"Spring training performance doesn't matter" makes for a good general guideline when scouting players for your Fantasy team. But general guidelines can be superseded by specifics, and there are specific instances when spring training performance makes all the difference.
It's not so much the numbers as what's behind the numbers, which may reveal the effectiveness of a new pitch or change in approach. Granted, it's not much to go on, but it's all we have right now. And given how the smallest changes can make the biggest difference for players with the requisite tool set to reach the major leagues, it pays to key in on those faintest signs of a breakthrough. Early detection could be what sets your team apart.
And of course, spring training performance can also be what wins a player a job, which represents as big of a boost to his Fantasy value as there is.
With that in mind, here are 20 big winners from spring training (not all are performance-related, for what it's worth).
Winners
An offseason spent with Driveline Baseball has improved Shane Bieber's velocity, reshaped his curveball, and seemingly restored the bat-missing ways of his 2019-21 seasons.
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Garrett Crochet's first foray into starting, at least as a professional, has gone well enough to earn him the opening day nod. His fastball is still zipping in at triple digits, only without the control issues that plagued him in his return from Tommy John surgery last year.
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It's not just all the home runs Oneil Cruz has hit, but how hard he's hit them, putting to rest any concerns of last year's gruesome leg injury setting him back mechanically. The strikeouts are becoming less of a concern as well.
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If Yasmani Grandal's bout with plantar fasciitis didn't secure Henry Davis' role behind the plate, then Davis' own hitting would have. The former No. 1 overall pick has looked much more comfortable than after his June arrival last year.
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Christian Encarnacion-Strand entered spring training looking like he'd have to split first base reps with Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India and Spencer Steer, but between a suspension for Noelvi Marte and injuries to TJ Friedl and Matt McLain, everyone has a spot to call his own now. Meanwhile, the 24-year-old has reminded everyone what a force he could be offensively -- and with a much lower strikeout rate than during his rookie season.
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The Tigers said they had a plan for Jack Flaherty when they signed him this offseason, and all he's done this spring is place second to Spencer Strider in total strikeouts, his fastball back to averaging what it did in 2019, when he placed fourth in NL Cy Young voting.
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Spring training began with Jonathan India nursing a case of plantar fasciitis and looking like the odd man out in the Reds' overcrowded infield. Thanks to a series of unforeseen events, it ends with him back as their everyday second baseman and leadoff hitter -- and hitting like he belongs.
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It's not as much what Michael Kopech did as what the White Sox did to him, shifting him to the bullpen about halfway through spring training and floating the idea of him being the closer. But that's only if he can hold off Jordan Leasure, a flamethrowing rookie and spring winner in his own right.
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With 44 minor-league games under his belt and no openings in the Rangers outfield, Wyatt Langford needed to force the issue to secure an opening day job, but force it he did, about as forcefully as one could force anything.
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With shortstop already spoken for and plenty of minor-league runway ahead of him still, Jackson Merrill wasn't even thought to be a candidate for a job at the start of spring training, but there he was starting in center field for the Padres' season-opening series in South Korea. The power and speed contributions should be decent, at least, but the contact rate is especially impressive.
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The game-changer for Christopher Morel was new manager Craig Counsell's decision to have him audition for third base this spring, freeing him from the outfield glut that likely would have condemned him to part-time duty. His power stroke wasn't on full display this spring, but we know he's plenty capable in that regard.
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Bailey Ober already had plenty of helium coming off a 3.43 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 last season. With his fastball ticking up a couple miles per hour this spring, the hype is at an all-time high.
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The former elite pitching prospect is finally getting his chance to start after injury concerns bumped him to the bullpen for a few years, and the expanded arsenal he's unveiled this spring only seems to have elevated his already considerable bat-missing skills.
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Ceddanne Rafaela looked like he'd be the odd man out of the Red Sox outfield after struggling in a late-season trial last year, but he's been a little more selective this spring, allowing his power/speed profile to shine through. He may be a little rough around the edges still, but his superlative defense should keep him in the lineup.
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While it was pretty obvious that playing through post-concussion symptoms wrecked Anthony Rizzo's 2023, it wasn't so obvious that an offseason of rest would be enough set him right. It's obvious now, though.
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For all the hand-wringing over his injury history, all it took was a couple overpowering outings this spring to get everyone back on board with Chris Sale, his ADP climbing about 50 spots from pre-spring drafts. His strikeout potential remains about as good as it gets.
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Coming off a miserable 2023, Luis Severino has addressed a pitch-tipping issue that the Mets said was an "easy fix" and looked more like the guy who put together a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 across 19 starts in 2022.
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Gavin Stone had his own bout with pitching-tipping last year, as well as a blister on his foot that messed him up mechanically, but now we're seeing how he put together a 1.48 ERA and 12.4 K/9 in the minors two years ago. His spring stat line doesn't even include an exhibition game against the Korean national team in which he struck out eight over 3 1/3 hitless innings.
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Determined to have sold out too hard for homers as a rookie, Anthony Volpe has worked to flatten his swing, keeping it in the zone longer, and enjoyed a much steadier performance the plate as a result. He may even find himself hitting leadoff again, ahead of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, with DJ LeMahieu likely sidelined by injury to begin the year.
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Considered an also-ran amid the Marlins' embarrassment of pitching riches at the start of camp, a series of injuries and Ryan Weathers' own strong performance have made the left-hander an integral part of the rotation to begin the year. He's shown improved command and velocity, both signs of a possible breakthrough at age 24.
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A few other winners: Alec Burleson, Jackson Chourio, Colton Cowser, Chase DeLauter, Bowden Francis, Luis Gil, Mitch Haniger, Jared Jones, Jordan Leasure, Tylor Megill, Max Meyer, Casey Mize, Ryne Nelson, Nick Pratto, Michael Soroka, Spencer Steer, Trevor Story, Robert Suarez, Tyler Wells, James Wood
And just to keep things somewhat balanced, here are five losers from spring training (excluding those who got injured, which are obvious losers).
Losers
Andrew Abbott hasn't pitched well, but it may not have mattered once the Reds determined both that Nick Martinez deserves a rotation spot and that Nick Lodolo is on the fast track to return from last year's leg injury. Abbott may get one turn but is likely the odd man out after that.
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Erick Fedde's final spring start was his best, but the strikeouts haven't been there like we saw during his MVP season in Korea, which suggests that his new arsenal might not play the same on this side of the Pacific. He may succeed by virtue of his ground-ball rate alone, but that's harder to gauge over such a small sample.
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Jackson Holliday performed so well throughout spring training that it seemed like a foregone conclusion he'd be the Orioles' starting second baseman, as GM Mike Elias teased early on, but alas, he was sent down to refine his game for an undetermined length of time, with lowly Ramon Urias left to fill his void.
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The story out of Braves camp is that Jarred Kelenic has spent the spring overhauling his mechanics and is only now beginning to get his timing down, which may well be true. But in the meantime, they've backed off their initial goal of having him play every day, instead signing Adam Duvall to platoon with him.
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Relax, your Yoshinobu Yamamoto pick should still pay off in the long run, but between his shaky spring and ugly season debut against the Padres in South Korea, it's fair to say his transition to a new baseball hasn't been a seamless one. Patience may be required for what was surely a big investment.
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A few other losers: Wilyer Abreu, Adbert Alzolay, Junior Caminero, Kyle Manzardo, Yuki Matsui, Carlos Rodon, Tanner Scott, Victor Scott, Paule Skenes, Mark Vientos, Masyn Winn
