I like these players more than you do.
That's the gist of this article, right? The ADP data tells me where you draft them on average, and I say it's too low.
Of course, it stands to reason that many of the players I like more than you do were featured in my Sleepers 2.0 already. In fact, probably the most representative of such players were featured there. Excluding them from this article would be a dereliction of sorts, and yet I'd prefer not to keep writing about the same players over and over again. So rather than rehash the same material, how about I just rattle off the names real quick? If you'd like to hear more about any, again, you'll find it in my Sleepers 2.0.
Likewise, my Breakouts 2.0 features a couple players who I think are among the most undervalued on Draft Day. You can see them below and read more about them here.
Now, then, for some fresh faces.
Note that ADP values come from FantasyPros, which brings together data from several different sites. Its default format is standard 5x5 Rotisserie, so I've provided my own Rotisserie rankings as a comparison.
Jose Altuve had the seventh-highest point-per-game average among all hitters in 2023, which I understand isn't the scoring format reflected by this ADP. But in 5x5 scoring as well, he's a genuine stud at a position with few and a clearer standout in batting average than either Ozzie Albies or Marcus Semien.
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So one down season -- in which his 162-game pace was still 35 homers and 106 RBI, by the way -- is enough to steer us away from a player who's been a second-round fixture for nearly a decade? What's more is Manny Machado has a perfectly good explanation for his substandard production, having played through a case of tennis elbow that has since been resolved surgically.
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Only eight players had at least 20 homers and at least 30 steals last year, and the rest are all going in Rounds 1 and 2. Concerns over Joshua Lowe's playing time are likely what move him down draft boards, but he did what he did with those same concerns last year and is more likely to see his playing time improved now that he's established.
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Pace out Zack Gelof's numbers as a rookie last year, and you have a 30/30 man at second base, which is a particularly rare and beneficial find. No doubt, skepticism is reasonable given the high strikeout rate and middling exit velocities, but Matt McLain has those same concerns and goes 80 picks earlier, on average.
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It's true Craig Kimbrel has had some high-profile meltdowns in recent years, but would you believe he has a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 12.7 K/9 since the start of 2021? Sounds like a stud closer to me! Better yet, the Orioles signed him for the explicit purpose of providing a one-year stopgap while Felix Bautista is recovering from Tommy John surgery, so Kimbrel won't have to work his way into the role this time around.
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Gavin Williams was every bit the caliber of prospect that Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miller, and Tanner Bibee were and got off to a better start than all of them. They each got at least six more starts than him, though, and that's about the time when they found another gear and put some distance between themselves and him in the rankings.
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Aren't we being a little quick to bury a guy who we all presumed was an emerging ace at this time a year ago? Yes, the movement profile of his fastball changed, which the eggheads will tell you is a deal-breaker, but that's more a case of him doing something wrong than no longer being able to do right. And by the looks of him this spring, Cristian Javier may have gotten to the bottom of the issue.
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It's true the Phillies have been mum about the closer role since Craig Kimbrel departed this offseason, but does anyone make more sense than Jose Alvarado, who filled in for Kimbrel from time to time last year and has been a closer-in-waiting for as long as anyone can remember? Not sure the modicum of uncertainty justifies the 60-pick gap between him and Pete Fairbanks.
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Rhys Hoskins was basically a lock for 30 homers during his years with the Phillies, and after a year spent recovering from a torn ACL, there's no reason to think he'll be any different. He should have a prominent spot in the Brewers lineup, too, while playing his home games in a venue where he absolutely mashes.
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With the signing of David Robertson, there seems to be some uncertainty over who will begin the year as Rangers closer, which manager Bruce Bochy hasn't exactly downplayed. But the way he used Jose Leclerc in the playoffs last year, bringing him in 13 times, often in the highest-leverage spot, reveals a certain level of trust, particularly since Leclerc made good on it. I say he's closer to Clay Holmes than Carlos Estevez, though he isn't drafted like it.
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J.P. Crawford learned to elevate the ball to his pull side during his time with Driveline Baseball last offseason, and it all clicked for him at the end of last year, his seven September home runs representing his typical full-season total. Maybe it won't continue, but his leadoff status and natural on-base skills will make him a must-start player if it does.
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I'm guessing people are skeptical over Sal Frelick's capacity as a base-stealer, but that's absolutely going to be part of his game in the long run. He's fast enough and showed the inclination for it in the minors. His disciplined, all-fields approach could make him a batting standout as well.
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The non-Ohtani DH-onlys
Sure, you may draft Shohei Ohtani or an extra first baseman and foreclose the possibility of taking one of these four for your DH spot, but if you can leave that spot open long enough to have a chance at them, they're among the biggest bargains you'll find on Draft Day.
It starts with Marcell Ozuna, who's coming off a 40-homer, 100-RBI season and will continue to bat in the heart of a juggernaut lineup. The difference between him and Adolis Garcia is only about 100 spots, if you believe Garcia's outfield eligibility is worth that. Though set back by injuries in recent years, Eloy Jimenez and Byron Buxton have delivered early-round numbers in the past, and each has been at the top of his game this spring. Even J.D. Martinez, despite not having a team yet, could turn out to be the steal of the draft when he finally signs somewhere. His 162-game pace with the Dodgers last year was 47 homers and 148 RBI. Granted, he won't actually play 162 games and won't be back with the Dodgers either, but sluggers of his caliber simply shouldn't be available after the likes of Braxton Garrett and Brayan Bello.
