willing to bet Scherzer's got one more elite season left in him.
And one from the crowd ...
Padres -- Chris Paddack is San Diego's best starter
Seeing as Paddack is a lot closer in ADP to Joe Musgrove, the Padres No. 4 starter, than he is to Blake Snell or Yu Darvish, so this one is definitely a bold one. Of course, this time a year ago, Paddack was a top-60 pick, going off the board five picks ahead of Darvish and just a round behind Snell, on average. He lost the feel for his fastball and got hammered last season, hence the newfound skepticism. However, he spent the offseason working on righting that issue and he thinks he's figured it out, so a bounceback seems like a good bet. I love buying players when their value dips, and the things everyone got so excited about with Paddack this time last year are still there.
And one from the crowd ...
Pirates -- Mitch Keller is an All Star
Hey, someone's gotta be an All Star for the Pirates. But this isn't just a pity vote for Keller: I really believe in his talent. Last year was a disaster for him, but it's also clear he was never quite healthy early on, as his velocity was way down before he went on the IL with an oblique strain. Keller maxed out at 97.4 mph and averaged 95.4 in his long start in the spring so far, so that issue is fixed so far. If he's actually healthy to start the season, Keller has flashed plenty of swing-and-miss in his brief MLB career, with two potential put-away breaking balls. He's a great late-round sleeper.
And one from the crowd ...
Phillies -- Spencer Howard is a top-40 SP
Howard had a lot of hype heading into 2020, and it's fair to say he totally failed to live up to it, sporting a 5.92 ERA and below-average 20.4% strikeout rate. However, he has been throwing harder early in spring, and he's still a 24-year-old recent top prospect with a four-pitch arsenal, so it's hard to hold too much against him given the strange nature of the 2020 season. Howard still has to earn a spot in the rotation in spring, and that's no guarantee, but he does have six strikeouts in three innings of work so far. A good start, and he'll be worth stashing even if he does start out at the alternate site because it shouldn't take long for him to get back to the majors.
And one from the crowd ...
Reds -- Eugenio Suarez leads the NL in HR
Suarez fell four homers shy of leading the NL in 2019, but he couldn't get back to that same level in 2020. However, the underlying numbers weren't that much different -- his strikeout rate was basically identical, and his barrel rate was actually slightly higher, as was his hard-hit rate. I don't expect Suarez to threaten for 50 homers again, but I do expect a big bounceback -- he's one of my favorite values inside of the top 75 right now.
And one from the crowd ...
Rockies -- C.J. Cron hits 35-plus HR with 100 RBI
Cron isn't even guaranteed a spot on the roster on Opening Day, but the prospect of him spending half his games in Coors Field is actually pretty exciting. Injuries limited Cron to just 52 plate appearances in 2020, but he had 55 homers between 2018 and 2019, despite playing just 265 games. He's been a Statcast darling for years, with a barrel rate north of 12.2% in three straight seasons. With Coors' BABIP and power inflating traits backing him up, it's not inconceivable Cron could have a 2020 Luke Voit-esque season.
And one from the crowd ...